, Volume 50, Issue 4, pp 1341–1362 | Cite as

Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections

  • Fanny JanssenEmail author
  • Leo J. G. van Wissen
  • Anton E. Kunst


We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970–2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.


Life expectancy Projection Smoking Europe Li-Lee methodology 



We would like to thank Anouschka van der Meulen and Trudy Lisci from Statistics Netherlands for the provision of detailed data on all-cause mortality and population size.


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Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fanny Janssen
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Leo J. G. van Wissen
    • 1
    • 3
  • Anton E. Kunst
    • 4
  1. 1.Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial SciencesUniversity of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Unit PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE2), Department of PharmacyUniversity of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic InstituteThe HagueThe Netherlands
  4. 4.Department of Social Medicine, Academic Medical CenterUniversity of AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands

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