Abstract
Pricing tools for non-proportional reinsurance treaties often only provide layer prices, but no layer-independent collective risk model. There are, however, situations where such a layer-independent model is needed. Examples are large loss and catastrophe loss models for proportional reinsurance treaties. We show that the expected losses of a tower of reinsurance layers can always be matched using a piecewise Pareto distributed severity and provide an algorithm that can be used to convert layer information into a layer-independent collective risk model.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to thank the anonymous referee for his constructive comments which helped to improve the presentation of the paper substantially.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Technical details about the Pareto distribution
The purpose of this appendix is to define the Pareto alpha between two pieces of information (expected excess frequencies and/or expected losses of layers) more rigorously than in Sect. 3, and to prove existence and uniqueness. Moreover, we prove a technical lemma that is needed in Example 3.
Let \(0<t\le t_1<t_2\) and let \(f_1> f_2\) be the expected frequencies in excess of \(t_1\) and \(t_2\), respectively. Then we have
Definition 5
In this situation, we say that
is the Pareto alpha between \((t_1,f_1)\) and \((t_2,f_2)\).
Let \(\alpha \) be the Pareto alpha between \((t_1,f_1)\) and \((t_2,f_2)\) and let \(S=\sum _{n=1}^NX_n\) be a collective risk model with claim sizes \(X_n\sim {\text {Pareto}}(t,\alpha )\). Then the expected frequency in excess of \(t_i\) is given by \({\text {E}}(N)\cdot (1-F_{t,\alpha }(t_i))\), i.e. the model has the expected frequency \(f_1\) in excess of \(t_1\) if and only if the expected frequency in excess of \(t_2\) equals \(f_2\).
Lemma 4
Let \(0<t\le a< b<+\infty \). Let \(c:=b-a\) and let \(f>0\) be the expected frequency in excess of t. Then the map
is a strictly decreasing homeomorphism. In case of an unlimited layer \(+\infty \) xs a we have a strictly decreasing homeomorphism
Proof
We only consider the case of a limited layer. The proof for unlimited layers is similar. Since
is strictly decreasing for all \(x\in (a,b)\), the map
is strictly decreasing, too. We have
i.e. \(\Psi ^{(t,f)}_{c{\text {xs}}a}\) is surjective. Moreover, \(\Psi ^{(t,f)}_{c{\text {xs}}a}\) is continuous and consequently \(\Psi ^{(t,f)}_{c{\text {xs}}a}\) is a homeomorphism. \(\square \)
In the proof of Lemma 4 we have used the fact that a bijective, strictly monotonic and continuous function \(f:I\rightarrow J\subset \mathbb {R}\), where I is an open interval, is always a homeomorphism, i.e. the inverse \(f^{-1}\) is continuous as well. We will also use this fact in the proofs below.
Definition 6
Let \(0<t\le a<b\le +\infty \) and \(c:=b-a\). Let e denote the expected loss of the layer c xs a and let f be the expected frequency in excess of t. If \(0<e< f\cdot c\) then
is called the Pareto alpha between (t, f) and c xs a.
Let \(t \le t_1\le a\) and \(f_1>e/c\). Let \(\alpha \) be the Pareto alpha between \((t_1,f_1)\) and c xs a, and assume that \(S=\sum _{n=1}^N X_n\) is a collective risk model with \(X_n\sim {\text {Pareto}}(t,\alpha )\). Then the model has the expected frequency \(f_1\) in excess of \(t_1\), if and only if the expected loss of the layer c xs a equals e. Note that \(f_1>e/c\) only excludes the extreme case of a total loss model (cf. Sect. 2).
Lemma 5
Let \(0<t\le a<b\le +\infty \) and \(c:=b-a\). Let \(e>0\) denote the expected loss of the layer c xs a and let \(f_1>f_2>e/c\). For \(i\in \{1,2\}\) let \(\alpha _i\) be the Pareto alpha between \((t,f_i)\) and c xs a. Then we have
and if \(b<+\infty \), then
Let \(\sum _{n=1}^{N_i}X_{i,n}\), \(i\in \{1,2\}\) be collective risk models with \({\text {E}}(N_i)=f_i\) and \(X_{i,n}\sim {\text {Pareto}}(t,\alpha _i)\), which both match the expected loss of a layer c xs a with \(a\ge t\) and let \(f_1>f_2\). Then Lemma 5 states that the model with \(i=1\) has a greater expected layer entry frequency, whereas the model with \(i=2\) has a greater expected layer exit frequency (if \(b<+\infty \)). Lemma 5 is used in Example 3.
