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Journal of Meteorological Research

, Volume 32, Issue 4, pp 560–570 | Cite as

Sensitivity Experiments on the Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific under Warming Ocean Conditions

  • Yixuan Shen
  • Yuan Sun
  • Zhong Zhong
  • Kefeng Liu
  • Jian Shi
Article

Abstract

Recent studies found that in the context of global warming, the observed tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit significant poleward migration trend in terms of the mean latitude where TCs reach their lifetime-maximum intensity in the western North Pacific (WNP). This poleward migration of TC tracks can be attributed to not only anthropogenic forcing (e.g., continuous increase of sea surface temperature (SST)), but also impacts of other factors (e.g., natural variability). In the present study, to eliminate the impacts of other factors and thus focus on the impact of unvaried SST on climatological WNP TC tracks, the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to conduct a suite of idealized sensitivity experiments with increased SST. Comparisons among the results of these experiments show the possible changes in climatological TC track, TC track density, and types of TC track in the context of SST increase. The results demonstrate that under the warmer SST conditions, the climatological mean TC track systematically shifts poleward significantly in the WNP, which is consistent with the previous studies. Meanwhile, the ocean warming also leads to the decreased (increased) destructive potential of TCs in low (middle) latitudes, and thus northward migration of the region where TCs have the largest impact. Further results imply the possibility that under the ocean warming, the percentage of TCs with westward/northwestward tracks decreases/increases distinctly.

Key words

tropical cyclone ocean warming poleward shift numerical experiment 

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Copyright information

© The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yixuan Shen
    • 1
  • Yuan Sun
    • 1
  • Zhong Zhong
    • 1
  • Kefeng Liu
    • 1
  • Jian Shi
    • 1
  1. 1.College of Meteorology and OceanographyNational University of Defense TechnologyNanjingChina

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