Advertisement

Journal of Meteorological Research

, Volume 31, Issue 1, pp 49–60 | Cite as

Observed, reconstructed, and simulated decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China

  • Jingyun Zheng
  • Maowei Wu
  • Quansheng Ge
  • Zhixin Hao
  • Xuezhen Zhang
Article

Abstract

Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736–2000, dry–wet index data for A.D. 500–2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth System Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China is studied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are: 22–24 and quasi-70 yr over the North China Plain; 32–36, 44–48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang–Huai area; and 32–36 and 44–48 yr in the Jiang–Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation reveals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North China Plain, Jiang–Huai area, and Jiang–Nan area, at scales of 20–35, 35–50, and 50–80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry (wet) conditions over the North China Plain, but wet (dry) conditions in the Jiang–Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data–model comparison suggests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastern China, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.

Key words

decadal variability dominant cycle summer precipitation eastern China data–model comparison 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Chan, J. C. L., and W. Zhou, 2005: PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over South China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08810, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022015.Google Scholar
  2. Ding, Y. H., Z. Y. Wang, and Y. Sun, 2008: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1139–1161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Ding, Y. H., Y. Sun, Z. Y. Wang, et al., 2009: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part II: Possible causes. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1926–1944.Google Scholar
  4. Ge, Q. S., X. F. Guo, J. Y. Zheng, et al., 2008: Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736. Chinese Sci. Bull., 53, 107–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Gong, Z. Q., J. H. Zhao, and G. L. Feng, 2013: Analysis of the summer precipitation of 2012 in East China and its possibility of decadal shift. Acta Phys. Sinica, 62, 099205, doi: 10.7498/aps.62.099205. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  6. Hu, Z. Z., 1997: Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500-hPa height and global sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 19403–19412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Huang, R. H., Y. H. Xu, and L. T. Zhou, 1999: The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China. Plateau Meteor., 18, 465–476. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  8. Huang, R. H., J. L. Chen, and Y. Liu, 2011: Interdecadal variation of the leading modes of summertime precipitation anomalies over eastern China and its association with water vapor transport over East Asia. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 589–606. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  9. Huang, R. H., Y. Liu, and T. Feng, 2013: Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies, internal dynamical causes. Chinese Sci. Bull., 58, 1339–1349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Hurrell, J. W., M. M. Holland, P. R. Gent, et al., 2013: The community earth system model: A framework for collaborative research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 1339–1360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Lawrence, D. M., K. W. Oleson, M. G. Flanner, et al., 2011: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, M03001, doi: 10.1029/2011MS00045.Google Scholar
  12. MacDonald, G. M., and R. A. Case, 2005: Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08703, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, et al., 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1467–1485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, G. Boer, et al., 2014: Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 243–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Neale, R. B., J. Richter, S. Park, et al., 2013: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Climate, 26, 5150–5168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Qian, C., and T. J. Zhou, 2014: Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2010. J. Climate, 27, 1210–1222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. The Council of the Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2011: Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing, 710 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  18. Wang, L., Y. Qian, Y. C. Zhang, et al., 2016: Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2942–2957, doi: 10.1002/joc.4530.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Wang, S. W., 1962a: The multi-year variation of atmospheric centers of action. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 32(S1), 304–318. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  20. Wang, S. W., 1962b: The multi-year variation of atmospheric centers of action over eastern Asia and the oscillation of climate in China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 32, 19–36. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  21. Wang, S. W., 1962c: Analysis on the climate oscillation in Shanghai, China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 32, 322–336. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  22. Wang, S. W., 1963: A preliminary study on the characteristics and evolution of mean monthly circulation. Part I: Zonal index. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 33, 361–374. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  23. Wang, S. W., 1964a: A preliminary study on the characteristics and evolution of mean monthly circulation. Part II: Ultra-long waves. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 34, 316–328. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  24. Wang, S. W., 1964b: Oscillation of atmospheric circulation in recent 90 years, Part I. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 34, 486–506. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  25. Wang, S. W., 1965: Oscillation of atmospheric circulation in recent 90 years, Part II. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 35, 200–214. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  26. Wang, S. W., 1973: Atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies and outlook. Meteor. Sci. Technol., (3), 24–30. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  27. Wang, S. W., and Z. C. Zhao, 1979a: The 36-yr wetness oscillation in China and its mechanism. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 37, 64–73. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  28. Wang, S. W., and Z. C. Zhao, 1979b: An analysis of historical data of droughts and floods in last 500 years in China. Acta Geogr. Sinica, 34, 329–341. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  29. Wang, S. W., Q. E. Gong, and F. L. Niu, 1963: Study on climate oscillation in China. Acta Sci. Nat. Univ. Pek., (4), 343–358. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  30. WCRP, 2009: The World Climate Research Programme Implementation Plan 2010–2015. WMO/TD No. 1503, Geneva, WMO, 43 pp.Google Scholar
  31. Xu, Z. Q., K. Fan, and H. J. Wang, 2015: Decadal variation of summer precipitation over China and associated atmospheric circulation after the late 1990s. J. Climate, 28, 4086–4106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Zhang, Q. Y., J. M. Lü, L. M. Yang, et al., 2007: The interdecadal variation of precipitation pattern over China during summer and its relationship with the atmospheric internal dynamic processes and extra-forcing factors. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1290–1300. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  33. Zhang, R. H., 2015: Natural and human-induced changes in summer climate over the East Asian monsoon region in the last half century: A review. Adv. Climate Change Res., 6, 131–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004–1020.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Zheng, J. Y., Z. X. Hao, and Q. S. Ge, 2005: Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci., 48, 2182–2193.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Zheng, J. Y., W. C. Wang, Q. S. Ge, et al., 2006: Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 17, 579–592.Google Scholar
  37. Zheng, J. Y., M. W. Wu, Z. X. Hao, et al., 2016: Spatial pattern of decadal variation of summer precipitation in eastern China: Comparison of observation and CESM control simulation. Geogr. Res., 35, 14–24. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  38. Zhou, B. T., and D. D. Xia, 2012: Interdecadal change of the connection between winter North Pacific Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley. Sci. China Earth Sci., 55, 2049–2057.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Zhou, W., C. Y. Li, and X. Wang, 2007: Possible connection between Pacific oceanic interdecadal pathway and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027809.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, W. Zhou, et al., 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dyn., 36, 1463–1473.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, J. H. Ma, et al., 2015: Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to the late 1990s’ shift in East China summer rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8817–8827, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Zhu, Y. M., and X. Q. Yang, 2003: Relationships between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and climate variabilities in China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 61, 641–654. (in Chinese)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Chinese Meteorological Society and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jingyun Zheng
    • 1
  • Maowei Wu
    • 1
    • 2
  • Quansheng Ge
    • 1
  • Zhixin Hao
    • 1
  • Xuezhen Zhang
    • 1
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations