Advertisement

The Response of Subtropical Highs to Climate Change

  • Annalisa Cherchi
  • Tercio Ambrizzi
  • Swadhin Behera
  • Ana Carolina Vasques Freitas
  • Yushi Morioka
  • Tianjun Zhou
Climate Change and Atmospheric Circulation (R Chadwick, Section Editor)
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on Climate Change and Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

Purpose of Review

Subtropical highs are an important component of the climate system with clear implications on the local climate regimes of the subtropical regions. In a climate change perspective, understanding and predicting subtropical highs and related climate is crucial to local societies for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. We review the current understanding of the subtropical highs in the framework of climate change.

Recent Findings

Projected changes of subtropical highs are not uniform. Intensification, weakening, and shifts may largely differ in the two hemispheres but may also change across different ocean basins. For some regions, large inter-model spread representation of subtropical highs and related dynamics is largely responsible for the uncertainties in the projections. The understanding and evaluation of the projected changes may also depend on the metrics considered and may require investigations separating thermodynamical and dynamical processes.

Summary

The dynamics of subtropical highs has a well-established theoretical background but the understanding of its variability and change is still affected by large uncertainties. Climate model systematic errors, low-frequency chaotic variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, and sensitivity to climate forcing are all sources of uncertainty that reduce the confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, including the subtropical highs. Compensating signals, coming from a tug-of-war between components associated with direct carbon dioxide radiative forcing and indirect sea surface temperature warming, impose limits that must be considered.

Keywords

Subtropical highs Climate projections Atmospheric circulation Model biases 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped in improving the shape and content of the manuscript. A special thank is due to Dr. X Chen for the help in redrawing Fig. 1 using CMIP5 model results.

