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Projected changes in climate and hydrological regimes of the Western Siberian lowlands

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In this study, we analyse possible future climatic changes in three catchments, namely, Pyshma, Vagai and Loktinka located in the Western Siberian lowland region, and the resulting impact on hydrological regimes. It involved downscaling the GCM outputs based on the established statistical relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and station data and simulating the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes via hydrological modelling. This was done for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 based on second-generation Canadian Earth System Model used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. This paper provides the first climate change projections on a local scale in these catchments. The statistical downscaling showed that there will be an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at all stations under all scenarios. The mean annual daily precipitation increased in Loktinka and Pyshma basins under all scenarios, but there was no clear trend in Vagai basin. The possible increase in annual precipitation is mostly due to the projected increase in autumn and winter precipitation. Annual streamflow tends to increase in all catchments under all scenarios.

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This work was conducted as part of project SASCHA (Sustainable land management and adaptation strategies to climate change for the Western Siberian grain belt). We are grateful for funding by the German Government, Federal Ministry of Education and Research within their Sustainable Land Management funding framework (funding reference 01LL0906C). JK acknowledges funding through the “GLANCE” project (Global change effects on river ecosystems; 01LN1320A) supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Further thanks go to our Russian partners of Tyumen State University (TSU) and State Agrarian University of the Northern Transurals (GAUSZ) for a great and successful cooperation. We would also like to thank Dr. D.T. Degefie, Dr. Laurent Terray and Ms. Milka Radojevic for their guidance in statistical downscaling and Dr. Matthias Pfannerstill for valuable discussions and support regarding SWAT-3S.

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Correspondence to Rajesh Sada.

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This article is a part of a Topical Collection in Environmental Earth Sciences on Climate Effects on Water Resources, edited by Drs. Zongzhi Wang and Yanqing Lian.

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Sada, R., Schmalz, B., Kiesel, J. et al. Projected changes in climate and hydrological regimes of the Western Siberian lowlands. Environ Earth Sci 78, 56 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0

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  • Temperature change
  • Precipitation change
  • Statistical downscaling
  • Hydrological modelling
  • Western Siberia