Annals of Forest Science

, Volume 71, Issue 2, pp 201–210 | Cite as

The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

  • Ervin Rasztovits
  • Imre Berki
  • Csaba Mátyás
  • Kornél Czimber
  • Elisabeth Pötzelsberger
  • Norbert Móricz
Original Paper



Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably contribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits.


The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs).


Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century.


These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future.


Beech Trailing edge Climate change Xeric limit Predictive modelling 



We would like to acknowledge Dr Tibor Szép who helped in providing the occurrence and sanitary logging data. We also thank Prof. Dr Hubert Hasenauer for his personal communication regarding the methods of modelling.


This research was funded by the Austrian–Hungarian Transboundary Cooperation 2007–2013 (‘FaKlim’ project—L00044), by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012–0013 and by the FORGER (‘Towards the Sustainable Management of Forest Genetic Resources in Europe’—289119) project.

Supplementary material

13595_2013_346_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (29 kb)
Online Resource 1 (PDF 28 kb)
13595_2013_346_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (503 kb)
Online Resource 2 (PDF 503 kb)


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Copyright information

© INRA and Springer-Verlag France 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ervin Rasztovits
    • 1
  • Imre Berki
    • 1
  • Csaba Mátyás
    • 1
  • Kornél Czimber
    • 2
  • Elisabeth Pötzelsberger
    • 3
  • Norbert Móricz
    • 4
  1. 1.Institute of Environmental and Earth SciencesUniversity of West HungarySopronHungary
  2. 2.Institute of Geomatics and Civil EngineeringUniversity of West HungarySopronHungary
  3. 3.Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil SciencesUniversity of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences ViennaViennaAustria
  4. 4.Energy DepartmentAustrian Institute of TechnologyViennaAustria

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