Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 51, Issue 1, pp 49–60 | Cite as

Intra-winter atmospheric circulation changes over East Asia and North Pacific associated with ENSO in a seasonal prediction model

  • Sunyong Kim
  • Hyeong-Seog Kim
  • Seung-Ki Min
  • Hye-Young Son
  • Duk-Jin Won
  • Hyun-Sook Jung
  • Jong-Seong Kug
Article

Abstract

Though tropical SST anomalies associated with El Niño change slowly during the mature phase of El Niño, the resultant extratropical teleconnection patterns are quite different with time. In this study, the intra-winter changes in the teleconnection pattern associated with El Niño are investigated using the NCEP reanalysis and observational data and the high-resolution seasonal prediction data. The observational analyses show that there are distinctively changes in the teleconnection pattern over the North Pacific within the winter. In the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years, there is a distinctive anomalous Kuroshio anticyclone, which is closely related to the East Asian climate. In January, in contrast, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears and a strong cyclonic flow, which is part of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, develops. It is suggested that the intra-winter changes are controlled by the relative roles of the equatorial central Pacific (CP) and western north Pacific (WNP) precipitation anomalies on the extratropical teleconnection over the North Pacific. On the other hand, the prediction data failed to capture the observed intra-winter changes in the teleconnection pattern, though the predictive skills for tropical SST and precipitation are high. It is revealed that this model’s discrepancy in the extratropical teleconnection is partly originated from the failure in predicting the relative magnitude of CP and WNP precipitation anomalies. Further analyses on the ensemble spread of the prediction data support the relative roles of CP and WNP precipitation anomalies in affecting the extratropical circulation over the North Pacific.

Keywords

ENSO East Asian climate CP and WNP precipitation teleconnection GloSea5 

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Copyright information

© Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sunyong Kim
    • 1
  • Hyeong-Seog Kim
    • 1
  • Seung-Ki Min
    • 2
  • Hye-Young Son
    • 2
  • Duk-Jin Won
    • 3
  • Hyun-Sook Jung
    • 3
  • Jong-Seong Kug
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Convergence Study on the Ocean Science and TechnologyOcean Science and Technology SchoolBusanKorea
  2. 2.School of Environmental Science and EngineeringPohang University of Science and TechnologyPohang, GyeongbukKorea
  3. 3.Korea Meteorological AdministrationSeoulKorea
  4. 4.School of Environmental Science and EngineeringPohang University of Science and TechnologyPohang, GyeongbukKorea

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