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Projected changes in climate and hydrological regimes of the Western Siberian lowlands

  • Rajesh SadaEmail author
  • Britta Schmalz
  • Jens Kiesel
  • Nicola Fohrer
Thematic Issue
  • 85 Downloads
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Climate Effects on Water Resources

Abstract

In this study, we analyse possible future climatic changes in three catchments, namely, Pyshma, Vagai and Loktinka located in the Western Siberian lowland region, and the resulting impact on hydrological regimes. It involved downscaling the GCM outputs based on the established statistical relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and station data and simulating the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes via hydrological modelling. This was done for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 based on second-generation Canadian Earth System Model used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. This paper provides the first climate change projections on a local scale in these catchments. The statistical downscaling showed that there will be an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at all stations under all scenarios. The mean annual daily precipitation increased in Loktinka and Pyshma basins under all scenarios, but there was no clear trend in Vagai basin. The possible increase in annual precipitation is mostly due to the projected increase in autumn and winter precipitation. Annual streamflow tends to increase in all catchments under all scenarios.

Keywords

Temperature change Precipitation change Statistical downscaling Hydrological modelling Western Siberia 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was conducted as part of project SASCHA (Sustainable land management and adaptation strategies to climate change for the Western Siberian grain belt). We are grateful for funding by the German Government, Federal Ministry of Education and Research within their Sustainable Land Management funding framework (funding reference 01LL0906C). JK acknowledges funding through the “GLANCE” project (Global change effects on river ecosystems; 01LN1320A) supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Further thanks go to our Russian partners of Tyumen State University (TSU) and State Agrarian University of the Northern Transurals (GAUSZ) for a great and successful cooperation. We would also like to thank Dr. D.T. Degefie, Dr. Laurent Terray and Ms. Milka Radojevic for their guidance in statistical downscaling and Dr. Matthias Pfannerstill for valuable discussions and support regarding SWAT-3S.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Hydrology and Water Resources ManagementUniversity of KielKielGermany
  2. 2.Freshwater ProgramWWF NepalKathmanduNepal
  3. 3.Chair of Engineering Hydrology and Water ManagementTU DarmstadtDarmstadtGermany
  4. 4.Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland FisheriesBerlinGermany

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