Regional variability of temperature extremes in the maritime climate of Turkey: a case study to develop agricultural adaptation strategies under climate change

  • Hüseyin Toros
  • Mehdi Mokari
  • Mohsen AbbasniaEmail author
Original Article


Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional economies and in particular societies. In this study, four temperature indices analyzed from 15 coastal weather stations during the period of 1961–2016. Observation records indicate that the diurnal temperature range has decreased in the last decades because of changes in the lower difference between the minimum and maximum temperatures. All of the studied meteorological stations in coastal regions have shown a negative trend in the cold spell duration and a positive trend in the warm spell duration. The trend analysis has shown a greater increase in the warm spell duration for lower latitude as well as a greater decrease in the cold spell duration for higher latitude over the analyzed period. Because of this behavior, these stations categorized into two large groups. The southern coastal region is somewhat wet and warm climate, this caused the diurnal temperature range has not been much enough for the agricultural production process which need enough differences between daytime base maximum and nighttime base minimum of the temperatures. As a result, the growth season length has increased by 1 day on the southern coastal region compared to the northern coastal region over Turkey during the last decades.


Global warming Maritime climate Coastal stations Temperature extremes Turkey 



The authors would like to thank the Turkey State Meteorological Service for accessing the daily meteorological data.


  1. Abbasnia M, Toros H (2018a) Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey. Pure Appl Geophys 175:3861–3873. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Abbasnia M, Toros H (2018b) Monitoring observed changes in warm-days extremes over Turkey. Nat Resour Conserv Res 2018(1):1–4. Google Scholar
  3. Abbasnia M, Tavousi T, Khosravi M (2016) Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 52(4):371–377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Caloiero T (2017) Trend of monthly temperature and daily extreme temperature during 1951–2012 in New Zealand. Theor Appl Climatol 129(1–2):111–127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cid A, Menéndez M, Castanedo S, Abascal AJ, Méndez FJ, Medina R (2016) Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme storm surge events in southern Europe. Clim Dyn 46(5–6):1503–1516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Coumou D, Robinson A (2013) Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. Environ Res Lett 8(3):034018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dogan M, Ulke A, Cigizoglu HK (2015) Trend direction changes of Turkish temperature series in the first half of the 1990s. Theor Appl Climatol 121(1–2):23–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Easterling DR, Evans JL, Groisman PY, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81(3):417–426CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fauchereau N, Trzaska S, Rouault M, Richard Y (2003) Rainfall variability and changes in southern Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context. Nat Hazards 29(2):139–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M, Lister D (2001) African climate change: 1900–2100. Clim Res 17(2):145–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. IPCC (2013) (2013) Climate change: the physical science basis. The contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment, report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  12. Jones PD, Moberg A (2003) Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J Clim 16(2):206–223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Karabulut M, Gürbüz M, Korkmaz H (2008) Precipitation and temperature trend analyses in Samsun. J Int Environ Appl Sci 3(5):399–408Google Scholar
  14. Kerr RA (2009) what happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science 326(5949):28–29. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Lobell D, Asner G (2003) Response to comment on climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields. Science 300(5625):1505–1505.‏CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B et al (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and West Africa. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D14102. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Pal JS, Eltahir EA (2016) Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nat Clim Change 6(2):197–200CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, … Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101(27):9971–9975CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367(6459):133–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Sensoy S, Türkoğlu N, Akçakaya A, Ekici M, Demircan M, Ulupinar Y et al. (2013) Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. In: sixth atmospheric science symposium (ITU), Istanbul, pp 24–26Google Scholar
  21. Solomon et al (2007) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC, vol. 4. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  22. Stooksbury DE, Michaels PJ (1994) Climate change and large-area corn yield in the southeastern United States. Agron J 86(3):564–569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Tayanç M, Karaca M, Yenigün O (1997) Annual and seasonal air temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in relation to air pollutants in Turkey. J Geophys Res Atmos 102(D2):1909–1919CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Toros H (2012) Spatio-temporal variation of daily extreme temperatures over Turkey. Int J Climatol 32(7):1047–1055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Yang Y, Tang J, Wang S, Liu G (2018) Differential impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C warming on extreme events over China using statistically downscaled and bias-corrected CESM low-warming experiment. Geophys Res Lett 45(18):9852–9860.&#8207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N et al (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D22104. CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of MeteorologyIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkey
  2. 2.Department of Water Science and EngineeringKashmar Higher Education InstituteKashmarIran

Personalised recommendations