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Journal of Meteorological Research

, Volume 32, Issue 1, pp 99–112 | Cite as

Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

  • Mingjin Zhan
  • Xiucang Li
  • Hemin Sun
  • Jianqing Zhai
  • Tong Jiang
  • Yanjun Wang
Regular Articles

Abstract

We used daily maximum temperature data (1986–2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity–area–duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330–1680 times yr–1, 31.4–33.3°C, and 1.76–3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5–392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986–2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13–6.84, 0.32–1.50, and 15.98%–30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73–12.48, 0.64–2.76, and 31.96%–50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%–39.2% and 26.6%–48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

Keywords

extreme maximum temperature events population exposure 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming COSMO-CLM regional climate model China 

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Notes

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the ISI–MIP coordination group at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Studies in Germany for the provision of the GFDLESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROCESMCHEM, NorESM1-M, and MPI-ESM-LR data. We are grateful to Anqian Wang and Jinlong Huang of the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and to Jing Chen, Cheng Jing, and other graduate students for participating in this work. The authors are grateful for the constructive comments and suggestions by the editor and reviewers.

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Copyright information

© The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mingjin Zhan
    • 1
    • 2
    • 5
  • Xiucang Li
    • 3
    • 4
  • Hemin Sun
    • 3
  • Jianqing Zhai
    • 4
  • Tong Jiang
    • 4
  • Yanjun Wang
    • 3
  1. 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Geography and Remote SensingNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjingChina
  4. 4.National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina
  5. 5.Jiangxi Provincial Climate CenterNanchangChina

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