Research on optimization of hedging ratio of thermal coal futures in thermal power enterprises based on Delphi method
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The enthusiasm of coal-fired thermal power enterprises to participate in coal futures hedging to avoid the risk of coal price fluctuations is increasing. The key to hedge operation is to determine the total coal inventory required by the power generation company according to the amount of electricity generated. Participating in the hedging of coal futures not only plays a role in avoiding the risk of price fluctuation, but also reduces the occupation of funds and improves the utilization ratio of enterprises’ funds. When the total stock of the power generation enterprise has been determined, the optimal ratio of coal futures hedging is calculated scientifically, and then the virtual stock position of coal is calculated, and the actual stock and virtual stock of the coal are reasonably determined. This paper constructs the optimization model of coal hedging ratio of coal-fired thermal power generation enterprises, and innovatively puts forward the Delphi method to determine the three coefficients in the hedging ratio model based on the practical experience.
KeywordsThermal coal futures Hedging ratio Model optimization Delphi method
This paper is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (no. 2018ZD14) and the 2017 Special Project of Cultivation and Development of Innovation Base (no. Z171100002217024). The authors are thankful to all experts who participated in the consultation process for their valuable inputs.
YW and LL built the hedging ratio model; JZ and LL established the framework of Delphi method to determine coefficients of coal hedging ratio models, JZ and LL collected the relative data and calculated the result; CW and CX corrected the paper; Finally, JZ wrote the paper and formatted the manuscript for submission.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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