Advertisement

Environmental Processes

, Volume 6, Issue 1, pp 135–153 | Cite as

Impact of Climate Variability on the Rice Yield in Uttar Pradesh: an Agro-Climatic Zone Based Study

  • Diva Bhatt
  • Geetika Sonkar
  • R. K. MallEmail author
Original Article
  • 88 Downloads

Abstract

In the backdrop of the established fact that the climate and agricultural produce foster a close-knit relation, the present study explores the impacts of climate variability on the rice yields across diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India. The time-series non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to study long term (both annual and seasonal) weather and yield data sets. Minimum temperature, encompassing all the zones, was found to be increasing within the range of 0.06 to 0.44 °C per decade. The ‘kharif’ season maximum temperature trends were found increasing in most zones. In terms of annual and seasonal rainfall trends, the results were mostly non-significant, except for Bhabhar and Tarai Zone which had witnessed a very high decadal trend indicating towards the occurrences of intense rainfall events. North Eastern Plain Zone needs a special mention owing to its large number of extreme rainfall events in three categories (>50 to <100 mm/day; >100 to <150 mm/day; >150 mm/day). Considering the annual/seasonal temperature and rainfall variability in the region, the warming trend along with spatio-temporally uncertain rainfall is likely to inflict significant impact upon the rice crop. Consequently, there is a dire need to devise strategies capable of dealing with the impacts of the prevailing climate variability on rice yields in this state of India through development of suitable adaptation options for sustainable production. The continuous and rigorous studies into this field of agro-meteorology subjected to impact assessment call for international action plans that are designed in a frame of ‘bottom-up approach’ or a ‘local to regional to country level’ strategic implementation of adaptation options to sustain yields in the rice fields.

Keywords

Adaptation Agro-climatic zones Climate variability Kharif crop Extreme events 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Authors wish to thank the Climate Change Programme, Department of Science and Technology-New Delhi and University Grants Commission, New Delhi for financial support for this study. The rainfall data used in the study was obtained from the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi that is thankfully acknowledged.

Supplementary material

40710_2019_360_MOESM1_ESM.docx (46 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 45 kb)

References

  1. Aggarwal PK, Mall RK (2002) Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Clim Chang 52:331–343CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ara I, Lewis M, Ostendorf B (2017) Understanding the spatially variable effects of climate change on rice yield for three ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981–2010. ID 6287156: 1-11. doi.org/10.1155/2017/6287
  3. AshaLatha KV, Gopinath M, Bhat ARS (2012) Impact of climate change on rain-fed agriculture in India: a case study of Dharwad. Int J Environ Sci Dev 3:368–371Google Scholar
  4. Bhatta GD, Aggarwal PK (2015) Coping with weather adversity and adaptation to climatic variability: a cross-country study of small holder farmers in South Asia. Clim Dev.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1016883
  5. Bhattacharya T, Panda RK (2013) Effect of climate change on rice yield at Kharagpur, West Bengal. IOSRJ Agr Vet Sci 4:6–12Google Scholar
  6. Birthal PS, Negi DS, Khan Md T (2015) Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems. Food Policy 56:1–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chao C, Guang-sheng Z, Li Z (2014) Impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data. J Integ Agri 13:1555–1564CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen C, Baethgen WE, Robertson A (2013) Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China plain 1961–2003. Clim Chang 116:767–788CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chung NT, Jintrawet A, Promburom P (2015) Impacts of seasonal climate variability on rice production in the central highlands of Vietnam. Agri. Agricult Sci Proced 5:83–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Das PK, Chakraborty A, Seshasai MVR (2014) Spatial analysis of temporal trend of rainfall and rainy days during the Indian summer monsoon season using daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data for the period of 1971–2005. Meteorol Appl 21:481–493CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda SK (2007) Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Clim Chang 85:299–321CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. DES (2015) Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  13. Devkota KP, Manschadi AM, Devkota M, Lamers JPA, Ruzibaev E, Egamberdiev O, Amiri E, Vlek PLG (2013) Simulating the impact of climate change on rice phenology and grain yield in irrigated drylands of Central Asia. J Appl Meteo Clim 52:2033–2050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dubey DP, Kumar G (2014) Trends in precipitation extremes over Central India. Mausam 65:103–108Google Scholar
  15. Duncan J, Dash J, Atkinson PM (2015) Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing. Glob Change Biol 21:1541–1551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan MS, Xavier PK (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314:1442–1445CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M (2008) Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int J Climatol 28:1453–1469CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Guhathakurta P, Sreejith OP, Menon PA (2011) Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. J Earth Syst Sci 120:359–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hatfield JL, Prueger JH (2015) Temperature extremes: effect on plant growth and development. Weather Clim Extrm 10:4–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. IMD (2012) Climate Profile of India, India, Met Monograph, Environment Meteorology-01/2010. (Eds. SD Attri and LS Rathore. India Meteorological Department New Delhi,129Google Scholar
  21. IPCC (2013) Working group 1, fifth assessment report on climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Switzerland, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  22. Jagadish SVK, Muthurajan R, Oane R, Wheeler TR, Heuer S, Bennett J, Craufurd PQ (2010) Physiological and proteomic approaches to address heat tolerance during anthesis in rice (Oryza sativa L.). J Exp Bot 61:143–156CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Jain SK (2011) Population rise and growing water scarcity in India – revised estimates and required initiatives. Curr Sci 101:271–276Google Scholar
  24. Koshal AK (2014) Changingcurrent scenario of rice-wheat system in indo-Gangetic plain region of India. Int J Sci Res Publi 4:1–13Google Scholar
  25. Kothawale DR, Kumar KK, Srinivasan G (2012) Spatial asymmetry of temperature trends over India and possible role of aerosols. Theor Appl Climatol 110:63–280CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Krishnan P, Ramakrishnan B, Reddy KR, Reddy VR (2011) High-temperature effects on rice growth, yield, and grain quality. In: Sparks DL (ed) Advances in Agronomy. Academic Press, Burlington, pp 87–206Google Scholar
  27. Kumar KK, Sahai AK, Kumar KK, Patwardhan SK, Mishra PK, Revadekar JV, Pant GB (2006) High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century. Curr Sci 90:334–345Google Scholar
  28. Kumar NS, Aggarwal PK, Rani S, Jain S, Chauhan N (2011) Impact of climate change on crop productivity in Western Ghats, coastal and northeastern regions of India. Curr Sci 101:332–341Google Scholar
  29. Liu S, Waqas MA, Wang S, Xiong X, Wan Y (2017) Effects of increased levels of atmospheric CO and high temperatures on rice growth and quality. PLoS ONE 12:e0187724.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187724 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Roberts JC (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Mall RK, Gupta BRD (2000) Wheat yield forecast models based on meteorological parameters. J Agrometeorol 2(1):83–87Google Scholar
  32. Mall RK, Gupta BRD (2002) Comparison of evapotranspiration models. Mausam 53:119–126Google Scholar
  33. Mall RK, Singh R, Gupta A, Srinivasan G, Rathore LS (2006) Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: a review. Clim Chang 78:445–478CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Mall RK, Singh N, Singh KK, Sonkar G, Gupta A (2018) Evaluating the performance of RegCM4.0 climate model for climate change impact assessment on wheat and rice crop in diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India. Clim Chang 149(3):503–515CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mittal S, Ray S (2015) What’s the missing link? Reviewing climate change polices in context of Indian agricultural sector. Asian Soc Sci 11:268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. MoEF (2010) Climate change and India: a 4x4 assessment a sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s. Ministry of Environment & Forests, Govt. of India, INCCA Report 2010Google Scholar
