Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections
- 649 Downloads
In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call “rotation.” We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0 and 15–19) while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations, including those that currently have very high life expectancies. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the United States.
KeywordsMortality age pattern Long-term projection Extended Lee-Carter method Mortality forecasting Extrapolation
Acknowledgement and disclaimer
The authors thank Shripad Tuljapurkar and Carl Boe for their useful comments. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations.
- Fisher, R. A. (1930). The genetical theory of natural selection. Oxford, UK: The Clarendon press.Google Scholar
- Galley, C., & Woods, R. (1999). On the distribution of deaths during the first year of life. Population: An English Selection, 11, 35–59.Google Scholar
- Girosi, F., & King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
- Horiuchi, S., & Wilmoth, J. R. (1995, April). The aging of mortality decline. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, CA.Google Scholar
- Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659–671.Google Scholar
- Li, N., & Gerland, P. (2011, April). Modifying the Lee-Carter method to project mortality changes up to 2100. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
- Liu, L., Johnson, H. L., Cousens, S., Perin, J., Scott, S., Lawn, J. E., . . . Black, R. E. (2012). Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: An updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000. Lancet, 379, 2151–2161.Google Scholar
- Patton, G. C., Coffey, C., Sawyer, S. M., Viner, R. M., Haller, D. M., Bose, K., . . . Mathers, C. D. (2009). Global patterns of mortality in young people: a systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet, 374, 881–892. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60741-8
- United Nations. (2010). World population prospects: The 2006 revision, volume III: Analytical report. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.Google Scholar