Advertisement

Demography

pp 1–20 | Cite as

Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data

  • Henry Hyatt
  • Erika McEntarfer
  • Ken Ueda
  • Alexandria Zhang
Article
  • 40 Downloads

Abstract

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.

Keywords

Migration Labor reallocation Job-to-job flows Employment Matched employer-employee data 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We thank Rob Valletta, James Spletzer, and participants in the 2016 Allied Social Science Association conference and the U.S. Census Bureau research lunch for helpful comments and suggestions. This research was principally conducted while Ken Ueda and Alexandria Zhang were employees of the U.S. Census Bureau. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential data are disclosed.

Supplementary material

13524_2018_720_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (144 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 144 kb)

References

  1. Abowd, J. M., Stephens, B. E., Vilhuber, L., Andersson, F., McKinney, K. L., Roemer, M., & Woodcock, S. (2009). The LEHD infrastructure files and the creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators. In T. Dunne, J. B. Jensen, & M. J. Roberts (Eds.), Producer dynamics: New evidence from micro data (Vol. 68, Studies in Income and Wealth, pp. 149–230). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  2. Blanchard, O. J., & Katz, L. F. (1992). Regional evolutions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992(1), 1–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Cooke, T. (2011). It’s not just the economy: Declining migration and the rise of secular rootedness. Population, Space and Place 17, 193–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Cooke, T. (2013). Internal migration in decline. Professional Geographer, 65, 664–679.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Dahl, G. (2002). Mobility and the return to education: Testing a Roy model with multiple markets. Econometrica, 70, 2367–2420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Davis, S. J., & Haltiwanger, J. (2014). Labor market fluidity and economic performance (NBER Working Paper No. 20479). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
  7. Decker, R., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R. S., & Miranda, J. (2014). The secular decline in business dynamism in the U.S. Unpublished manuscript, University of Maryland, College Park, MD. Retrieved from http://econweb.umd.edu/~haltiwan/DHJM_6_2_2014.pdf
  8. De Loecker, J., & Eeckhout, J. (2017). The rise of market power and the macroeconomic implications (NBER Working Paper No. 23687). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
  9. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisers. (2015). Achievements and challenges in the U.S. labor market. In Economic Report of the President (pp. 103–155). Retrieved from https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/ERP-2015/ERP-2015-chapter3/content-detail.html
  10. Fallick, B., & Fleischman, C. A. (2004). Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: The complete picture of gross worker flows (FEDS Working Paper No. 2004-34). Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board.Google Scholar
  11. Farber, H. (1999). Mobility and stability: The dynamics of job change in labor markets. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3, 2439–2483.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Frey, W. H. (2009). The great American migration slowdown: Regional and metropolitan dimensions (Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program report). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
  13. Hahn, J., Hyatt, H., Janicki, H., & Tibbets, S. (2017). Job-to-job flows and earnings growth. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107, 358–363.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Haltiwanger, J., Hyatt, H., Kahn, L., & McEntarfer, E. (2018). Cyclical job ladders by firm size and firm wage. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(2), 52–85.Google Scholar
  15. Haltiwanger, J., Hyatt, H., & McEntarfer, E. (2017). Do workers move up the firm productivity ladder? Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.Google Scholar
  16. Hsieh, C.-T., & Moretti, E. (2015). Housing constraints and spatial misallocation (NBER Working Paper No. 21154). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
  17. Hyatt, H. (2015). The decline in job-to-job flows (IZA World of Labor Report, No.175). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved from  https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.175
  18. Hyatt, H., & McEntarfer, E. (2012). Job-to-job flows and the business cycle (CES Working Paper No. CES 12-04). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies.Google Scholar
  19. Hyatt, H., McEntarfer, E., Tibbets, S., & Walton, D. (2014). Job-to-job (J2J) flows: New labor market statistics from linked employer-employee data. In JSM Proceedings 2014 (pp. 231–245). Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Statistics Section.Google Scholar
  20. Hyatt, H., & Spletzer, J. (2013). The recent decline in employment dynamics. IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 2(article 5).  https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-8997-2-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hyatt, H., & Spletzer, J. (2016). The shifting job tenure distribution. Labour Economics, 41, 363–377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Internal Revenue Service. (2012). 2011–2012 migration data users guide. Retrieved from https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1112inpublicmigdoc.pdf
