Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

Article
First Online:
Received:
Accepted:
  • 143 Downloads

Abstract

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models’ MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models’ MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

Key words

Annual cycle precipitation future change Asian monsoon CMIP5 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bolvin, D. T., R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, E. J. Nelkin, and J. P. Poutiainen, 2009: Comparison of GPCP monthly and daily precipitation estimates with high-latitude gauge observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 1843–1857, doi:10.1175/2009JAMC2147.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, J. McBride, and C.-H. Liu, 2005: Annual cycle of Southeast Asia-Maritime continent rainfall and the asymmetric monsoon transition. J. Climate, 18, 287–301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3257.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chou, C., and C.-W. Lan, 2012: Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J. Climate, 25, 222–235, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00097.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chu, J.-E., S. N. Hameed, and K.-J. Ha, 2012: Nonlinear, intraseasonal phases of the East Asian summer monsoon: Extraction and analysis using self-organizing maps. J. Climate, 25, 6975–6988, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00512.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Dash, S. K., S. K. Mishra, K. C. Pattnayak, A. Mamgain, L. Mariotti, E. Coppola, F. Giorgi, and G. Giuliani, 2015: Projected seasonal-mean summer monsoon over India and adjoining regions for the twenty-first century. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 122, 581–593, doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1310-0.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Gadgil, S., and G. Asha, 1992: Intraseasonal variation of the summer monsoon I: Observational aspects. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 517–527, doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B_517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Goswami, B. N., G. Wu, and T. Yasunari, 2006: The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations, and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 19, 5078–5099, doi:10.1175/JCLI3901.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Ha, K.-J., and E. Ha, 2006: Climatic change and interannual fluctuations in the long-term record of monthly precipitation for Seoul. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 607–618, doi:10.1002/joc.1272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ha, K.-J., and S.-S. Lee, 2007: On the interannual variability of the Bonin high associated with the East Asian summer monsoon rain. Climate Dyn., 28, 67–83, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0169-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ha, K.-J., K.-Y. Heo, S.-S. Lee, K.-S. Yun, and J.-G. Jhun, 2012: Variability in the East Asian monsoon: A review. Meteor. Appl., 19, 200–215, doi: 10.1002/met.1320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hsu, P.-C., T. Li, H. Murakami, and A. Kitoh, 2013: Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1247–1260, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woolen, S. K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 513–524, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kang, I.-S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383–395, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0245-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kar, S. K., and K.-J. Ha, 2003: Characteristics differences of rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning activity over south Korea during the summer monsoon season, Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2312–2323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kitoh, A., H. Endo, K. K. Kumar, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, P. Goswami, and T. Zhou, 2013: Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 3053–3065, doi:10.1002/jgrd. 50258.Google Scholar
  16. Lau, K.-M., G. J. Yang, and S. H. Shen, 1988: Seasonal and intraseasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 18–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Lau, K.-M., and S. Yang, 1997: Climatology and interannual variability of the southeast Asian summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 141–162, doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0016-y.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lee, J.-Y., and B. Wang, 2014: Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 42, 101–119, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lin Ho, and B. Wang, 2002: The time-space structure of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon: A fast annual cycle view. J. Climate, 15, 2001–2019.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Matsumoto, J., 1997: Seasonal transition of summer rainy season over Indochina and adjacent monsoon region. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 231–245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Schaefer, J. T., 1990: The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 570–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Seo, K.-H., J. Ok, J.-H. Son, and D.-H. Cha, 2013: Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models. J. Climate, 26, 7662–7675, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00694.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Seo, Y.-W., H. Kim, K.-S. Yun, J.-Y. Lee, K.-J. Ha, and J.-Y. Moon, 2014: Future change of extreme temperature climate indices over East Asia with uncertainties estimation in the CMIP5. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 609–624, doi:10.1007/s13143-014-0050-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Seth, A., S. A. Rauscher, M. Biasutti, A. Giannini, S. J. Camargo, and M. Rojas, 2013: CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions. J. Climate, 26, 7328–7351, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, I.-S. Kang, A. Kitoh, A. Moise, A. Turner, B. Wang, and T. Zhou, 2013: The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Climate Dyn., 41, 2711–2744, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Stephenson, D. B., 2000: Use of the “odds ration” for diagnosing forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 221–232, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000) 015<0221:UOTORF>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Stine, A. R., P. Huybers, and I. Y. Fung, 2009: Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Nature, 457, 435–440, doi:10.1038/nature07675.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Tao, S., and L. Chen, 1987: A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology. Chang, C.-P. et al. Eds., Oxford University Press, 60–92.Google Scholar
  29. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Wang, B., and Lin Ho, 2002: Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon. J. Climate, 15, 386–398, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 015<0386:RSOTAP>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wang, B., Lin Ho, Y. Zhang, and M.-M. Lu, 2004: Definition of South China Sea monsoon onset and commencement of the East Asia summer monsoon. J. Climate, 17, 699–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Wang, B., and Q. Ding, 2008: Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 44, 165–183, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Wang, B., Z. Wu, J. Li, J. Liu, C.-P. Chang, Y. Ding, and G. Wu, 2008: How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 4449–4463, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2183.1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877–926, doi: 10.1002/qj.49711850705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. T. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects of prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451–14510, doi: 10.1029/97JC02719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Wu, G., and Y. Zhang, 1998: Tibetan Plateau forcing and the timing of the monsoon onset over South Asia and the South China Sea. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 913–927, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0913:TPFATT>2.0.CO;2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Yihui, D., and J. C. L. Chan, 2005: The East Asian summer monsoon: An overview. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117–142, doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Yun, K.-S., S.-H. Shin, K.-J. Ha, A. Kitoh, and S. Kusunoki, 2008: East Asian precipitation change in the global warming climate simulated by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 233–247.Google Scholar
  39. Zhang, L., T. Zhou, B. Wu, and Q. Bao, 2010: The annual modes of tropical precipitation simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled oceanatmosphere model FGOALS_s1.1. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 24, 189–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of Climate SystemPusan National UniversityBusanKorea
  2. 2.Division of Earth Environmental SystemPusan National UniversityBusanKorea
  3. 3.Research Center for Climate SciencesPusan National UniversityBusanKorea

Personalised recommendations