Energy Systems

, Volume 2, Issue 3–4, pp 281–298

Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

  • Alexander Cotte Poveda
  • Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
Open Access
Original Paper

Abstract

This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase economic growth. Moreover, the improvements in energy efficiency have contributed to increase economic growth from an approach of sustainable development. These results are important for the adequate design, formulation and application of policies and strategies that encourage a better energy use to improve economic growth and decrease poverty, especially in developing countries.

Keywords

Economic development Economic growth Energy Poverty 

References

  1. 1.
    Adams, R.: Economic growth, inequality, and poverty: estimating the growth elasticity of poverty. World Dev. 32, 1989–2014 (2004) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Ayres, R.: Sustainability economics: where do we stand? Ecol. Econ. 67, 281–310 (2008) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Ayres, R.: Energy intensity, efficiency and economics. Lecture for IMF Research Department (2010). http://cedm.epp.cmu.edu/files/slides/Ayres.pdf
  4. 4.
    Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z., Arslanturk, Y.: Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Econ. 32, 1398–1410 (2010) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Bartlett, M.S.: An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Special Reference to Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1955) MATHGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Bourguignon, F.: The growth elasticity of poverty reduction: explaining heterogeneity across countries and time periods. In: Eichner, T., Turnovsky, S. (eds.) Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications. MIT Press, Cambridge (2003) Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Box, G., Pierce, D.: Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 65, 1509–1526 (1970) MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Brook, P., Besant-Jones, J.: Reaching the poor in the age of energy reform. In: Energy Services for the World Poor, Energy and Development Report 2000 (ESMAP). World Bank, Washington (2000) Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Cardenas, M.: Economic growth in Colombia: a reversal of ‘fortune’? Ens. Polit. Econ. 25, 220–259 (2007). Edición Especial Productividad Y Crecimiento Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Castillo, M.: Energy, capital and technological change in Colombia: a comparative analysis with the United States. J. Univ. Los Andes, 67–72 (1997) Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Chumacero, R., Fuentes, R.: Economic growth in Latin America: structural breaks or fundamentals? Estud. Econ. 33, 141–154 (2006) Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Cotte, A.: Estimating effectiveness of the control of violence and socioeconomic development in Colombia: an application of dynamic data envelopment analysis and data panel approach. Social Indicators Research 103(2), 10–34 (2011) Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Cotte, A.: Economic development and growth in Colombia: an empirical analysis with super-efficiency DEA and panel data models. Socio-Econ. Plan. Sci. (2011). doi:10.1016/j.seps.2011.07.003 Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Cotte, A., Cotrino, J.: Economic growth and income distribution in Colombia. As affected by human capital and the level of education. Cuad. Adm. 19, 337–356 (2006) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Cotte, A., Pardo, C.I.: Poverty and Inequality trends: evidence from Colombian departments. Ens. Rev. Econ. 31 (2011, in press) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Dickey, D., Fuller, W.: Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74, 427–431 (1979) MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Electricity Interconnection (ISA): Analysis of GDP and energy demand in Colombia in moments of economic crisis (2009). Report 06 (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J.: Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55, 251–276 (1987) MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    European Parliament and European Council on energy end use efficiency and energy services. Directive 2006/32/EC. Off. J. Eur. Union (2006) Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    European Environment Agency (EEA): Indicators and fact sheets about Europe’s environment. EN17 Total Energy Intensity (2006). http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/en17-total-energy-intensity
  21. 21.
    Fleay, B.: Energy quality and economic effectiveness (2005). http://www.aspo-australia.org.au
  22. 22.
    Fuller, W.: Introduction to Statistical Time Series. Wiley, New York (1976) MATHGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Gomez, W., Torres, A.: Distribution, economic growth and poverty in Colombia: recently discussion and some perspectives to medium run. Perf. Coyunt. Econ. 7, 25–44 (2006) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Granger, C.W.J.: Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica 37, 424–438 (1969) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Granger, C.W.J.: Some recent developments in a concept of causality. J. Econom. 39, 199–211 (1988) MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., Rodrik, D.: What you export matters. NBER Working Paper 11905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA (2006) Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Hausmann, R., Klinger, B.: Achieving export-led growth in Colombia. Mimeo (2007) Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    Iceland, J.: A Handbook Poverty in America, 2nd edn. University of California, Los Angeles (2005) Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    International Energy Agency (IEA): Energy Statistics Manual (2005). http://www.iea.org/stats/docs/statistics_manual.pdf
  30. 30.
    Johansen, S.: Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 12, 231–254 (1988) MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Johansen, S., Juselius, K.: Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with application to the demand for money. Oxf. Bull. Econ.Stat. 52, 169–210 (1990) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Klasen, S.: In search of the holy grail: how to achieve pro-poor growth? In: Tungodden, B., Stern, N., Kolstad, I. (eds.) Toward Pro-Poor Policies: Aid, Institutions, Globalization, pp. 63–93. Oxford University Press, New York (2004) Google Scholar
  33. 33.
    Konya, L.: Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Econ. Model. 23, 978–992 (2006) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Kummel, R., Strassl, W., Gossner, A., Eichhorn, W.: Technical progress and energy dependent production functions. J. Econ. 45, 285–311 (1985) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Kummel, R., Henn, J., Lindenberger, D.: Capital, labor, energy and creativity: modeling innovation diffusion. Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 13, 415–433 (2002) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Lee, C.: Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: a co-integrated panel analysis. Energy Econ. 27, 415–427 (2005) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Lee, C.: The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited. Energy Policy 34, 1086–1093 (2006) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Lindenberger, D., Kummel, R.: Energy-dependent production functions and the optimization model “PRISE” of price-induced sectoral volution. Int. J. Appl. Thermodyn. 5, 101–107 (2002) Google Scholar
  39. 39.
    Ljung, G., Box, G.: On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika 65, 297–303 (1978) MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Loayza, N., Fajnzylber, P., Calderon, C.: Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. Stylized Facts, Explanations and Forecasts. The World Bank, Washington (2005) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Lopez, J.: Pro-poor pro-growth: is there a trade-on? Policy Research Working Paper 3378, World Bank (2004) Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    Manlove, K.: Energy poverty 101. Center for American Progress (2009). www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/05/energy_poverty101.html
  43. 43.
    Melendez, M., Harker, A.: Revisiting Economic Growth in Colombia—A Microeconomic Perspective. Inter-American Development Bank and Fedesarrollo, IDB Project: Competitiveness and Growth in Latin America (2008) Google Scholar
  44. 44.
    Mencet, N., Firat, Z., Sayin, C.: Cointegration analysis of wine export prices for France, Greece and Turkey. Paper prepared for presentation at the 98 th EAAE Seminar ‘Marketing Dynamics within the Global Trading System: New Perspectives’ (2006) Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    Moroney, J.: Energy, capital and technological change in the United States. Resour. Energy 14, 363–380 (1991) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. 46.
    Najam, A., Cleveland, C.: Energy and sustainable development at global environmental summits: an evolving agenda. Environ. Dev. Sustain. 5, 117–138 (2003) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. 47.
    Narayan, P., Smyth, R.: Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries. Energy Policy 37, 229–236 (2009) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. 48.
    Newton, H: TIMESLAB: A Time Series Analysis Laboratory, Wadsworth, Inc. (1988) Google Scholar
  49. 49.
    Ozturk, I., Aslan, A., Kalyoncu, H.: Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries. Energy Policy 38, 4422–4428 (2010) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. 50.
    Pardo, C.I., Cotte, A.: Energy efficiency in the Colombian manufacturing industries: estimation with data envelopment analysis (DEA) and panel data. Econ. Gest. Desarro. 11, 39–58 (2011) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  51. 51.
    Pardo Martínez, C.I.: Energy efficiency developments in the manufacturing industries of Germany and Colombia, 1998–2005. Energy Sustain. Dev. 13, 189–201 (2009) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. 52.
    Pardo Martínez, C.I.: Energy efficiency development in German and Colombian non-energy-intensive sectors: a non-parametric analysis. Energy Effic. (2010). doi:10.1007/s12053-010-9078-2
  53. 53.
    Paul, S., Bhattacharya, R.: Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results. Energy Econ. 26, 977–983 (2008) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. 54.
    Perman, R.: Co-integration: an introduction to the literature. J. Econ. Stud. 18, 3–30 (1991) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. 55.
    Phillips, P., Perron, P.: Testing for unit roots in time series regression. Biometrika 75, 335–346 (1988) MathSciNetMATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Ravallion, M.: Can high inequality development countries escape absolute poverty? Econ. Lett. 56, 51–57 (1997) MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. 57.
    Ravallion, M.: Pro-poor growth: a primer. Policy Research Working Paper 3242, World Bank (2004) Google Scholar
  58. 58.
    Saunders, P., Biswas, B., Mohapatra, S.: A cointegration analysis of the impact of real exchange rate variations on US agricultural exports. Agric. Financ. Rev. 59, 19–30 (1999) Google Scholar
  59. 59.
    Stern, D., Cleveland, C.: Energy and economic Growth. Working Papers in Economics, Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Number 0410 (2004) Google Scholar
  60. 60.
    Stresing, R., Lindenberger, D., Kummel, R.: Cointegration of output, capital, labor, and energy. Eur. Phys. J. B 66, 279–287 (2008) MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. 61.
    United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO): Policies for promoting industrial energy efficiency in developing countries and transition economies. Commission for Sustainable Development (CSD-15) (2007) Google Scholar
  62. 62.
    Unit of Mines and Energy Planning (UPME): Petroleum Chain in Colombia (2007) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  63. 63.
    Unit of Mines and Energy Planning (UPME): National Energy Plan 2006–2025. Context and Strategies (2007). http://www.upme.gov.co/English/Docs/
  64. 64.
    Unit of Mines and Energy Planning (UPME): Ministry of Mines and Energy, National Energy Balances 1975–2006 (2007) (in Spanish) Google Scholar
  65. 65.
    U.S. Chamber of Commerce Institute for 21st Century Energy (USCCCE): Aggressively promote energy efficiency (2010). http://www.energyxxi.org/issues/Improve_Energy_Efficiency.aspx
  66. 66.
    U.S. Department of Energy (USDE): Energy efficiency and renewable energy planning, budget, and analysis—energy intensity indicators (2010). http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/intensityindicators/efficiency_intensity.html
  67. 67.
    World Bank: Energy poverty issues and G8 actions. Discussion Paper (2006). http://194.84.38.65/files/eswfiles/energypoverty
  68. 68.
    Yuan, C., Liu, S., Wu, J.: Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb–Douglas production function. Energy Policy 37, 2842–2846 (2009) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. 69.
    Zestos, G., Tao, X.: Trade and GDP growth: causal relations in the United States and Canada. South. Econ. J. 68, 859–874 (2002) CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alexander Cotte Poveda
    • 1
    • 2
  • Clara Inés Pardo Martínez
    • 3
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of GöttingenGöttingenGermany
  2. 2.Faculty of Accounting and AdministrationUniversity of La SalleBogotáColombia
  3. 3.Energy and Climate Studies, Department of Energy TechnologyRoyal Institute of Technology, KTHStockholmSweden
  4. 4.Faculty of EngineeringUniversity of La SalleBogotáColombia

Personalised recommendations