Annals of Forest Science

, Volume 71, Issue 3, pp 313–324 | Cite as

Using scenarios for forest adaptation to climate change: a foresight study of the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050

  • Olivier MoraEmail author
  • Vincent Banos
  • Margot Regolini
  • Jean-Michel Carnus
Letter to the Editor


To ensure that forest ecosystem services will be maintained in future climate conditions, the challenge of developing and implementing forest adaptation strategies has become a priority shared across Europe (European Commission 2010) and around the world (FAO 2012). A critical aspect of any adaptation (and mitigation) strategy is to ensure that management choices have sufficient flexibility and are consistent with sustainable forest management (SFM) principles that balance the forest’s social, ecological and economic outputs. Most current studies, however, still tend to consider forest adaptation independently of exogenous developments (Seppälä et al. 2009), or are based on forecasting and thus only extrapolate from current trends. Yet the futures of forest systems are also uncertain because change may come mainly from socio-economic, and not ecological, drivers (Schoene and Bernier 2012). Climate change will, moreover, have a highly uncertain effect on socio-ecological...


Adaptation Scenarios Climate change Forest planning Wood sector Regional scale Biodiversity Landes de Gascogne 



The authors acknowledge the support of the Aquitaine Regional Council and the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) for steering and funding this research and wish to thank all members of the expert panel, Thomas Alban, Alain Bailly, Christophe Bergouignan, Guillaume Chantre, Agnès Charousset, Georges Cingal, Stéphane Couture, Jeoffrey Dehez, Philippe Deuffic, Antoine Kremer, Yves Lesgourgues, Hervé Le Treut, Bernard Itier, Jean-Luc Peyron, Pierre Pouget, Olivier Roger, Henri Tardieu, Laurent Trijoulet, and its Chairman, Michel Casteigts, for their contribution to the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050 foresight study. An initial version of this paper was presented at the “Tackling Climate Change: The Contribution of Forest Scientific Knowledge” international conference held in May 2012 in Tours, France.


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Copyright information

© INRA and Springer-Verlag France 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Olivier Mora
    • 1
    Email author
  • Vincent Banos
    • 2
  • Margot Regolini
    • 3
  • Jean-Michel Carnus
    • 4
  1. 1.INRADelegation for scientific expertise, foresight and advanced studies (DEPE)Paris Cedex 07France
  2. 2.National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (IRSTEA)Amenities and Dynamics of Rural Areas research unit (UR ADBX)Cestas CedexFrance
  3. 3.European Forest Institute—INRAJoint Research Unit for Biodiversity, Genes and Communities (UMR BIOGECO)Cestas CedexFrance
  4. 4.INRAForest, Grassland and Freshwater Ecology Department (EFPA), Bordeaux-Aquitaine Research CentreCestasFrance

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