  37. Mondal P, Jain M, De Fries RS, Galford GL, Small C (2015) Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions. J Environ Manag 148:21–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Nagarajan S, Jagadish SVK, Hariprasad AS, Thomar AK, Anand A, Aggarwal PK (2010) Local climate affects growth, yield and grain quality of aromatic and non-aromatic rice in northwestern India. Agric Ecosyst Environ 138:274–281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. NAPCC (2008) National Action Plan on climate change. Government of India, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  40. NATCOM (2012) India: second National Communication to the United Nations framework convention on climate change-II. Ministry of environment and forests. Government of India, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  41. Naylor RL, Battisti DS, Vimont DJ, Falcon WP, Burke MB (2007) Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:7752–7757CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Oza M, Kishtawal CM (2015) Spatio-temporal changes in temperature over India. Curr Sci 109Google Scholar
  43. Pai DS, Sridhar L, Badwaik MR, Rajeevan M (2015) Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901–2010) high resolution (0.25× 0.25) gridded rainfall data set. Clim Dyn:1–22Google Scholar
  44. Pathak H, Pramanik P, Khanna M, Kumar A (2014) Climate change and water availability in Indian agriculture: impacts and adaptation. Indian J Agr Sci 84:671–679Google Scholar
  45. Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:9971–9975CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Population 2016 World Bank (2016) World Development Indicators database from databank.worldbank.org/data/download/POP.pdf. Accessed 6 Feb 2019
  48. Prasanna V (2014) Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total food-grain yield over India. J. Earth Syst Sci 123:1129–1145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Preethi B, Ravedkar JV (2012) Kharif food grain yield and daily precipitation over India. Int J Climatol:1–9Google Scholar
  50. Rani YS, Jayasree G, Sesha Sai MVR, Reddy MD (2011) Impact of climate change on rice production in Nalgonda District, Andhra Pradesh using ORYZA 2000 model. J Rice Res 4:21–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Rao BB, Chowdhary PS, Rao VUM, Venkateswarlu B (2014) Rising minimum temperature trends over India in recent decades: implications for agricultural production. Glob Planet Change 117:1–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Ravedkar JV, Preethi B (2012) Statistical analysis of the relationship between summer monsoon precipitation extremes and food grain yield over India. Int J Climatol:419–429Google Scholar
  53. Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC (2015) Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat Commun 6(5989):1–9.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6989 Google Scholar
  54. Rebetez M, Beniston M (1998) Changes in sunshine duration are correlated with changes in daily temperature range this century: an analysis of Swiss climatological data. Geophys Res Lett 25:3611–3613CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Rezaei EE, Webber H, Gaiser T, Naab J, Ewert F (2015) Heat stress in cereals: mechanisms and modelling. Eur J Agron 64:98–113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Sehgal VK, Singh MR, Chaudhary A, Jain N, Pathak H (2013) Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change: district level assessment in the indo-Gangetic Plains. pp. 74. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  58. Selvaraju R (2003) Impact of El Nino-southern oscillation on Indian food grain production. Int JClimatol 23:187–206CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Singh N, Sontakke NA (2002) On climatic fluctuations and environmental changes of the indo-Gangetic Plains, India. Clim Chang 52:287–313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Singh KK, Mall RK, Singh RS, Srivastava AK (2010) Evaluation of CANEGRO sugarcane model in East Uttar Pradesh, India. J Agrometeorol 12(2):181–186Google Scholar
  61. Singh S, Singh RK, Singh R (2013) Enhancing rice and wheat production by bridging yield gap in western Uttar Pradesh of India. J Wheat Res 5:43–47Google Scholar
  62. Singh PK, Singh KK, Rathore LS, Baxla AK, Bhan SC, Gupta A, Gohain GB, Balasubramanian R, Singh RS, Mall RK (2016) Rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield gap using the CERES-rice model of climate variability for different agroclimatic zones of India. Curr Science 11:405–413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Singh N, Mall RK, Sonkar G, Singh KK, Gupta A (2018) Evaluation of RegCM4 climate model for assessment of climate change impact on crop production. Mausam 69(3):389–400Google Scholar
  64. Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB (2018) Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLoS ONE 13: e0201426.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426
  65. Subash N, Ram Mohan HS, Sikka AK (2011) Decadal frequency and trends of extreme excess/deficit rainfall during the monsoon season over different meteorological sub-divisions of India. Hydrolog Sci J 56:1090–1109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Swaminathan MS, Kesavan PC (2012) Agricultural research in an era of climate change. Agr Res 1:3–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Teng PPS, Caballero-Anthony M, Lassa JA (2016) The future of rice security under climate change, NTS report no. 4. Centre for Non Traditional Security Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, pp 4Google Scholar
  68. van Oort PAJ, Zwart SJ (2017) Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes. Glob Change Biol 24:1029–1045CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Wang P, Zhang Z, Chen Y, Wei X, Feng B, Tao F (2015) How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China? Climatic Change 1-16Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.DST-Mahamana Center of Excellence in Climatic Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable DevelopmentBanaras Hindu UniversityVaranasiIndia

Personalised recommendations