Smoking Cessation: A Comparison of Two Model Structures
- 215 Downloads
Most economic evaluations of smoking cessation interventions have used cohort state-transition models. Discrete event simulations (DESs) have been proposed as a superior approach.
We developed a state-transition model and a DES using the discretely integrated condition event (DICE) framework and compared the cost-effectiveness results. We performed scenario analysis using the DES to explore the impact of alternative assumptions.
The models estimated the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the intervention and comparator from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. The models considered five comorbidities: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke and lung cancer. The state-transition model used prevalence data, and the DES used incidence. The costs and utility inputs were the same between two models and consistent with those used in previous analyses for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.
In the state-transition model, the intervention produced an additional 0.16 QALYs at a cost of £540, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3438. The comparable DES scenario produced an ICER of £5577. The ICER for the DES increased to £18,354 when long-term relapse was included.
The model structures themselves did not influence smoking cessation cost-effectiveness results, but long-term assumptions did. When there is variation in long-term predictions between interventions, economic models need a structure that can reflect this.
Data Availability Statement
Both economic models are available to reviewers, subject to signing relevant forms. To request access to the Markov model, please contact NICE (SmokingCessationServices@nice.org.uk) with details of your request and attach the completed confidentiality form (https://www.nice.org.uk/get-involved/stakeholder-registration/confidentiality-agreement). To request access to the DES, please email the corresponding author.
AF identified inputs for and built the Markov model, with support from MT. LO advised on the design of and inputs to the Markov model, and quality assured the final version of the model. BP identified additional inputs for and built the DES. BP wrote the first draft of this manuscript, and all co-authors reviewed and suggested changes. All authors reviewed and approved the final draft.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
When this work was undertaken, Becky Pennington and Lesley Owen were employed by the NICE. Alex Filby and Matthew Taylor were employed by York Health Economics Consortium, who received payment from the NICE to build the state-transition model. The DICE simulation framework shell was made available by Evidera. Authors received no funding from Evidera.
Conflict of interest
Becky Pennington reports no conflicts of interest. Lesley Owen reports no conflicts of interest. Alex Filby reports no conflicts of interest. Matthew Taylor reports no conflicts of interest
- 5.Davis S, Stevenson M, Tappenden P, Wailoo A. Cost-effectiveness modelling using patient-level simulation. NICE DSU Tech Support Doc. 2014;15(April):1–62.Google Scholar
- 8.Scarborough PV, Bhatnagar P, Kaur A, Leal J, Luengo-Fernandez R, Gray A, Rayner M, Allender S. Stroke statistics. 2009. https://www.bhf.org.uk/publications/statistics/stroke-statistics-2009. Accessed Sep 2017.
- 9.NHS Digital. Health Survey for England, 2014: trend tables. 2015. http://content.digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB19297. Accessed 13 Sep 2017.
- 10.Getsios D, Marton J, Revankar N, Ward A, Willke R, Rublee D, et al. Smoking cessation treatment and outcomes patterns simulation: a new framework for evaluating the potential health and economic impact of smoking cessation interventions. Pharmacoeconomics. 2013;31(9):767–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-013-0070-5.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- 13.Jit M, Barton P, Chen YF, Uthman O, Aveyard P, Meads C. School‐based interventions to prevent the uptake of smoking among children and young people: cost-effectiveness review. 2009. http://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph23/resources/schoolbased-interventions-to-prevent-smoking-economic-modelling-report-full-report2. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 14.van Hout BA, Hummel S, Freeman C, Messina J, Rees A, Goyder E. Costs and effects of strategies to support quitting the use of smokeless tobacco. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph39/evidence. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 15.Flack STM, Trueman P. Cost-effectiveness of interventions for smoking cessation. 2007. http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/WorkplaceInterventionsPromoteSmokingCessationEconomicReport1.pdf%5Cnhttp://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/live/11381/41107/41107.pdf. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 16.Taylor M, Lewis L. An economic evaluation of different interventions to promote harm reduction. 2012. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph45/evidence. Accessed 26 Jan 2018.
- 17.Mallender J, Bertranou E, Bacelar M, Roberts S. Economic analysis of smoking cessation in secondary care. In: 2013. 2013. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph48/evidence/economic-analysis-of-smoking-cessation-in-secondary-care-430362685. Accessed Sep 2017.
- 18.Parrott S, Godfrey C, Kind P. Cost-effectiveness of brief intervention and referral for smoking cessation. 2006. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph1/evidence. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 19.Raikou M, McGuire A. Cost-effectiveness of a mass media campaign and a point of sale intervention to prevent the uptake of smoking in children and young people: economic modelling report. 2008. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph14/evidence. Accessed Feb 2018.
- 20.National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Developing NICE guidelines: the manual. In: Process and methods guides. 2014. http://www.nice.org.uk/article/pmg20. Accessed Oct 2017.
- 22.York Health Economics Consortium. Smoking cessation interventions and services. 2017. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-phg94/documents/economic-report. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 26.Office for National Statistics. Adult smoking habits in the UK. 2016. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/adultsmokinghabitsingreatbritain/2016. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 29.Leaviss J, Sullivan W, Ren S, Everson-Hock E, Stevenson M, Stevens J, et al. What is the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cytisine compared with varenicline for smoking cessation? A systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess. 2014;18(33):1–119. https://doi.org/10.3310/hta18330.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
- 30.Office for National Statistics. Weekly provisional figures on deaths registered in England and Wales. 2016. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 31.National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Varenicline for smoking cessation. 2007. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta123/chapter/4-Consideration-of-the-evidence. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.
- 32.National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Stop smoking services. 2013. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph10/chapter/3-Considerations. Accessed 13 Mar 2018.
- 35.Stevenson M, Archer R, Tosh J, Simpson E, Everson-Hock E, Stevens J, et al. Adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, tocilizumab and abatacept for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis not previously treated with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and after the failure of conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs only: systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess. 2016. https://doi.org/10.3310/hta20350.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
- 38.West R, Fidler J. Smoking and smoking cessation in England 2010. 2011. http://www.smokinginengland.info/sts-documents/. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 41.National Clinical Guideline Centre. Venous thromboembolism: reducing the risk of venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) in patients admitted to hospital. London. 2010. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/cg92/evidence/full-guideline-243920125. Accessed Sep 2017.
- 45.UK. CR. Lung cancer UK price tag eclipses the cost of any other cancer. 2012. http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-us/cancer-news/press-release/2012-11-07-lung-cancer-uk-price-tag-eclipses-the-cost-of-any-other-cancer. Accessed 13 Sep 2017.
- 46.Pesch B, Kendzia B, Gustavsson P, Jöckel K-H, Johnen G, Pohlabeln H. Cigarette smoking and lung cancer–relative risk estimates for the major histological types from a pooled analysis of case-control studies. Int J Cancer. 2012;131(5):1210–9. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.27339.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- 48.Office for National Statistics. Cancer registration statistics, England. 2014. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/cancerregistrationstatisticscancerregistrationstatisticsengland. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 49.Godfrey C, Ali S, Parrott S, Pickett K. Economic model of adult smoking related costs and consequences for England. 2011. http://phrc.lshtm.ac.uk/papers/PHRC_A4-06_Final_Report.pdf. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 51.Townsend N, Wickramasinghe K, Bhatnagar P, Smolina K, Nichols M, Leal J et al. Coronary heart disease statistics. 2012. https://www.bhf.org.uk/publications/statistics/coronary-heart-disease-statistics-2012. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 52.Townsend N, Bhatnagar P, Wilkin E, Wickramasinghe K, Rayner M. Cardiovascular disease statistics 2015. 2015. https://www.bhf.org.uk/publications/statistics/cvd-stats-2015. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 55.National Clinical Guideline Centre. Chronic obstructive disease: management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease n adults in primary and secondary care. 2010. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/cg101/evidence/full-guideline-pdf-134519581. Accessed Sep 2017.
- 56.Rutten-van Mölken M, Oostenbrink J, Tashkin D, Burkhart D, Monz B. Does quality of life of COPD patients as measured by the generic EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire differentiate between COPD severity stages? Chest. 2006;130(4):1117–28. https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.130.4.1117.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- 58.Association of Public Health Observatories. COPD Prevalence Estimates Dec 2011. 2011. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20170106083320/http://www.apho.org.uk/resource/item.aspx?RID=111122. Accessed Jan 2018.
- 59.British Lung Foundation. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease statistics. 2016. https://statistics.blf.org.uk/copd. Accessed 13 Sep 2017.
- 60.Curtis L BA. Unit costs of health and social care 2015. 2015. http://www.pssru.ac.uk/project-pages/unit-costs/2015/index.php. Accessed Jan 2018.