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Extracting a Common Signal in Tree Ring Widths with a Semi-parametric Bayesian Hierarchical Model

  • Ophélie Guin
  • Philippe Naveau
  • Jean-Jacques Boreux
Article
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Introduction

One key issue to understanding past and recent climate changes is to derive, study and apply efficient statistical procedures to reconstruct past records of temperatures and precipitation. Direct measurements of such climatological variables are missing whenever the instrumental record length is shorter than the period of interest. The so-called proxies, i.e., indirect measurements, offer the raw material to reconstruct past chronologies in such situations. Proxies should contain records of past climates, but they are also tainted by important and complex non-climatic factors, e.g., local ecological effects. This explains that most published climate reconstruction results/methods in the statistical literature (Li et al. 2010b; Wahl et al. 2010; Cressie and Tingley 2010; Li et al. 2010a; Smith 2010a; McIntyre and McKitrick 2011; Smith 2010b; Christiansen et al. 2009; Esper et al. 2002; Tingley et al. 2012; Tingley and Huybers 2013; Werner and Tingley 2015) generally do not...

Keywords

Bayesian Dendrochronology Semi-parametric 

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Copyright information

© International Biometric Society 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Laboratoire de Sciences du Climat et de l’EnvironnementIPSL-CNRSGif-sur-YvetteFrance
  2. 2.University of LiègeArlonBelgium

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