Risk hotspots for terrestrial plant invaders under climate change at the global scale
Terrestrial plant invaders (TPIs) have a large potential to threaten plant diversity under climate change. To prevent the spread of TPIs under climate change, we must identify the risk hotspots for TPIs. However, the risk hotspots for TPIs have not yet been explicitly addressed at the global scale under climate change. Here, we selected 336 TPIs from the Invasive Species Specialist Group list and used species distribution modelling and Hot Spot Analysis to map the risk hotspots of TPIs based on the terrestrial ecoregions in the current, low and high gas concentration scenarios. The risk hotspots of TPIs were mainly distributed in South America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and northern and southern Africa. Climate change may decrease the areas of hotspots that allow for TPI expansion, but the potential distribution probabilities of TPIs may increase in the high concentration scenario. Furthermore, TPIs, particularly herbaceous and woody ones, might still expand into critical or endangered ecoregions of these risk hotspots in the current, low and high concentration scenarios. We also need to focus on the impact of TPI expansion on both vulnerable and relatively stable ecoregions due to the increasing potential distribution probabilities of TPIs in risk hotspots and should integrate climate change into the risk assessment of plant invasion in the vulnerable and relatively stable ecoregions.
KeywordsPlant invasion Climatic change GIS Risk hotpot Maxent modelling Ecoregion Hot Spot Analysis
We thank the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (BLYJ201501; TD-JC-2013-1) and NSFC (31570413) for support.
- Foxcroft LC, Jarošík V, Pyšek P, Richardson DM, Rouget M (2011) Protected-area boundaries as filters of plant invasions. Conserv Biol 25:400–405Google Scholar
- García-Roselló E, Guisande C, Manjarrés-Hernández A, González-Dacosta J, Heine J, Pelayo-Villamil P, González-Vilas L, Vari RP, Vaamonde A, Granado-Lorencio C, Lobo JM (2014) Can we derive macroecological patterns from primary global biodiversity information facility data? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 24:335–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Olson DM, Dinerstein E, Wikramanayake D, Burgess D, Powell G, Underwood E, Damico J, Itoua I, Strand H, Morrison J, Loucks C, Allnutt T, Ricketts T, Kura Y, Lamoreux J, Wettengel W, Hedao P, Kassem K (2001) Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on earth a new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity. Bioscience 51:933–938CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Vicente JR, Fernandes RF, Randin CF, Broennimann O, Gonçalves J, Marcos B, Pôcas I, Alves P, Guisan A, Honrado JP (2013) Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions. J Environ Manag 131:185–195CrossRefGoogle Scholar