Pertinence of reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management under climate change

  • Rasoul Yousefpour
  • Andrey L. D. Augustynczik
  • Marc Hanewinkel
Original Paper
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Risk Analysis

Abstract

Key message

Pertinence of alternative adaptation strategies to business as usual, namely reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies, can be evaluated by incorporating the expected costs and benefits of adaptation, climate change uncertainty, and the risk attitudes of decision-makers.

Context

Forest management is used to coping with risky and uncertain projections and estimates. However, climate change adds a major challenge and necessitates adaptation in many ways.

Aims

This paper highlights the dependency of the decisions on adaptation strategies to four aspects of forest management: (i) the costs of mitigating undesirable climate change impacts on forests, (ii) the value of ecosystem goods and services to be sustained, (iii) uncertainties about future climate trajectories, and (iv) the attitude of decision-makers towards risk (risk aversion level).

Methods

We develop a framework to evaluate the pertinence of reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management in response to climate change.

Results

Business as usual may still be retained if the value of the forest and cost of climate impacts are low. Otherwise, it is crucial to react and facilitate the resilience of affected forest resources or actively adapt in advance and improve forest resistance. Adaptation should be robust under any future climate conditions, if the value of the ecosystem, the impacts from climatic changes, and the uncertainty about climate scenarios are very high.

Conclusion

The decision framework for adaptation should take into account multiple aspects of forest management under climate change towards an active and robust strategy.

Keywords

Adaptive management Climate target Forest growth Climate risks Forest economics 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the constructive comments made by associate editor Dr. Barry Gardiner and three anonymous reviewers and improved the manuscript. Moreover, we acknowledge that this study benefited from participation of authors in SuFuRun project (http://suforun.ctfc.cat/) funded by European commission with grant agreement Number 691149.

Supplementary material

13595_2017_640_MOESM1_ESM.docx (21 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 20 kb)

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Copyright information

© INRA and Springer-Verlag France 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rasoul Yousefpour
    • 1
  • Andrey L. D. Augustynczik
    • 1
  • Marc Hanewinkel
    • 1
  1. 1.Chair of Forestry Economics and Forest PlanningUniversity of FreiburgFreiburgGermany

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