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

References

  1. 1.
    Saha K. Monsoon over Australia (region – IV). In: Tropical circulation systems and monsoons. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag; 2010.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03373-5_7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Miyasaka T, Nakamura H. Structure and mechanisms of the southern hemisphere summertime subtropical anticyclones. J Clim. 2010;23:2115–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Gamble DW, Parnell DB, Curtis S. Spatial variability of the Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to North Atlantic high circulation. Int J Climatol. 2008;28:343–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Li W, Li L, Fu R, Deng Y, Wang H. Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States. J Clim. 2011;24:1499–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Luchetti NT, Nieto Ferreira R, Rickenbach TM, Nissenbaum MR, McAuliffe JD. Influence of the North Atlantic subtropical high on wet and dry sea-breeze events in North Carolina, United States. Investigaciones Geograficas. 2017;68:9–25.  https://doi.org/10.14198/INGEO2017.68.01.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Zhou T, Gong D, Li J, Li B. Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon - recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorol Z. 2009a;18(4):455–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Behera SK, Yamagata T. Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett. 2001;28:327–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Manatsa D, Morioka Y, Behera SK, Matarira CH, Yamagata T. Impact of Mascarene high variability on the east African “short rains”. Clim Dyn. 2014;42(5–6):1259–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Doyle ME, Barros VR. Midsummer low-level circulation and precipitation in subtropical South America and related sea surface temperature anomalies in the South Atlantic. J Clim. 2002;15(23):3394–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Reboita MS, Gan MA, Da Rocha RP, Ambrizzi T. Precipitation regimes in South America: a bibliographic review. J Meteor. 2010;25:185–204. Available in PortugueseGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Gilliland JM, Keim BD. Position of South Atlantic anticyclone and its impact on surface conditions across Brazil. J Appl Meteor Clim doi. 2018;57:535–53.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0178.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Sun S, Ying M. Subtropical high anomalies over the western pacific and its relations to the Asian monsoon and SST anomaly. Adv Atmos Sci. 1999;16:559–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Ding YH, Chan JCL. The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteor Atmos Phys. 2005;89:117–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Bannister AJ, Boothe MA, Carr LE, Elsberry RL (1997) Southern hemisphere application of the systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting: part I: environmental structure characteristics. Tech Rep NPS-MR-98-001 96 pp Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Wu L, Wang B, Geng S. Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophys Res Lett. 2005;32:L18703.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Stowasser M, Wang Y, Hamilton K. Tropical cyclone changes in the western North Pacific in a global warming scenario. J Clim. 2007;20:2378–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Klein SA, Hartmann DL. The seasonal cycle of low stratiform clouds. J Clim. 1993;6:1587–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Rahn DA, Garreaud R. Marine boundary layer over the subtropical southeast Pacific during VOCALS-REx—part 1: mean structure and diurnal cycle. Atmos Chem Phys. 2010;10:4491–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Wei W, Wenhong Li, Yi Deng, Song Yang, Jonathan H. Jiang, Lei Huang, W. Timothy Liu (2017) Dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high and the marine boundary layer clouds in boreal summer. Clim Dyn DOI  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3750-6, 50, 2457, 2469.
  20. 20.
    Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ. Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim. 2001;14:3192–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Li L, Li W, Kushnir Y. Variation of the North Atlantic subtropical high western ridge and its implication to southeastern US summer precipitation. Clim Dyn. 2012a;39:1401–12.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1214-y.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Sun X, Cook KH, Vizy EK. The South Atlantic subtropical high: climatology and interannual variability. J Clim. 2017;30:3279–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Cai W, Cowan T, Thatcher M. Rainfall reductions over southern hemisphere semi-arid regions: the role of subtropical dry zone expansion. Sci Rep. 2012;2:702.  https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Scheff J, Frierson D. Twenty-first-century multimodel subtropical precipitation declines are mostly midlatitude shifts. J Clim. 2012;25:4330–47.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00393.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Hu Y, Zhou C, Liu J. Observational evidence for poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation. Adv Atm Sci. 2011;28:33–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Nguyen H, Hendon HH, Lim EP, Boschat G, Maloney E, Timbal B. Variability of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere: a regional perspective. Clim Dyn. 2018;50:129–42.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00832-017-3592-2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Seager R, Murthugudde R, Naik N, Clement A, Gordon N, Miller J. Air-sea interaction and the seasonal cycle of the subtropical anticyclones. J Clim. 2003;16:1948–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ. Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc. 1996;122:1385–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Cherchi A, Annamalai H, Masina S, Navarra A. South Asian summer monsoon and the eastern Mediterranean climate: the monsoon-desert mechanism in CMIP5 simulations. J Clim. 2014;27:6877–903.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00530.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Tyrlis E, Lelieveld J, Steil B. The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: influence of the South Asian monsoon. Clim Dyn. 2013;40:1103–23.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1258-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Shaffrey LC, Hoskins BJ, Lu R. The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc. 2002;128:2607–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Liu Y, Wu G, Ren R. Relationship between the subtropical anticyclone and diabatic heating. J Clim. 2004;17:682–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Held IM, Hou AY. Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a nearly inviscid atmosphere. J Atm Sci. 1980;37:515–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Held IM (2000) The general circulation of the atmosphere. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Geophysical Fluid Dyamics Program, Woods Hole, Mass (available at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/files/user_files/ih/lectures/woods_hole.pdf).
  35. 35.
    Lee SK, Mechoso CR, Wang C, Neelin JD. Interhemispheric influence of the northern summer monsoons on southern subtropical anticyclones. J Clim. 2013;26:10193–204.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00106.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Richter I, Mechoso CR, Robertson AW. What determines the position and intensity of the South Atlantic anticyclone in austral winter? - an AGCM study. J Clim. 2008;21:214–29.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1802.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Wang C, Lee S-K, Mechoso CR. Interhemispheric influence of the Atlantic warm pool on the southeastern Pacific. J Clim. 2010;23:404–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Hastenrath S. Climate dynamics of the tropics: Kluwer; 1991. p. 488.Google Scholar
  39. 39.
    Tao SY, Chen LX. A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang CP, Krishnamurti TN, editors. Review of monsoon meteorology. London: Oxford Univ Press; 1987. p. 353.Google Scholar
  40. 40.
    Du Y, Yang I, Xie SP. Tropical Indian Ocean influence on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Nino. J Clim. 2011;24:315–22.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3890.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Kosaka Y, Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Min YM, Lee JY. Limitations of seasonal predictability for summer climate over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific. J Clim. 2012;25:7574–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 42.
    Wang B, Xiang BQ, Lee JY. Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Nat Academy Sci. 2013;110:2718–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. 43.
    Zhang I, Zhou T. Drought over East Asia: a review. J Clim. 2015;28:3375–99.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00259.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Li T, Wang B, Wu B, Zhou T, Chang CP, Zhang R. Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Nino: a review. J Meteor Res. 2017;31:987–1006.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-7147-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. 45.
    Nagata R, Mikami T. Changes in the relationship between summer rainfall over Japan and the North Pacific subtropical high, 1901-2000. Int J Climatol. 2017;37:3291–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. 46.
    Dong X, Li R, Fan F. Comparison of the two modes of the Western Pacific subtropical high between early and late summer. Atm Sci Lett. 2017;18:153–60.  https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.737.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. 47.
    Qian W, Shi J. Tripole precipitation pattern and SST variations linked with extreme zonal activities of the western Pacific subtropical high. Int J Climatol. 2017;37:3018–35.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4897.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. 48.
    He C, Zhou T. The two interannual variability modes of the western North Pacific subtropical high simulated by 28 CMIP5-AMIP models. Clim Dyn. 2014;43:2455–69.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2068-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
    Duan A, Sun R, He J. Impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau on the western Pacific subtropical high: a land-air-sea interaction perspective. Adv Atm Sci. 2017;34:157–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. 50.
    He C, Zhou T. Decadal change of the connection between summer western North Pacific subtropical high and tropical SST in the early 1990s. Atm Sci Lett. 2015a;16:253–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. 51.
    Paek H, Yu JY, Zheng F, Lu MM. Impacts of ENSO diversity on the western Pacific and North Pacific subtropical highs during boreal summer. Clim Dyn. 2016;  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3288-z.
  52. 52.
    Chen X, Zhou T. Relative contributions of external SST forcing and internal atmospheric variability to July-August heat wave over the Yangtze River valley during 1979-2014. Clim Dyn. 2017;  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3871-y.
  53. 53.
    He C, Zhou T, Lin A, Wu B, Gu D, Li C, et al. Enhanced or weakened western North Pacific subtropical high under global warming? Sci Rep. 2015b;5:16771.  https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16771.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. 54.
    Matsumura S, Horinouchi T. Pacific Ocean decadal forcing of long-term changes in the western Pacific subtropical high. Sci Rep. 2016;6:37765.  https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37765.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. 55.
    Lyu K, Yu JY, Paek H. The influences of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the mean strength of the North Pacific subtropical high during boreal winter. J Cli. 2017;30:411–24.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0525.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Hu Z, Yang S, Wu R. Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals. J Geophys Res. 2003;108:4614.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003651.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. 57.