  23. Kambourov, G., & Manovskii, I. (2008). Rising occupational and industry mobility in the United States: 1968–97. International Economic Review, 49, 41–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kaplan, G., & Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2012). Interstate migration has fallen less than you think: Consequences of hot deck imputation in the Current Population Survey. Demography, 49, 1061–1074.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kaplan, G., & Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2017). Understanding the long-run decline in interstate migration. International Economic Review, 58, 57–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Karahan, F., & Rhee, S. (2017). Population aging, migration spillovers and the decline in interstate migration (FRBNY Staff Report No. 699). New York, NY: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Google Scholar
  27. Koerber, K. (2007). Comparison of ACS and ASEC data on geographic mobility: 2004 (Census working paper). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division.Google Scholar
  28. Leggieri, C., Pistiner, A., Farber, J., & U.S. Census Bureau. (2002). Methods for conducting an administrative records experiment in Census 2000. In JSM Proceedings, Survey Research Methods Section (pp. 2709–2713). Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association. Retrieved from http://ww2.amstat.org/sections/srms/proceedings/y2002/Files/JSM2002-000858.pdf
  29. Lent, J., Miller, S., & Cantwell, P. (1994). Composite weights for the Current Population Survey. In Proceedings of the survey research methods section (pp. 867–872). Washington, DC: American Statistical Association.Google Scholar
  30. McKinney, K. L., & Vilhuber, L. (2014). LEHD infrastructure files in the Census RDC: Overview (Report No. CES 14–26). Washington, DC: Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
  31. Molloy, R., Smith, C., Trezzi, R., & Wozniak, A. (2016). Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-015). Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Molloy, R., Smith, C., & Wozniak, A. (2011). Internal migration in the United States. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3), 173–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Molloy, R., Smith, C., & Wozniak, A. (2017). Labor market transitions and the decline in long-distance migration in the United States Demography, 54, 631–653.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Moscarini, G., & Thomsson, K. (2007). Occupational and job mobility in the US. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109, 807–836.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Nenov, P. (2015). Regional reallocation and housing markets in a model of frictional migration. Review of Economic Dynamics, 18, 863–880.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Ruggles, S., Sobek, M., Alexander, T., Fitch, C. A., Goeken, R., Hall, P. K., ... Ronnander, C. (2010). Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 3.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: Minnesota Population Center.Google Scholar
  37. Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2012). Negative equity does not reduce homeowners’ mobility. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 35(1), 2–14.Google Scholar
  38. Stewart, J. (2007). Using March CPS data to analyze labor market transitions. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 32, 177–197.Google Scholar
  39. U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Weighting and estimation. In ACS Design and Methodology (Chapter 11). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2010/acs/Chapter_11_RevisedDec2010.pdf
  40. U.S. Census Bureau. (2014). Survey rules, concepts, and definitions. In American Community Survey design and methodology: January 2014 (Chapter 6). Retrieved from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology/design_and_methodology/acs_design_methodology_ch06_2014.pdf
  41. U.S. Census Bureau. (2017). Methodology for the United States population estimates: Vintage 2017. Retrieved from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2010-2017/2017-natstcopr-meth.pdf
  42. Valleta, R. G. (2013). House lock and structural unemployment. Labour Economics, 25, 86–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wozniak, A. (2010). Are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities? Journal of Human Resources, 45, 944–970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Yellen, J. (2014). Labor market dynamics and monetary policy. Speech presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, WY. Retrieved from https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140822a.htm

Copyright information

© This is a U.S. government work and its text is not subject to copyright protection in the United States; however, its text may be subject to foreign copyright protection 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Henry Hyatt
    • 1
  • Erika McEntarfer
    • 1
  • Ken Ueda
    • 2
  • Alexandria Zhang
    • 3
  1. 1.Center for Economic StudiesU.S. Census BureauWashingtonUSA
  2. 2.Office of the Comptroller of the CurrencyWashingtonUSA
  3. 3.The Pew Charitable TrustsWashingtonUSA

Personalised recommendations