Advertisement

Environmental Earth Sciences

, 75:1387 | Cite as

The impacts of drying of Lake Urmia on changes of degree day index of the surrounding cities by meteorological modelling

  • Gholamreza Roshan
  • Jafar Masoompour Samakosh
  • José A. Orosa
Original Article

Abstract

The Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran and the second largest saline lake in the world, is currently faced with the threat of drying up. In the last two years, it experienced an increase in its water level, leading researchers to compare different situations. In this study, using The Air Pollution Modelling software, two scenarios, one of the lake being full of water and another of the dry lake, were projected in order to simulate changes in energy demand for four cities located in the neighbourhood of the lake. The main results, based on a dry lake scenario, showed a decrease in weather temperature during the cold season and an increase during the hot season, particularly in the day time, in respect of a full level of water in the lake. Because of this, there was an increase in energy demand for cooling degree day (CDD) for daily hours of the hot months and for heating degree day (HDD) demand in the night hours of the cold months. In particular, the overall average annual increase for HDD and CDD in the entire studied area will increase to 140.56° and 105.90° by day, respectively. At the same time, a significant variation of relative humidity in contraposition to temperature will occur; therefore, the thermal comfort conditions of the studied cities are expected to be worse. Finally, future research works must be done to predict the expected energy consumption in the next decades in accordance with the procedure developed.

Keywords

Climate simulation models Mesoclimatic models Global warming Degree day TAPM Lake Urmia 

