Advertisement

Environmental Earth Sciences

, Volume 71, Issue 9, pp 3879–3892 | Cite as

Topo-stress based probabilistic model for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

  • Ranjan Kumar DahalEmail author
  • Netra Prakash Bhandary
  • Shuichi Hasegawa
  • Ryuichi Yatabe
Original Article

Abstract

While dealing with slope stability issues, determining the state of stress and the relation between driving force and resisting force are the fundamental deterministic steps. Gravitational stresses affect geologic processes and engineering operations in slopes. Considering this fact, a concept of topo-stress evaluation is developed in this research and used to produce a shallow landslide susceptibility map in a model area. The topo-stress introduced in this research refers to the shear stress induced by the gravitational forces on the planes parallel to the ground surface. Weight of the material on a slope and friction angle of the jointed rock mass are the two fundamental parameters that are considered to govern topo-stress in this study. Considering topo-stress as a main factor for initiating shallow landslides, a GIS-based probabilistic model is developed for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation. An ideal terrain in central Nepal is selected as the study area for this purpose. Two event-based shallow landslide inventories are used to predict accuracy of the model, which is found to be more than 78 % for the first event-landslides and more than 76 % for the second event-landslides. It is evident from these prediction rates that the probabilistic topo-stress model proposed in this work is quite acceptable when regional scale shallow landslide susceptibility mapping is practiced, such as in the Himalayan rocky slopes.

Keywords

Topo-stress Probabilistic model Shallow landslide suceptibility Nepal Himalaya 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The study was funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). The authors wish to thank Dr. Manita Timilsina and Mr. Anjan Kumar Dahal for their technical supports.

