Journal of Meteorological Research

, Volume 31, Issue 6, pp 1085–1095 | Cite as

Multi-scheme corrected dynamic–analogue prediction of summer precipitation in northeastern China based on BCC_CSM

  • Yihe Fang
  • Haishan Chen
  • Zhiqiang Gong
  • Fangshu Xu
  • Chunyu Zhao
Regular Articles
  • 34 Downloads

Abstract

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.

Keywords

summer precipitation northeastern China sea surface temperature El Niño–Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic–analogue correction probabilistic prediction 

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Copyright information

© The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yihe Fang
    • 1
    • 2
  • Haishan Chen
    • 1
  • Zhiqiang Gong
    • 3
  • Fangshu Xu
    • 4
  • Chunyu Zhao
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, and School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjingChina
  2. 2.Regional Climate Center of ShenyangShenyangChina
  3. 3.Laboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Monitoring and Diagnose, National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina
  4. 4.Liaoning Meteorological Service CenterShenyangChina

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