Are 40 years better than 55? An analysis of the reduction of forest rotation to cope with drought events in a Douglas fir stand
Reduction of forest rotation is analyzed as a potential adaptation strategy for a Douglas fir stand to cope with drought-induced risk of forest decline. The methodology combines a water balance modeling and an economic approach. Results show that, from an economic perspective, adaptation (immediate or delayed) is always better than the absence of adaptation.
Reduction of rotation length emerges as a potential adaptation strategy to cope with climate change.
The study aims to address the reduction of rotation length to deal with the drought-induced risk of forest decline taking a multidisciplinary approach.
We estimate probabilities and impacts of drought events quantified by water balance modeling and we evaluate, from an economic point of view, the reduction of rotation length to cope with the drought-induced risk of forest decline. We compare three different adaptation strategies at the economic level: absence of adaptation, immediate adaptation, and delayed adaptation.
Results suggest that immediate reduction of rotation length is associated with the best economic return, followed by delayed adaptation and, finally, by the absence of adaptation. This result is sensitive to the level of timber loss in the event of drought occurrence. If the loss of timber volume is higher than 48%, then delayed adaptation may be preferable to immediate adaptation.
Beyond the specificities of the case study, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach to address adaptation strategies.
KeywordsAdaptation Economics Climate change Water balance Risk of decline Pseudotsuga menziesii
We thank Abdoulaye Sacko for the work performed during the training course of Master’s degree at the Laboratory of Forest Economics. We also thank Jean-Luc Peyron for his helpful comments.
The project was funded by the Mixed Technological Network for the Adaptation of Forest to Climatic Change (RMT AFORCE; http://www.reseau-aforce.fr/). The UMRs BETA and Forest Ecology and Ecophysiology are supported by a grant overseen by the French National Research Agency (ANR) as part of the “Investissements d’Avenir” program (ANR-11-LABX-0002-01; Lab of Excellence ARBRE).
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
- Alvarez LHR, Koskela E (2005) Wicksellian theory of forest rotation under interest rate variability. J Econ Dyn Control 29(3):529–545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2004.03.002
- Aussenac G, Granier A, Ibrahim M (1984) Influence du dessèchement du sol sur le fonctionnement hydrique et la croissance du Douglas (Pseudotsuga Menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). Acta Oecol 5:241–253Google Scholar
- Bréda N, Bosc A, Badeau V (2011) Some aspects of climate change and forests in metropolitan France. In: Brisson N, Levrault F (eds) The Green book of the CLIMATOR project. Climate change, agriculture and forests in France: simulations of the impacts on the main species. ADEME, pp 225–236Google Scholar
- Brisson N, Levrault F (2011) Green book of the CLIMATOR project. Climate change, agriculture and forests in France: simulations of the impacts on the main species. ADEME Editions, March 2011, 334pGoogle Scholar
- Englin J, Boxall P, Hauer G (2000) An empirical examination of optimal rotations in a multiple-use forest in the presence of fire risk. J Agric Resour Econ 25:14–27Google Scholar
- Forston JC (1986) Factors affecting the discount rate for forestry investments. For Prod J 36(6):67–72Google Scholar
- Gottschalk KW (1995) Using silviculture to improve health in northeastern conifer and eastern hardwood forests. In: Eskew LG (compiler) Forest health through silviculture. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Fort Collins, Colo. General Technical Report RM-267: 219–226Google Scholar
- IPCC (2012) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 1–19Google Scholar
- IPCC (2014) IPCC SREX summary for policymakersGoogle Scholar
- Klemperer WD (1996) Forest resource economics and finance, McGraw-Hill Series in Forest Resources. McGraw-Hill, NewYork, 551pGoogle Scholar
- Kolström M, Lindner M, Vilén T, Maroschek M, Seidl R, Lexer MJ, Netherer S, Kremer A, Delzon S, Barbati A, Marchetti M, Corona P (2011) Reviewing the science and implementation of climate change adaptation measures in European forestry. Forests 2:961–982. https://doi.org/10.3390/f2040961 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lévesque M, Saurer M, Siegwolf R, Eilmann B, Brang P, Bugmann H, Rigling A (2013) Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch. Glob Chang Biol 19:3184–3199. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12268 CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Najac J, Vidal JP, Martin E, Franchisteguy L, Soubeyroux JM (2010) Changes in drought characteristics in France during the 21st century. Geophys Res Abst 12:EGU2010–8975. HAL Id: hal-00506550Google Scholar
- Pachauri RK, Allen MR, Barros VR, Broome J, Cramer W, Christ R, Church JA, Clarke L, Dahe Q, Dasgupta P (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCCGoogle Scholar
- Snowdon P, Harou P (2014) Guide to economic appraisal of forestry investments and programmes in Europe. EFI Technical Report 94, Forestry CommissionGoogle Scholar
- Spittlehouse DL, Stewart RB (2003) Adaptation to climate change in forest management. J Ecosyst Manag 4:1–11Google Scholar
- Stollery KR (2005) Climate change and optimal rotation in a flammable forest. Nat Resour Model 18(1):91–112. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-7445.2005.tb00150.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Yousefpour R, Hanewinkel M, Le Moguédec G (2010) Evaluating the suitability of management strategies of pure Norway spruce forests in the black forest area of southwest Germany for adaptation to or mitigation of climate change. Environ Manag 45:387–402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9409-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar