Diabetology International

, Volume 10, Issue 3, pp 198–205 | Cite as

Trends in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes in a Japanese community, 1988–2012: the Hisayama Study

  • Naoko MukaiEmail author
  • Jun Hata
  • Yoichiro Hirakawa
  • Tomoyuki Ohara
  • Daigo Yoshida
  • Udai Nakamura
  • Takanari Kitazono
  • Toshiharu Ninomiya
Original Article



We estimated secular trends in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and prediabetes, and examined potential explanatory factors for these trends in a Japanese community.


4 cross-sectional examinations were conducted among subjects aged 40–79 years in 1988 (n = 2,490), 2002 (n = 2,856), 2007 (n = 2,761), and 2012 (n = 2,644). Glucose tolerance status was defined by a 75g oral glucose tolerance test.


The age-standardized prevalence of T2DM increased significantly in both sexes from 1988 to 2002, and thereafter it remained stable in men, and decreased nonsignificantly in women from 2002 to 2012. The age-standardized prevalence of prediabetes in men increased significantly between 1988 and 2002, but then decreased significantly. A similar trend was observed in women. The age-specific prevalence of T2DM increased greatly in men aged 60–79 years and women aged 70–79 years from 1988 to 2002, and then plateaued at a high level, while a significant decreasing trend was observed in women aged 40–49 years. The mean values of body mass index (BMI) increased steeply in these elderly subjects from 1988 to 2002, and remained at a high level, whereas those in middle-aged women decreased appreciably over the study period.


Our findings suggest that in Japanese, there was no further increase in the prevalence of T2DM or prediabetes in either men or women in the 2000s. Secular change in the BMI level was likely to contribute to trends in the prevalence of T2DM, and thus the management of obesity may be important to reduce the prevalence of T2DM.


Type 2 diabetes Prediabetes Prevalence 75-g oral glucose tolerance test Community-based research 



The authors thank the staff of the Division of Health and Welfare of Hisayama for their cooperation in this study. This study was supported in part by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (JP16H02644, and JP16H02692) ,(B) (JP16H05850, JP16H05557, JP17H04126, and JP18H02737) and (C) (JP16K09244, JP17K09114, JP17K09113, JP17K01853, JP18K07565, and JP18K09412) and (Early-Career Scientists) (JP18K17925, and JP18K17382) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan; by Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Junkankitou-Ippan-003, and H30-Shokuhin-[Sitei]-005); and by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (JP18dk0207025, JP18ek0210082, JP18gm0610007, JP18ek0210083, JP18km0405202, JP18ek0210080, JP18fk0108075).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest associated with this manuscript.

Human rights statement

All procedures followed were in accordance with the ethical standards of the responsible committee on human experimentation (the Kyushu University Institutional Review Board for Clinical Research, date of approval: 28 July 2017, approval no. 29-213) and with the Helsinki Declaration of 1964 and later versions.

Informed consent

Informed consent was obtained from the participants before they were included in the study.

Supplementary material

13340_2018_380_MOESM1_ESM.docx (629 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 629 kb)


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Copyright information

© The Japan Diabetes Society 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Naoko Mukai
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    Email author
  • Jun Hata
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Yoichiro Hirakawa
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Tomoyuki Ohara
    • 2
    • 4
  • Daigo Yoshida
    • 1
    • 2
  • Udai Nakamura
    • 3
  • Takanari Kitazono
    • 1
    • 3
  • Toshiharu Ninomiya
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Center for Cohort Studies, Graduate School of Medical SciencesKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan
  2. 2.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Graduate School of Medical SciencesKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan
  3. 3.Department of Medicine and Clinical Science, Graduate School of Medical SciencesKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan
  4. 4.Department of Neuropsychiatry, Graduate School of Medical SciencesKyushu UniversityFukuokaJapan

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