    Yu R, Zhou T. Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of the interdecadal change in East Asian monsoon. J Clim. 2007;20:5344–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. 58.
    Zhou T, Yu R, Zhang J, Drange H, Cassou C, Deser C, et al. Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. J Clim. 2009b;22:2199–215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. 59.
    Katz RW, Parlange MB, Tebaldi C. Stochastic modeling of the effects of large-scale circulation on daily weather in the southeastern US. Clim Ch. 2003;60:189–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. 60.
    Nicholson SE. The West African Sahel: a review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteor doi. 2013;2013:1–32.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. 61.
    Davis RE, Hayden BP, Gay DA, Phillips WL, Jones GV. The North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. J Clim. 1997;10:728–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. 62.
    Hasanean HM. Variability of the North Atlantic subtropical high and associations with tropical sea surface temperature. Int J Climatol. 2004;24:945–57.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. 63.
    Diem JE. Influences of the Bermuda high and atmospheric moistening on changes in summer rainfall in the Atlanta, Georgia region, USA. Int J Climatol. 2013;33:160–72.  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. 64.
    Bowerman AR and co-authors (2017) An influence of extreme southern hemisphere cold surges on the North Atlantic subtropical high through a shallow atmospheric circulation. J Geophys Res Atm 122: 10,135 - 10,148.Google Scholar
  65. 65.
    Walker GT, Bliss EW. World weather. V Mem Roy Meteor Soc. 1932;4:53–83.Google Scholar
  66. 66.
    Scaife AA, et al. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophys Res Lett. 2014;41:2514–9.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. 67.
    Delworth TL, Zheng F, Vecchi GA, Yang X, Zhang L, Zhang R. The North Atlantic oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the northern hemisphere. Nat Geosci. 2016;9:509–12.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2738.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. 68.
    Machel H, Kapala A, Flohn EH. Behaviour of the centres of action above the Atlantic since 1881. Part I: characteristics of seasonal and interannual variability. Int J Climatol. 1998;18:1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. 69.
    Vizy EK, Cook KH, Sun X. Decadal change of the South Atlantic Ocean Angola-Benguela frontal zone since 1980. Clim Dyn. 2018;  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4077-7.
  70. 70.
    Morioka, Y., Taguchi, B., & Behera, S. K. (2017). Eastward-propagating decadal temperature variability in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.Google Scholar
  71. 71.
    Morioka Y, Engelbrecht F, Behera SK. Potential sources of decadal climate variability over southern Africa. J Clim. 2015b;28(22):8695–709.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. 72.
    Le Bars D, Viebahn JP, Dijkstra HA. A Southern Ocean mode of multidecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett. 2016;43(5):2102–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. 73.
    Xue F and co-authors (2015) Recent advances in monsoon studies in China. Adv Atm Sci 32: 206–229 doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-0015-8.
  74. 74.
    Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Reason CJ. Multidecadal variability in the climate system over the Indian Ocean region during the austral summer. J Clim. 1995;8(7):1853–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. 75.
    Reason CJC. Warm and cold events in the southeast Atlantic/southwest Indian Ocean region and potential impacts on circulation and rainfall over southern Africa. Met Atm Phys. 1998;69(1–2):49–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. 76.
    Yamagami Y, Tozuka T. Interdecadal changes of the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode. Clim Dyn. 2015;44(11–12):3057–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. 77.
    Tyson PD, Dyer TG, Mametse MN. Secular changes in south African rainfall: 1880 to 1972. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 1975;101(430):817–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. 78.
    Malherbe J, Landman WA, Engelbrecht FA. The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa. Clim Dyn. 2014;42(11–12):3121–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. 79.
    Reason CJC, Allan RJ, Lindesay JA. Evidence for the influence of remote forcing on interdecadal variability in the southern Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res Oceans. 1996;101(C5):11867–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. 80.
    Choi J, Son SW, Lu J, Min SK. Further observational evidence of Hadley cell widening in the southern hemisphere. Geophys Res Lett. 2014;41:2590–7.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. 81.
    Lucas C, Nguyen H. Regional characteristics of tropical expansion and the role of climate variability. J Geophys Res Atm. 2015;120:6809–24.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. 82.
    He C, Wu B, Zou L, Zhou T. Responses of the summertime subtropical anticyclones to global warming. J Clim. 2017;30:6465–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. 83.
    Kim Y-H, Min S-K, Son S-K, Choi J. Attribution of local Hadley cell widening in the southern hemisphere. Geophys Res Lett. 2017;44:1015–24.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. 84.
    Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34:L06805.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. 85.
    Tao L, Hu Y, Liu J. Anthropogenic forcing on the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations. Climate Dyn. 2016;46:3337–50.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2772-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. 86.
    Vizy EK, Cook KH. Understanding long-term (1982–2013) multi-decadal change in the equatorial and subtropical South Atlantic climate. Clim Dyn. 2016;46:2087–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. 87.
    Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc. 2012;93:485–98.  https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.I.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. 88.
    Min SK, Won SW. Multimodel attribution of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell widening: major role of ozone depletion. J Geophys Res Atm. 2013;118:3007–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. 89.
    Waugh DW, Garfinkel CI, Polvani LM. Drivers of the recent tropical expansion in the southern hemisphere: changing SSTs or ozone depletion? J Clim. 2015;28:6581–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. 90.
    Venegas SA, Mysak LA, Straub DN. Atmosphere–ocean coupled variability in the South Atlantic. J Clim. 1997;10(11):2904–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. 91.
    Fauchereau N, Trzaska S, Richard Y, Roucou P, Camberlin P. Sea-surface temperature co-variability in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its connections with the atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere. Int J Climatol. 2003;23(6):663–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. 92.
    Wang F. Subtropical dipole mode in the southern hemisphere: a global view. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37:L10702.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042750.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. 93.
    Morioka Y, Ratnam JV, Sasaki W, Masumoto Y. Generation mechanism of the South Pacific subtropical dipole. J Clim. 2013;26(16):6033–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. 94.
    Suzuki R, Behera SK, Iizuka S, Yamagata T. Indian Ocean subtropical dipole simulated using a coupled general circulation model. J Geophys Res: Oceans. 2004;109(C9)Google Scholar
  95. 95.
    Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Yamagata T. Climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean as revealed by self-organizing maps. Clim Dyn. 2010;35(6):1059–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. 96.
    Colberg F, Reason CJC, Rodgers K. South Atlantic response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation induced climate variability in an ocean general circulation model. J Geophys Res: Oceans. 2004;109(C12)Google Scholar
  97. 97.
    Morioka Y, Masson S, Terray P, Prodhomme C, Behera SK, Masumoto Y. Role of tropical SST variability on the formation of subtropical dipoles. J Clim. 2014;27(12):4486–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. 98.
    Rodrigues RR, Campos EJ, Haarsma R. The impact of ENSO on the South Atlantic subtropical dipole mode. J Clim. 2015;28(7):2691–705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. 99.
    Reason CJC. Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall. Geophys Res Lett. 2001;28(11):2225–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. 100.
    Morioka Y, Tozuka T, Yamagata T. On the growth and decay of the subtropical dipole mode in the South Atlantic. J Clim. 2011;24(21):5538–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. 101.
    Yuan C, Tozuka T, Luo JJ, Yamagata T. Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean atmosphere model. Climate Dyn. 2014;42:1291–308.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1704-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. 102.
    Meehl GA and co-authors (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88: 1383–1394 doi:  https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383.
  103. 103.
    Li W, Li L, Ting M, Liu Y. Intensification of northern hemisphere subtropical highs in a warming climate. Nat Geosci. 2012b;5:830–4.  https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. 104.
    Li W, Li L, Ting M, Deng Y, Kushnir Y, Liu Y, et al. Intensification of the southern hemisphere summertime subtropical anticyclones in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett. 2013;40:5959–64.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. 105.
    Liu Y, Li W, Zuo J, Hu ZZ. Simulation and projection of the western Pacific subtropical high in CMIP5 models. J Meteor Res. 2014;28:327–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. 106.
    Ren Y, Zhou B, Song L, Xiao Y. Interannual variability of western North Pacific subtropical high, East Asian jet and East Asian summer precipitation: CMIP5 simulation and projection. Quart Int. 2017;440:64–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. 107.
    He C, Zhou T, Wu B. The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms. J Meteor Res. 2015a;29(4):562–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  108. 108.
    He C, Lin A, Gu D, Li C, Zheng B, Wu B, et al. Using eddy geopotential height to measure the western North Pacific subtropical high in a warming climate. Theor Appl Climatol. 2018;131:681–91.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2001-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  109. 109.
    He C, Zhou T. Responses of the western North Pacific subtropical high to global warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios projected by 33 CMIP5 models: the dominance of tropical Indian Ocean - Tropical Western Pacific SST Gradient. J Clim. 2015b;28:365–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  110. 110.
    Folland CK, Sexton DMH, Karoly DJ, Johnson CE, Rowell DP, Parker DE. Influence of anthropogenic and oceanic forcing on recent climate change. Geophys Res Lett. 1998;25:353–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. 111.
    Shaw TA, Voigt A. Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Nat Geosci. 2015;8:560–6.  https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2449.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. 112.
    Li X, Ting M, Li C, Henderson N. Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models. J Clim. 2015;28:4107–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. 113.
    Shaw TA, Voigt A. Land dominates the regional response to CO2 direct radiative forcing. Geophys Res Lett. 2016;43:11,383–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. 114.
    Kelly P, Kravitz B, Lu J, Leung LR. Remote drying in the North Atlantic as a common response to precessional changes and CO2 increase over land. Geophys Res Lett. 2018;45:3615–24.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076669.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  115. 115.
