Influence of Temperature and Precipitation Anomaly on the Seasonal Emergence of Invasive Bark Beetles in Subtropical South America
Several invasive bark beetle species have caused major economic and ecological losses in South America. Accurate predictions of beetle emergence times will make control efforts more efficient and effective. To determine whether bark beetle emergence can be predicted by season, temperature, or precipitation, we analyzed trapping records for three introduced pest species of bark beetles in Uruguay. We used trigonometric functions as seasonal predictors in generalized linear models to account for purely seasonal effects, while testing for effects of temperature and precipitation. Results show that all three beetle species had strong but unique seasonal emergence patterns and responded differently to temperature and precipitation. Cyrtogenius luteus (Blandford) emerged in summer and increased with precipitation but was not affected by temperature. Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) emerged in winter and increased with temperature but was not affected by precipitation. Orthotomicus erosus (Wollaston) had a primary emergence in spring, and a smaller emergence in early summer, but showed no significant relationship with temperature or precipitation. This study shows that the emergence of these bark beetle species in Uruguay is influenced by seasonality more than by temperature and precipitation fluctuations. It also shows how seasonality can be easily incorporated into models to make more accurate predictions about pest population dynamics.
KeywordsScolytinae phenology forest pests flight activity Uruguay forestry
We thank Cambium Forestal Uruguay and Weyerhaeuser Productos S.A. for helping with logistics and trapping.
Conceptualization: Demian F. Gomez and Maite De María; data collection: Demian F. Gomez; data analysis: James Skelton and Demian F. Gomez. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Demian F. Gomez and James Skelton, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Review and editing: Jiri Hulcr, Maite De María, James Skelton, Demian F. Gomez. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
This project was funded by a cooperative agreement with the USDA Forest Service Forest Health Protection, the project INIA FO15, and the National Science Foundation DEB Award 1556283. DG and JH were partially funded by the USDA Forest Service, JS was funded by the National Science Foundation.
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