Demography

, Volume 49, Issue 4, pp 1407–1432 | Cite as

Fertility Transitions and Schooling: From Micro- to Macro-Level Associations

Article

Abstract

Research on the schooling implications of fertility transitions often faces an aggregation problem: despite policy interest in macro-level outcomes, empirical studies usually focus on the micro-level effects of sibsize on schooling. This article proposes an aggregation framework for moving from micro- to macro-level associations between fertility and schooling. The proposed framework is an improvement over previous aggregation methods in that it considers concurrent changes in the effects of sibsize, socioeconomic context, and family structure. The framework is illustrated with data from six sub-Saharan countries. Possible extensions are discussed.

Keywords

Fertility transitions Demographic dividend Decomposition methods Aggregation methods Africa 

Supplementary material

13524_2012_131_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (95 kb)
ESM 1(PDF 94 kb)
13524_2012_131_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (2.6 mb)
ESM 2(PDF 2.60 MB)

References

  1. Angrist, J., Lavy, V., & Schlosser, A. (2010). Multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Labor Economics, 28, 773–824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anh, T. S., Knodel, J., Lam, D., & Friedman, J. (1998). Family size and children’s education in Vietnam. Demography, 35, 57–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Berry, K. J., & Martin, T. W. (1974). The synedochic fallacy: A challenge to recent research and theory-building in sociology. The Pacific Sociological Review, 17, 139–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Birdsall, N., Kelley, A., & Sinding, S. (2001). Population matters. Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  5. Black, S., Devereux, P. J., & Salvanes, K. G. (2005). The more the merrier? The effect of family composition on children’s education. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 669–700.Google Scholar
  6. Blake, J. (1989). Family size and achievement. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  7. Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2002). The demographic dividend. A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
  8. Bongaarts, J. (2003). Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences (Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 177). New York: Population Council.Google Scholar
  9. Bongaarts, J., & Watkins, S. C. (1996). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review, 22, 639–682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Case, A., Paxson, C., & Ableidinger, J. (2004). Orphans in Africa: Parental death, poverty, and school enrollment. Demography, 41, 483–508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cassen, R. (Ed.). (1994). Population and development: Old debates, new conclusions. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.Google Scholar
  12. Cohen, B. (1998). The emerging fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 26, 1431–1461.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Conley, D., & Glauber, R. (2006). Parental educational investment and children's academic risk: Estimates of the impact of sibship size and birth order from exogenous variation in fertility. Journal of Human Resources, 41, 722–737.Google Scholar
  14. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). (2010). Statcompiler, ORC Macro. Retrieved from http://www.statcompiler.com.
  15. DeRose, L. F., & Kravdal, O. (2007). The effects of educational reversals on first births in sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic multi-level perspective. Demography, 44, 59–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Desai, S. (1995). When are children from large families disadvantaged? Evidence from cross-national analyses. Population Studies, 49, 195–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Eloundou-Enyegue, P. M., & Williams, L. B. (2006). Family size and schooling in sub-Saharan African settings: A reexamination. Demography, 43, 25–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Guo, G., & VanWey, L. K. (1999). Sibship size and intellectual development: Is the relationship causal? American Sociological Review, 64, 169–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C. (1985). Child fosterage in West Africa. Population and Development Review, 11, 53–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. King, E. (1987). The effect of family size on family welfare: What do we know? In D. G. Johnson & R. D. Lee (Eds.), Population growth and economic development: Issues and evidence (pp. 373–411). Madison: The University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
  21. Kirk, D., & Pillet, B. (1998). Fertility levels, trends, and differentials in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s and 1990s. Studies in Family Planning, 29, 1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Knodel, J., Havanon, N., & Sittitrai, W. (1990). Family size and the education of children in the context of rapid fertility decline. Population and Development Review, 16, 31–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Knodel, J., & Wongsith, M. (1991). Family size and children’s education in Thailand: Evidence from a national sample. Demography, 28, 119–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lam, D., & Marteleto, L. (2005). Small families and large cohorts: The impact of the demographic transition on schooling in Brazil. In C. Lloyd (Ed.), Growing up global: The changing transitions to adulthood in developing countries (pp. 56–83). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  25. Lee, J. (2004). Sibling size and investment in children’s education: An Asian instrument (IZA Discussion Paper 1323). Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor.Google Scholar
  26. Lesthaeghe, R. (1993). Are there crisis-led transitions? Paper presented at the 1993 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, Ohio.Google Scholar
  27. Li, H., Zhang, J., & Zhu, Y. (2008). The quantity-quality trade-off of children in a developing country: Identification using Chinese twins. Demography, 45, 223–243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lindstrom, D. P., & Berhanu, B. (1999). The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in Ethiopia. Demography, 36, 247–261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lloyd, C. B. (1994). Investing in the next generation: The implications of high fertility at the level of the family (Research Division Working Papers No. 63). New York: The Population Council.Google Scholar
  30. Lloyd, C. B., & Blanc, A. K. (1996). Children’s schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of fathers, mothers, and others. Population and Development Review, 22, 265–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Lloyd, C. B., & Hewett, P. (2003). Primary schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: Recent trends and current challenges (Research Division, Working Papers No.176). New York: The Population Council.Google Scholar
  32. Lloyd, C. B., Kaufman, C. E., & Hewett, P. (2000). The spread of primary schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for fertility change. Population and Development Review, 26, 483–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Locoh, T., & Makdessi, Y. (1996). Population policies and fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa (CEPED Series, No. 2). Paris, France: Centre Français sur la Population et le Développement.Google Scholar
  34. Lu, Y., & Treiman, D. J. (2005, March–April). The effect of family size on educational attainment in China: Cohort variations. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, PA.Google Scholar
  35. Maralani, V. (2008). The changing relationship between family size and educational attainment over the course of socioeconomic development: Evidence from Indonesia. Demography, 45, 693–717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. McLanahan, S. (2004). Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography, 41, 607–627.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Michaelowa, K. (2001). Primary education quality in francophone sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of learning achievement and efficiency considerations. World Development, 29, 1699–1716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Minten, B., Francken, N., & Ralison, E. (2005). Dynamics in social services delivery and the rural economy of Madagascar: Descriptive results of the 2004 communes surveys (Cornell ILO Policy Brief). Ithaca, NY: Ilo.Google Scholar
  39. Mogstad, M., & Wiswall, M. (2009). How much should we trust linear instrumental variables estimators? an application to family size and children’s education (IZA Discussion Paper No. 4562). Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor.Google Scholar
  40. Montgomery, M. R., & Kouame, A. (1993). Fertility and schooling in Côte d'Ivoire: Is there a tradeoff? (Technical Working Paper No 11). Washington, DC: The World Bank.Google Scholar
  41. Montgomery, M. R., & Lloyd, C. B. (1999). Excess fertility, unintended births, and children’s schooling. In C. Bledsoe, J. B. Casterline, J. A. Johnson Kuhn, & J. G. Haaga (Eds.), Critical perspectives on schooling and fertility in the developing world (pp. 216–266). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  42. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). (1993). Demographic effects of economic reversals in sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  43. National Research Council (NRC). (1986). Population growth and economic development: Policy questions. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  44. Rodrik, D. (2005). Why we learn nothing from regressing economic growth on policies. Unpublished document. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
  45. Rosenzweig, M. R., & Wolpin, K. I. (1980). Testing the quantity/quality fertility model: The use of twins as a natural experiment. Econometrica, 48, 227–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Schultz, T. P. (2007). Population policies, fertility, women’s human capital, and child quality. Handbook of Development Economics, 4, 3249–3303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Shapiro, D., & Tambashe, B. O. (2002). Fertility transition in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa: Preliminary evidence of a three-stage process. Journal of African Population Studies, 7(2&3), 111–135.Google Scholar
  48. Thornton, A. (2001). The developmental paradigm, reading history sideways and family change. Demography, 38, 449–465.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. United Nations (UN). (2009). The millennium development goals report 2009. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  50. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). (2009). Assessing progress in Africa toward the millennium development goals. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: UNECA.Google Scholar
  51. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2009). Global trends report: 2008. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
  52. World Bank. (2005). World development indicators. Retrieved from http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline.

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue
    • 1
  • Sarah C. Giroux
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Development SociologyCornell UniversityIthacaUSA
  2. 2.Department of Development SociologyCornell UniversityIthacaUSA

Personalised recommendations