Proof
We have \(f_1\cdot I_{t,\alpha _2}(a,b)>f_2\cdot I_{t,\alpha _2}(a,b)=e=f_1\cdot I_{t,\alpha _1}(a,b)\). Applying Lemma 4 we conclude that \(\alpha _1>\alpha _2\). Since
there exits an \(x\in (a,b)\) such that \(f_1\cdot (1- F_{t,\alpha _1}(x)) \ge f_2\cdot (1- F_{t,\alpha _2}(x))\). Since \(\alpha _1>\alpha _2\), we have
For the case \(b<+\infty \), the proof of \( f_1\cdot (1- F_{t,\alpha _1}(b)) <f_2\cdot (1- F_{t,\alpha _2}(b)) \) is similar. \(\square \)
Lemma 6
Let \(0<t\le a_1<a_2\) and let \(b_1\le b_2\le +\infty \) with \( b_i>a_i\) and \(c_i:=b_i-a_i\). If \(b_2<+\infty \), then the map
is well-defined (i.e. does not depend on t) and is a strictly increasing homeomorphism. If \(b_1<b_2=+\infty \), then we have the (well-defined) strictly increasing homeomorphism
If \(b_1=b_2=+\infty \), then we have the (well-defined) strictly increasing homeomorphism
Proof
The case \(b_1<b_2=+\infty \) follows easily from
which is a consequence of Lemma 1 in Sect. 3. The case \(b_1=b_2=+\infty \) follows directly from
which is also a consequence of Lemma 1. For the case \(b_2<+\infty \), which is slightly more difficult to prove, see Riegel [11]. \(\square \)
Definition 7
Let \(0<t\le a_1<a_2\) and let \(b_1\le b_2\le +\infty \) with \( b_i>a_i\) and \(c_i:=b_i-a_i\). Moreover, let \(e_1>0\) and \(e_2>0\) be the expected losses of the layers \(c_1\) xs \(a_1\) and \(c_2\) xs \(a_2\), respectively. If \(b_2<+\infty \), then we additionally assume that \(e_1/e_2>c_1/c_2\) and if \(b_1=b_2=+\infty \), then we require \(e_1/e_2>1\). Then
is called the Pareto alpha between the layers \(c_1\) xs \(a_1\) and \(c_2\) xs \(a_2\).
Let \(\alpha \) be the Pareto alpha between the layers \(c_1\) xs \(a_1\) and \(c_2\) xs \(a_2\) (with \(a_1<a_2\) and \(a_1+c_1 \le a_2+c_2\)) and assume that \(S=\sum _{n=1}^N X_n\) is a collective risk model with \(t\le a_1\) and \(X_n\sim {\text {Pareto}}(t,\alpha )\). Then the model matches the expected loss \(e_1\) for the layer \(c_1\) xs \(a_1\) if and only if it matches the expected loss \(e_2\) of the layer \(c_2\) xs \(a_2\). Note that the condition \(e_1/e_2>c_1/c_2\) in the case \(c_2<+\infty \) simply means that the risk rate on line of the lower layer \(c_1\) xs \(a_1\) is greater than the risk rate on line of the higher layer \(c_2\) xs \(a_2\) (cf. Sect. 2).
Appendix 2: Proof of Proposition 1
Let L denote the Lévy metric, i.e.
for distribution functions F and G. Let G be a distribution function with \(G(0)=0\) and let \(\varepsilon > 0\). We show that there exist parameter vectors \(\mathbf {t}\) and \(\varvec{\alpha }\) such that \(L(F_{\mathbf {t},\varvec{\alpha }}, G) \le \varepsilon \). Choose \(0<\delta \le \varepsilon \) such that \(G(\delta )<1-\delta \). This is possible since G is right-continuous. Let
We define \(t_1:=\delta /2\), \(s_1:=1\) and for \(k=2,\ldots , n\)
For \(k=1,\ldots ,n-1\) let
and choose an arbitrary \(\alpha _n>0\). Let \(\mathbf {t}:=(t_1,\ldots ,t_{n})\), \(\varvec{\alpha }:=(\alpha _1,\ldots ,\alpha _n)\). Since \(\alpha _k\) is the Pareto alpha between \((t_k,s_k)\) and \((t_{k+1},s_{k+1})\) we then have
for \(k=0,\ldots ,n-2\). Moreover, we have \(F_{\mathbf {t},\varvec{\alpha }}(x),G(x)\in [1-\delta ,1]\) for \(x\ge (n-1)\cdot \delta \). This implies
For \(x\in [k\delta ,(k+1)\delta ]\) with \(k+1\le n-2\) we have
For \(x\in [(n-2)\delta ,(n-1)\delta ]\) we have
For \(x\ge (n-1)\delta \) we have
\(\square \)
Appendix 3: Proof of Lemma 3
We have to show that it is possible to find an \(f_1>e_1/c_1\) such that Matching Algorithm 1 does not stop at an \(i<k\) in Step 2.
The case \(k=1\) is clear. For \(k\in \{2,3\}\) we only sketch the proof and leave the (simple) technical details to the reader. Let \(\alpha (f_i)\) denote the Pareto alpha between \((a_i,f_i)\) and the layer \(c_i\) xs \(a_i\). Then, for every \(i<k\),
is a strictly decreasing homeomorphism. If \(k=3\), then we choose \(f_2\), such that
(possible, since \(e_1/c_1>e_2/c_2>e_3/c_3\)). If \(k=2\), then we only require \(e_1/c_1>f_2>e_2/c_2\). Then Matching Algorithm 1 provides the requested result if we start with \(f_1:=\phi _1^{-1}(f_2)\). \(\square \)
Appendix 4: Proof of Theorem 1
Either frequencies \(f_i\) with \(f_1 > e_1/c_1\) and \(e_{i-1}/c_{i-1}>f_i>e_{i}/c_{i}\) for \(i=2,\ldots ,k\) are given or they are calculated in Step 1 of Matching Algorithm 2. After Step 2 of the algorithm, where we define \(s_i:=f_i/f_1\) and \(l_i:=e_i/f_1\), the preconditions of the following proposition are fulfilled.
Proposition 2
Consider a sequence of attachment points \(0<a_1<\cdots <a_{k}\), a sequence of excess probabilities \(1=s_1>s_2>\cdots>s_{k}>0\) and a sequence of loss expectations \(l_1,\ldots ,l_k>0\) for the layers \(a_{i+1}-a_i\) xs \(a_i\) (with \(a_{k+1}:=+\infty \)), such that
for \(i=1,\ldots ,k-1\). Let \(n=2k-1\). Then there exist parameters \(\mathbf {t}=(t_1,\ldots ,t_n)\) with \(t_{2i-1}=a_i\) and \(\varvec{\alpha }=(\alpha _1,\ldots ,\alpha _n)\) with \(\alpha _i>0\) such that
for \(i=1,\ldots ,k\).
In the following proof of Proposition 2, it is explicitly shown how the parameter vectors \(\mathbf {t}\) and \(\varvec{\alpha }\) can be calculated inductively. Matching Algorithm 2 uses exactly the same approach for the calculation of the parameter vectors of the piecewise Pareto distribution. Therefore, the algorithm always leads to the desired collective risk model.
Proof
We use induction to prove this statement. In the base case \(k=1\) we can use \(t_1:=a_1\) and \(\alpha _1:=a_1/l_1+1\) (cf. Lemma 1). For the inductive step \(k\rightarrow k+1\) we assume now that the statement is true for a \(k\ge 1\). Then we have thresholds \(\mathbf {t}^{(k)}=(t_1,\ldots ,t_{2k-1})\) with \(t_{2i-1}=a_i\) and \(\varvec{\alpha }^{(k)}=(\alpha _1,\ldots ,\alpha _{2k-2},\alpha _{2k-1}^{(k)})\) such that
for \(i=1,\ldots ,k\). Let \(t_{2k+1}:=a_{k+1}\) and
We will show that there exist \(t_{2k}\in (a_k,a_{k+1})\) and \(\alpha _{2k-1},\alpha _{2k}> 0\) such that
for \(\mathbf {t}=(t_1,\ldots ,t_{2k+1})\) and \(\varvec{\alpha }=(\alpha _1,\ldots ,\alpha _{2k+1})\). Due to \(1-F_{\mathbf {t},\varvec{\alpha }}(a_{k+1})=s_{k+1}\) and the definition of \(\alpha _{2k+1}\) we then also have
(cf. Lemma 1 in Sect. 3). For \(\tau \in (a_k,a_{k+1})\) and \(\alpha \ge 0\) we define
and
For \(\alpha _{2k-1}>0\) and \(\alpha _{2k}>0\) we have
i.e. (1) is equivalent to
If (3) is fulfilled then (2) is equivalent to
For fixed \(\tau \in (a_k,a_{k+1})\) the functions \(\alpha \mapsto \sigma ^{(k)}(\tau ,\alpha )\) and \(\alpha \mapsto \lambda ^{(k)}(\tau ,\alpha )\) are continuous and strictly decreasing and we have
Therefore, for a given \(t_{2k}\in (a_k,a_{k+1})\), the Eqs. (3) and (4) can be solved with \(\alpha _{2k-1}>0\) and \(\alpha _{2k}=\sigma ^{(k)}(t_{2k},\alpha _{2k-1})>0\) if and only if
The functions
are strictly increasing and we have
and
Let
and
We have \(\tau _u^{(k)}>a_k\), and if \(\tau _l^{(k)}>a_k\), then we have
Since \(\tau _l^{(k)}<a_{k+1}\), it results that \(\tau _l^{(k)}<\tau _u^{(k)}\). We select a \(t_{2k}\in (\tau _l^{(k)},\tau _u^{(k)})\) and obtain
i.e. Eqs. (3) and (4) can be solved with \(\alpha _{2k-1}>0\) such that \(\alpha _{2k}:=\sigma ^{(k)}(t_{2k},\alpha _{2k-1})>0\). \(\square \)
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Riegel, U. Matching tower information with piecewise Pareto. Eur. Actuar. J. 8, 437–460 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-018-0177-3
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Keywords
- Pareto distribution
- Reinsurance pricing
- Collective risk model