Modeling Earth Systems and Environment

, Volume 5, Issue 1, pp 331–352 | Cite as

Integration of GIS and statistical approach in mapping of urban sprawl and predicting future growth in Midnapore town, India

  • Santanu Dinda
  • Kousik Das
  • Nilanjana Das Chatterjee
  • Subrata GhoshEmail author
Original Article


The spatial expansion of cities appears as an accelerated phenomenon and known as urban sprawl. Usually, the exertion of creating smart growth and sustainable growth becomes in curb because urban sprawl is an unplanned and haphazard growth of urban areas. Therefore, planners should be accurately investigate the trend, patterns and directions of urban growth for sustainable management. This study highlights the existing pattern of the urban sprawl of Midnapore town from 1991 to 2017, using the Normalized Difference Built-up Index and Shannon’s entropy and simulated urban growth of 2030 by Markov chain model. Without overlooking the proviso of scientific urban research, an intensive field survey had been done to find out spatial determinants of urban expansion. Four hypotheses have been selected and factor analysis was applied with the multiple regression analysis to find out the factors of urban growth. Comparatively low land price, distribution of reclaimed land, the benefit of open space in the urban fringe and an opportunity of income are major factors of urban growth. Finally, the potential strategies have been proposed for sustainable management and conservation of the local environment.


Urban sprawl Shannon’s entropy Factor analysis Markov chain model Sustainable management Midnapore town 



The authors are thankful to Miss. Sanchita Barman for cooperating field survey and also debt to the respondents of the study area for their valuable response. Author S. Ghosh and S. Dinda are are grateful to the University Grant Commission (UGC), India, for their financial support (research fellowship). The authors are also like to thanks to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declared that they have no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

40808_2018_536_MOESM1_ESM.docx (30 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 29 KB)


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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Geography and Environment ManagementVidyasagar UniversityMidnaporeIndia

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