    Alessandri A and co-authors (2014) Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century. Sci Rep 4: 7211 doi:  https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07211.
  116. 116.
    Polade SD and co-authors (2017) Precipitation in a warming world: assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Sci Rep 7: 10783 doi:  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y.
  117. 117.
    Choi J, et al. Uncertainty in future projections of the North Pacific subtropical high and its implication for California winter precipitation change. J Geophys Res Atm. 2016;121:795–806.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023858.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. 118.
    Eldridge DJ, Beecham G (2018) The impact of climate variability on land use and livelihoods in Australia’s rangelands. In: Gaur MK, Squires VR (eds) “Climate variability impacts on land use and livelihoods in drylands” Springer.Google Scholar
  119. 119.
    Wandres M, Pattiaratchi C, Wijeratne EMS, Hetzel Y. The influence of the subtropical high-pressure ridge on the western Australian wave climate. J Coast Res. 2016;75:567–71.  https://doi.org/10.2112/SI75-114.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. 120.
    Cassola GE, et al. Decline in abundance and health state of an Atlantic subtropical gorgonian population. Mar Poll Bull. 2016;104:329–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. 121.
    Xie JY and co-authors (2017) The 2014 summer coral bleaching event in subtropical Hong Kong. Mar Poll Bull doi:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbull.2017.03.061, 124, 653, 659.
  122. 122.
    Tan Z, Lau KKL, Ng E. Planning strategies for roadside tree planting and outdoor comfort enhancement in subtropical high-density urban areas. Build Environ. 2017;120:93–109.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2017.05.017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. 123.
    Son JY, et al. The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat and heatwaves in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Int J Biometeorol. 2016;60:113–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. 124.
    Freitas ACV, Frederiksen JS, O’Kane TJ, Ambrizzi T. Simulated austral winter response of the Hadley circulation and stationary Rossby wave propagation to a warming climate. Clim Dyn. 2017;49:521–45.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3356-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. 125.
    Freitas ACV, Ambrizzi T. Changes in the austral winter Hadley circulation and the impact on stationary Rossby waves propagation. Adv Meteorol. 2012;2012:1–15.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/980816.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. 126.
    Nguyen H, Evans A, Lucas C, Smith I, Timbal B. The Hadley circulation in re-analyses: climatology, variability, and change. J Clim. 2013;26:3357–76.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00224.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  127. 127.
    Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim. 2010;23:4651–68.  https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  128. 128.
    Lim EP, et al. The impact of the southern annular mode on future changes in southern hemisphere rainfall. Geophys Res Lett. 2016;43:7160–7.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069453.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. 129.
    Song F, Zhou T. Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: skill dependence on Indian Ocean-western Pacific anticyclone teleconnections. J Clim. 2014a;27:1679–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  130. 130.
    Richter I, Xie S-P, Wittenberg AT, Masumoto Y. Tropical Atlantic biases and their relation to surface wind stress and terrestrial precipitation. Clim Dyn. 2012;38:985–1001.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1038-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  131. 131.
    Cabos W, Sein DV, Pinto JG, et al. The South Atlantic anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models. Clim Dyn. 2017;48:4051–69.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3319-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  132. 132.
    Hendon HH, Lim EP, Arblaster J, Anderson DTL. Causes and predictability of the record wet spring over Australia in 2010. Clim Dyn. 2014;42:1155–74.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1700-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  133. 133.
    Nguyen H, et al. Expansion of the southern hemisphere Hadley cell in response to greenhouse forcing. J Clim. 2015;28:8067–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  134. 134.
    Teissereng de Bort L (1883) Etude sur l’hiver de 1879–80 et recherches sur la position des centres d’action de l’atmosphere dans les hivers anormaux. Bureau Central Meteor. de la France, Annales, 1881, 4, 17–62.Google Scholar
  135. 135.
    Stewart HJ. Periodic properties of semi-permanent atmospheric pressure systems. Q Appl Math. 1943;1:276–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  136. 136.
    Rubin MJ, van Loon H. Aspects of the circulation of the southern hemisphere. J Meteor. 1954;11:68–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  137. 137.
    Chen PC, Hoerling MP, Dole RM. The origin of the subtropical anticyclones. J Atmos Sci. 2001;58:1827–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  138. 138.
    Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, et al. The ERA-interim re-analysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc. 2011;137:553–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  139. 139.
    Chen X, Zhou T. Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42:9433–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti ClimaticiIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaBolognaItaly
  2. 2.University of São PauloSão PauloBrazil
  3. 3.Application LaboratoryJapan Agency for Marine Earth Science and TechnologyYokohamaJapan
  4. 4.Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI)ItabiraBrazil
  5. 5.Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations