Advertisement

Journal of Meteorological Research

, Volume 33, Issue 4, pp 720–733 | Cite as

Performance of BCC-CSM Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions in Simulating Extreme Climate Events in China

  • Linxiao Wei
  • Xiaoge XinEmail author
  • Chan Xiao
  • Yonghua Li
  • Yao Wu
  • Hongyu Tang
Regular Article
  • 53 Downloads

Abstract

In this study, the performance of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1) (280-km resolution) and the BCC-CSM1.1m (110-km resolution) in simulating extreme climate events over China in the last 40 years is compared. Both models capture the main spatial distribution features of heavy precipitation (R95T), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the annual count of days with precipitation mm (R1), the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5), and the numbers of frost days (FD) and summer days (SU). The BCC-CSM1.1m has a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of extreme climate events than the BCC-CSM1.1, including R95T, CWD, R1, and the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII). However, the BCC-CSM1.1m does not show an improvement in simulating the number of days with extreme precipitation (R90N), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the heat wave duration index (HWDI), the warm day frequency (TX90P), and cold night frequency (TN10P). This indicates that the simulation of the R95T, CWD, R1, and SDII climate events is more sensitive to the resolution of the model. The improved BCC-CSM1.1m is used to explore the projection of extreme climate change in China during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that extreme precipitation will increase dramatically over North and Southwest China in the late 21st century. The CWD index will decrease on the Tibetan Plateau and in northeastern and central China and will increase in other parts of China; R1 will increase in northern China and decrease in southern China; Rx5 will increase dramatically in southern China; FD will decrease and SU will increase over China in the late 21st century under both emission scenarios, with larger amplitudes in RCP8.5.

Key words

extreme climate events BCC-CSM evaluation projections 

References

  1. Bao, J. W., J. M. Feng, and Y. L. Wang, 2015: Dynamical down-scaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 8227–8243, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2015: Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China: An intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3. Climatic Change, 129, 197–211, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1319-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Ding, Y. H., and D. C. L. Chan, 2005: The East Asian summer monsoon: An overview. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117–142, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Feng, L., and T. J. Zhou, 2015: Simulation of summer precipitation and associated water vapor transport over the Tibetan Plateau by meteorological research institute model. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 385–396, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14125. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  5. Freychet, N., H. H. Hsu, C. Chou, et al., 2015: Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 projections: A link between the change in extreme precipitation and monsoon dynamics. J. Climate, 28, 1477–1493, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00449.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Gao, X. J., Y. Shi, and F. Giorgi, 2011: A high resolution simulation of climate change over China. Sci. China Earth Sci., 54, 462–472, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-010-4035-7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Gao, X. J., Y. Shi, D. F. Zhang, et al., 2012: Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chinese Sci. Bull., 57, 1188–1195, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Griffies, S. M., A. Gnanadesikan, K. W. Dixon, et al., 2005: Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Sci., 1, 45–79, doi:  https://doi.org/10.5194/os-1-45-2005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ji, J. J., M. Huang, and K. R. Li, 2008: Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century. Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci., 51, 885–898, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-008-0039-y.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Jiang, Y. M., A. N. Huang, and H. M. Wu, 2015: Evaluation of the performance of Beijing climate center climate system model with different horizontal resolution in simulating the annual surface temperature over Central Asia. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 535–547, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3878/j.sssn.1006-9895.1408.14133. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  11. Jiang, Z. H., X. Zhang, and J. Wang, 2008: Projection of climate change in China in the 21st century by IPCC-AR4 Models. Geograph. Res., 71, 787–799, doi: 10.322j/j.issn:1000-0585.2008.04.007. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  12. Jiang, Z. H., W. L. Chen, J. Song, et al., 2009: Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 109–120, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn:1006-9895.2009.01.10. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  13. Jing, C., T. Jiang, Y. J. Wang, et al., 2016: A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 74, 572–582, doi:  https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2016.037. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  14. Kan, M. Y., A. N. Huang, Y. Zhao, et al., 2015: Evaluation of the summer precipitation over China simulated by BCC_CSM model with different horizontal resolutions during the recent half century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 4657–4670, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Li, H. X., H. P. Chen., H. J. Wang, et al., 2018: Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models. Sci. Total Environ., 640–641, 543–554, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Liu, X. H., Z. J. Ji, H. B. Wu, et al., 2006: Distributing characteristics and interdecadal difference of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in China for latest 40 years. J. Trop. Meteor., 22, 618–624, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn:1004-4965.2006.06.015. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  17. Peings, Y., J. Cattiaux, and H. Douville, 2013: Evaluation and response of winter cold spells over Western Europe in CMIP5 models. Climate Dyn., 41, 3025–3037, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1565-z.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Sabeerali, C. T., S. A. Rao, A. R. Dhakate, et al., 2015: Why ensemble mean projection of South Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable? Climate Dyn., 45, 161–174, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2269-3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Saha, A., S. Ghosh, A. S. Sahana, et al., 2014: Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7323–7330, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Shen, Y. P., and G. Y. Wang, 2013: Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 35, 1068–1076, doi:  https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0120. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  21. Sooraj, K. P., P. Terray, and P. Xavier, 2016: Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: Assessments using CMIP5 models. Climate Dyn., 46, 4003–4025, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2817-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Sun, Q. H., C. Y. Miao, and Q. Y. Duan, 2016: Extreme climate events and agricultural climate indices in China: CMIP5 model evaluation and projections. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 43–61, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Wang, C. Q., L. W. Zou, and T. J. Zhou, 2018: SST biases over the Northwest Pacific and possible causes in CMIP5 models. Sci. China Earth Sci., 61, 792–803, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9171-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Wang, Q., A. N. Huang, Y. Zhao, et al., 2016: Evaluation of the precipitation seasonal variation over eastern China simulated by BCC_CSM model with two horizontal resolutions. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 8374–8389, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1022/0016JD024959.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wu, J., and X. J. Gao, 2013: A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets. Chinese J. Geophys., 66, 1102–1111, doi:  https://doi.org/10.0388/cjg20130406. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  26. Wu, T. W., 2012: A mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme for large-scale models: Description and test with observations. Climate Dyn., 38, 725–744, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-0995-3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Wu, T. W., R. C. Yu, and F. Zhang, 2008: A modified dynamic framework for the atmospheric spectral model and its application. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2235–2253, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2514.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Wu, T. W., R. C. Yu, F. Zhang, et al., 2010: The Beijing climate center atmospheric general circulation model: Description and its performance for the present-day climate. Climate Dyn., 34, 123–147, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Xin, X. G., L. Zhang, J. Zhang, et al., 2013: Climate change projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 climate model under RCP scenarios. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, 413–129, doi:  https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Yang, S. L., J. M. Feng, W. J. Dong, et al., 2014: Analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1209–1220, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3119-2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Yu, E. T., J. Q. Sun, H. P. Chen, et al., 2015: Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: Climatology and extremes. Climate Dyn., 45, 2013–2031, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Yu, M., J. P. Li, F. Zheng, et al., 2019: Simulating the IPOD, East Asian summer monsoon, and their relationships in CMIP5. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 135, 1307–1322, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2442-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Zhai, P. M., and F. M. Ren, 1997: On changes of China’s maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent 40 years. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 55, 418–429, doi:  https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1997.042. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  34. Zhai, P. M., F. M. Ren, and Q. Zhang, 1999: Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 57, 208–216, doi:  https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1999.019. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  35. Zhang, B., 2015: Evaluation and projection for extreme temperature events in China by CMIP5 global climate models. Master dissertation, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, China, 84 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  36. Zhou, J., and H. S. Chen, 2012: Impact of interannual soil moisture anomaly on simulation of extreme climate events in China. Part I: Model evaluation of CAM3.1. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1077–1092, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11047. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  37. Zhou, L., M. C. Lan, R. H. Cai, et al., 2018: Projection and uncertainties of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River valley in the early 21st century. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 76, 47–61, doi:  https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2017.084. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  38. Zhou, T. J., and L. W. Zou, 2014: Atlas of global and regional climate projections. Prog. Inquisit. Mut. Climatis, 10, 149–152, doi:  https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.02.010. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  39. Zhou, T. J., L. W. Zou, B. Wu, et al., 2014: Development of earth/climate system models in China: A review from the coupled model intercomparison project perspective. J. Meteor. Res., 28, 762–779, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4501-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Zou, L. W., T. J. Zhou, and D. D. Peng, 2016: Dynamical down-scaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 1442–1458, doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Linxiao Wei
    • 1
  • Xiaoge Xin
    • 2
    Email author
  • Chan Xiao
    • 2
  • Yonghua Li
    • 1
  • Yao Wu
    • 1
  • Hongyu Tang
    • 1
  1. 1.Chongqing Climate CenterChongqing Meteorological AdministrationChongqingChina
  2. 2.National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations