Age Specificity in Conditional Ring-Recovery Models
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We consider the case of age-specific ring-recovery data obtained only from recovered individual birds and modelled by conditioning a multinomial distribution on the recovery. These models may be appealing when the information about the numbers of marked individuals is missing, but they have previously been analyzed by ignoring a large set of nuisance parameters, the recovery probabilities. We investigate the consequences of this conditioning by relating the age-time specific structure of recovery probabilities to the estimation of survival.
Key WordsBayesian estimation Conditional multinomial MCMC Survival probabilities
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