References

  1. Abbaspour M, Javid AH, Mirbagheri SA, Ahmadi Givi F, Moghimi P (2012) Investigation of lake drying attributed to climate change. Int J Environ Sci Technol 9:257–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Al-Hadhrami LM (2013) Comprehensive review of cooling and heating degree days characteristics over Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Renew Sust Energy Rev 27:305–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Alipour S (2006) Hydrochemistry of seasonal variation of Urmia Salt Lake Iran. Saline Syst 2:9. doi: 10.1186/1746-1448-2-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Assouline S, Mahrer Y (1995) Spatial and temporal variability in microclimate and evaporation over Lake Kinneret: experimental evaluation. J Appl Meteorol 35:1076–1084CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Avissar R, Pan H (2000) Simulation of the summer hydrometeorological processes of Lake Kinneret. J Hydrometeorol 1:95–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Azizi Gh, Masumpour J, Khoshakhlagh F, Ranjbar A, Zawar-Reza P (2010) Numerical simulation of sea breezes in southern Caspian Sea with using of climatic parameters. J Phys Geogr 7(26):121–140Google Scholar
  7. Bates GT, Giorgi F, Hostetler SW (1993) Toward the simulation of the effects of the Great Lakes on regional climate. Mon Weather Rev 121:1373–1387CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bitan A (1974) The wind regime in the North-West section of the Dead Sea. Arch Meteorol Geophys Biokl Ser B 22:313–335CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bonan GB (1995) Sensitivity of a GCM simulation to inclusion of inland water surfaces. J Clim 8:2691–2704CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Changnon SA, Jones DMA (1972) Review of the influences of the Great Lakes on weather. Water Resour Res 8:360–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Darmenova K, Sokolik IN (2006) Assessing uncertainties in dust emission in the Aral Sea region caused by meteorological fields predicted with a mesoscale model. Glob Planet Change 56:297–310CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Eichenlaub VL (1979) Weather and climate of the Great Lakes region. The University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dame, p 335Google Scholar
  13. Esmaeili Dahesht L, Negarestan H, Eimanifar A, Mohebbi F, Ahmadi R (2010) The fluctuations of physicochemical factors and phytoplankton, populations of Urmia Lake, Iran. Iran J Fish Sci 9(3):368–381Google Scholar
  14. Feizizadeh B, Blaschke T, Nazmfar H, Rezaei Moghaddam MH (2013) Landslide susceptibility mapping for the Urmia Lake basin, Iran: a multi-criteria evaluation approach using GIS. Int J Environ Res 7(2):319–336Google Scholar
  15. Feldhoff JH, Lange S, Volkholz J, Donges JF, Kurths J, Gerstengarbe FW (2015) Complex networks for climate model evaluation with application to statistical versus dynamical modeling of South American climate. Clim Dyn 44:1567–1581CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ghaheri M, Baghal-Vayjooee MH, Naziri J (1999) Lake Urmia, Iran: a summary review, vol 8. International Journal of Salt Lake Research Kluwer Academic publisher, Netherlands, pp 19–22Google Scholar
  17. Ghanghermeh A, Roshan GR, Al-Yahyai S (2015) The influence of Atlantic-Eurasian teleconnection patterns on temperature regimes in South Caspian Sea coastal areas: a study of Golestan Province. North Iran Pollut 1(1):67–83Google Scholar
  18. Hayden KL, Sills DML, Brook JR, Li SM, Makar PA, Markovic MZ, Liu P, Anlauf KG, O’Brien JM, Li Q, McLaren R (2011) Aircraft study of the impact of lake breeze circulations on trace gases and particles during BAQSMet2007. Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 11:11497–11546CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hostetler SW, Bates GT, Giorgi F (1993) Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model. J Geophys Res 98:5045–5057CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Hurley P (2008) The air pollution model (TAPM) Version 4. User manual, CSIRO Atmospheric Research Internal paper 31Google Scholar
  21. Jugnclaus JH, Botzet M, Haak H, Keenlyside N, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewics U, Roeckner E (2005) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the AOGCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19:3952Google Scholar
  22. Kaplan DM, Largier JL, Navarrete S, Guinez R, Castilla JC (2003) Large diurnal temperature fluctuations in the nearshore water column. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 57:385–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kardan R, Azizi Gh, Zawar-Reza P, Mohammadi H (2009) Modeling the influence of water body in surrounding areas (case study: climatic modeling of Jazmoorian Watershed by creation of assumptive lake). Iran-Watershed Manag Sci Eng 3(7):15–22 (in Persian)Google Scholar
  24. Kelts K, Shahrabi M (1986) Holocene sedimentalogy of hypersaline Lake Urmia, Northwestern Iran. Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol 54:105–130CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Khatami S (2013) Nonlinear chaotic and trend analyses of water level at Urmia Lake, Iran. M.Sc. Thesis report: TVVR-13/5012, ISSN: 1101-9824, Lund University, Lund, SwedenGoogle Scholar
  26. Levy I, Makar PA, Sills D, Zhang J, Hayden KL, Mihele C, Narayan J, Moran MD, Sjostedt S, Brook J (2010) Unraveling the complex local-scale flows influencing ozone patterns in the southern Great Lakes of North America. Atmos Chem Phys 10:10895–10915CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lofgren BM (1997) Simulated effects of idealized Laurentian Great Lakes on regional and large-scale climate. J Clim 10:2847–2858CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Long Z, Perrie W, Gyakum J, Caya D, Laprise R (2007) Northern lake impacts on local seasonal climate. J Hydrometeorol 8:881–896CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Luhar AK, Hurley PJ (2004) Application of a prognostic model TAPM to sea-breeze flows, surface concentrations, and fumigating plumes. Environ Model Softw 19(6):591–601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Mahmoei HB, Darvish M, Fathollahzadeh H, Mosayebi M (2012) Lake Urmia water level variability, weather and climate change. Proceedings of National Conference on Climate Changes and Its Environmental—Agricultural Impacts, Urmia 727–734Google Scholar
  31. Makar PA, Zhang J, Gong W, Stroud C, Sills D, Hayden KL, Brook J, Levy I, Mihele C, Moran MD, Tarasick DW, He H, Plummer D (2010) Mass tracking for chemical analysis: the causes of ozone formation in southern Ontario during BAQS-Met 2007. Atmos Chem Phys 10:11151–11173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. McGowan HA, Owens IF, Sturman AP (1995) Thermal and dynamic characteristics of alpine lake breezes, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand. Bound Layer Meteorol 76:3–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Mohammadi J, Zarabi A, Mobaraki O (2012) Urban sprawl pattern and effective factors on them: the case of Urmia city, Iran. J Urban Reg Anal 1:77–89Google Scholar
  34. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Pozzer A, Jöckel P, Kern B, Haak H (2011) The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model EMAC-MPIOM. Geosci Model Dev 4:771–784CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Razmara P, Massah Bavani AR, Motiee H, Torabi S, Lotfi S (2013) Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 10:2183–2214CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Roshan GhR, Orosa JA, Nasrabadi T (2012) Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings, case study of Iran. Energy Policy 49:731–739CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Roshan Gh, Ghanghermeh A, Orosa JA (2013) Thermal comfort and forecast of energy consumption in Northwest Iran. Arab J Geosci. doi: 10.1007/s12517-013-0973-7 Google Scholar
  39. Roshan GhR, Ghanghermeh A, Attia S (2017) Determining new threshold temperatures for cooling and heating degree day index of different climatic zones of Iran. Renew Energy 101:156–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Russell GL, Miller JR, Rind D (1995) A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmos Ocean 33(4):683–730CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Salathé PJ, Mote PW, Wiley MW (2007) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest. Int J Climatol 27:1611–1621CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Schmidt GA (2005) Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: comparison to in situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J Clim 19:153–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Sills DML, Brook JR, Levy I, Makar PA, Zhang J, Taylor PA (2011) Lake breezes in the southern Great Lakes region and their influence during BAQS-Met 2007. Atmos Chem Phys 11:7955–7973CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Shamsipour A, Raesei R, Zare S, Mohammadei A (2012) Simulation of the effect of water body of hamun in surrounding areas (case study: Zabol). J Environ Sci Eng 45:111–117 (in Persian) Google Scholar
  45. Small EE, Sloan LC (1999) Simulating the water balance of the Aral Sea with a coupled regional climate-lake model. J Geophy Res 104:6583–6602CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Tabari MR, Ghalehni ME (2012) Evaluation of Urmia Lake’s water-need during the recent droughts. Proceedings of 9th International Congress of Civil Engineering, Isfahan Technology University 1025–1032Google Scholar
  47. Theeuwes NE, Solcerová A, Steeneveld GJ (2013) Modeling the influence of open water surfaces on the summertime temperature and thermal comfort in the city. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(16):8881–8896. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50704 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Tisseuil C, Roshan Gh, Nasrabadi T, Asadpour GA (2012) Statistical modeling of future lake level under climatic conditions, case study of Urmia Lake (Iran). Int J Environ Res 7(1):69–80Google Scholar
  49. Tomassetti B, Giorgi F, Verdecchia M, Visconti G (2003) Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. Ann Geophys 21:2219–2232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Van Stappen G, Fayazi G, Sorgeloos P (2001) International study on Artemia LXIII. Field study of the Artemia urmiana (Günther, 1980) population in Lake Urmiah Iran. Hydrobiologia 466:133–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zarghami M, Abdi A, Babaeian I, Hassanzadeh Y, Kanani R (2011) Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Glob Planet Change 78(3–4):137–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Zawar-Reza P, Kingham S, Pearce J (2005) Evaluation of a year-long dispersion modeling of PM10 using the mesoscale model TAPM for Christchurch, New Zealand. Sci Total Environ 349:249–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Zawar-Reza P, Titov1 M, Azizi G, Bidokhti A, Soltanzadeh I (2007) Long term simulation of mesoscale floe and air pollution dispersion over Tehran, part 1: low-level flow features. Conference on urban air quality 7–10Google Scholar
  54. Zoljoodi M, Didevarasl A (2014) Water-level fluctuations of Urmia Lake: relationship with the long-term changes of meteorological variables (solutions for water-crisis management in Urmia Lake Basin). Atmos Clim Sci 4:358–368Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gholamreza Roshan
    • 1
  • Jafar Masoompour Samakosh
    • 2
  • José A. Orosa
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of GeographyGolestan UniversityGorganIran
  2. 2.Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanity SciencesRazi UniversityKermanshahIran
  3. 3.Department of Energy and M. PUniversity of A CoruñaA CoruñaSpain

Personalised recommendations