References

  1. Akgun A, Turk N (2010) Landslide susceptibility mapping for Ayvalik (Western Turkey) and its vicinity by multicriteria decision analysis. Environ Earth Sci 61:595–611CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Amadei B, Swolfs HS, Savage WZ (1988) Gravity-induced stresses in stratified rock masses. Rock Mech Rock Eng 21:1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bieniawski ZT (1973) Engineering classification of jointed rock masses. Trans South Afr Inst Civil Eng 15(12):335–344Google Scholar
  4. Borgia A (1994) Dynamic basis of volcanic spreading. J Geophys Res 99:17791–17804CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chung C-JF, Fabbri AG (1999) Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Photogram Eng Remot Sens 65:1389–1399Google Scholar
  6. Dahal RK (2006) Geology for technical students—a textbook for bachelor level students. Bhrikuti Academic Publication, NepalGoogle Scholar
  7. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100(3–4):429–443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Masuda T, Yamanaka M (2006) Roadside slope failures in Nepal during torrential rainfall and their mitigation. In: Marui H, Marutani T, Watanabe N, Kawabe H, Gonda Y, Kimura M, Ochiai H, Ogawa K, Fiebiger G, Heumader J, Rudolf-Miklau F, Kienholz H, Mikos M (eds) Proc Interpraevent Int Symp, Niigata 2006, disaster mitigation of debris flow, slope failures and landslides vol. 2. Universal Academy Press, Tokyo, pp 503–514Google Scholar
  9. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Dhakal S (2008a) DEM-based deterministic landslide hazard analysis in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. Georisk Asses Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohaz 2(3):161–178CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Dhakal S, Paudyal P (2008b) Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence. Geomorphology 102(3–4):496–510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Yamanaka M, Dhakal S, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2009) Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. Environ Geol 58(3):567–586CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2010) Low-cost road for the development of Nepal and its engineering geological consequences. In: Williams et al. (eds) IAEG 2010 Conference, geologically active, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 4085–4095Google Scholar
  13. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S, Bhandary NP, Poudel PP, Nonomura A, Yatabe R (2012) A replication of landslide hazard mapping at catchment scale. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk 3(2):161–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. DFID/Scott Wilson (2003) Landslide risk assessment in the rural access sector, Report on project activities undertaken in Nepal (Nov 2000–March 2003). In: Landslide risk assessment in the rural access sector DoLIDAR/Scott Wilson/DFID, R7815, unpublished, p 170Google Scholar
  15. Dhakal AS, Amada TK, Aniya M (1999) Landslide hazard mapping and application of GIS in the Kulekhani Watershed, Nepal. Mount Res Dev 19(1):3–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Dhital MR, Khanal N, Thapa KB (1993) The role of extreme weather events, mass movements, and land use changes in increasing natural hazards. In: A report of the preliminary field assessment and workshop on causes of recent damage incurred in south-central Nepal. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, p 123Google Scholar
  17. Dieterich JH (1988) Growth and persistence of hawaiian volcanic rift zones. J Geophys Res 93:4258–4270CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Gansser A (1964) Geology of the Himalayas. Wiley Interscience, London, p 289Google Scholar
  19. Hagen T (1969) Report on the geological survey of Nepal preliminary reconnaissance. Zürich Mémoires de la soc. Helvétique des sci. naturelles, p 185Google Scholar
  20. Hammond C, Hall D, Miller S, Swetik P (1992) Level I Stability analysis (LISA), documentation for Version 2.0, Gen Tech Rep INT-285, US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, Ogden, UT, p 190Google Scholar
  21. Harrison JP, FREeng JA (2000) Engineering rock mechanics: part 2, Illustrative worked examples, Pergamon, p 506Google Scholar
  22. Hasegawa S, Dahal RK, Yamanaka M, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R, Inagaki H (2009) Causes of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal. Environ Geol 57(6):1423–1434CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hasegawa S, Dahal RK, Yamanaka M, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R (2010) Rainfall-induced landslides in different climatic environments—a comparison of the Nepal Himalaya and Shikoku, Japan. In: Williams et al. (eds) IAEG 2010 Conference, geologically active, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 241–249Google Scholar
  24. Hoek E (1983) Strength of jointed rock masses, 23rd rankine lecture. Géotechnique 33(3):187–223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hoek R (2012) Shear strength of discontinuities downloaded from the Hoek’s Corner—a leading experts of rock mechanics. http://www.rocscience.com/hoek/corner/. Accessed on 5 May 2012
  26. Hoek E, Bray JW (1991) Rock slope engineering, 3rd edn. Institute of Mineralogy and Metallurgy, London, p 358Google Scholar
  27. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York, p 375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ives JD, Messerli B (1981) Mountain hazards mapping in Nepal; introduction to an applied mountain research project. Mt Res Dev 1:223–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Jaeger C (1979) Rock mechanics and Engineering. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. JICA (1993) Report of Japan Disaster Relief Team (Expert Team) on heavy rainfall and floods in Nepal. In: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), JR1JDC/93-03, p 125 (unpublished)Google Scholar
  31. Jnawali BM, Tuladhar GB (1996) Geological map of parts of Tanahu. Department of Mines and Geology, Gorkha and Nawalparasi districts, NepalGoogle Scholar
  32. Johnson RB, De Graff JV (1988) Principle of engineering geology. Willey, New York, p 497Google Scholar
  33. Kähenbühl J, Wagner A (1983) Survey, design and construction of trail suspension bridge for remote areas, vol. B (survey). In: SKAT, Swiss Centre for Appropriate Technology, Varnbüelstrasse 14, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland, p 325Google Scholar
  34. Kleinbaum DG, Klien M (2010) Logistic regression. A self-learning text. Springer, New York, pp 345–387Google Scholar
  35. Lambe TW, Whiteman RV (1969) Soil Mechanics. Wiley, New York, p 553Google Scholar
  36. Lee S (2004) Application of likelihood ratio and logistic regression models to landslide susceptibility mapping in GIS. Environ Manage 34:223–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Look BG (2007) Handbook of geotechnical investigation and design tables. Taylor and Francis, France, p 331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Martel SJ (2006) Effect of topographic curvature on near-surface stresses and application to sheeting joints. Geophys Res Lett 33:01308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Martel SJ, Muller JR (2000) A two-dimensional boundary element method for calculating elastic gravitational stresses in slopes. Pure Appl Geophys 157:989–1007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Martin CD (1997) Seventeenth Canadian geotechnical colloquium: the effect of cohesion loss and stress path on brittle rock strength. Can Geotech J 34:698–725CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Miller DJ, Dunne T (1996) Topographic perturbations of regional stresses and consequent bedrock fracturing. J Geophys Res 101:25523–25536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Nilsen B (2000) New trends in rock slope stability analyses. Bull Eng Geol Env 58:173–178CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Nilsen B, Thidemann A (1993) Rock engineering, Hydropower development Volume 9. Norwegian Institute of Technology, Division of Hydraulic Engineering, Norwegian, p 156Google Scholar
  44. Petley DN, Hearn GJ, Hart A, Rosser NJ, Dunning SA, Oven K, Mitchell WA (2007) Trends in Landslide Occurrence in Nepal. J Nat Hazard 43:23–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Regmi NR, Giardino JR, Vitek JD, Dangol V (2010) Mapping landslide hazards in western Nepal, comparing qualitative and quantitative approaches. Environ Eng Geosci 16(2):127–142CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Ross SM (2004) Introduction to probability and statistics for engineers and scientists, third edition, Academic press (an imprint of Elsevier). Elsevier, India, p 624Google Scholar
  47. Savage WZ (1994) Gravity-induced stresses in finite slopes. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 31:471–483CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Shea-Albin VR, Dolinar DR, Peters DC (1992) Calculation of vertical stress exerted by topographic features. In: Report of investigations 9409, United States Department of The Interior, p 22Google Scholar
  49. Stöcklin J (1980) Geology of Nepal and its regional frame. J Geol Soc Lond 137:1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Stöcklin J, Bhattarai KD (1978) Geology of Kathmandu area and central Mahabharat range Nepal Himalaya Kathmandu. In: HMG/UNDP Mineral Exploration Project, Technical Report, New York, p 64Google Scholar
  51. Suh J, Choi Y, Roh T-D, Lee H-J, Park H-D (2011) National-scale assessment of landslide susceptibility to rank the vulnerability to failure of rock-cut slopes along expressways in Korea. Environ Earth Sci 63:619–632CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Süzen ML, Doyuran V (2004) A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate. Environ Geol 45:665–679CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Telford WM, Geldart LP, Sheriff RE, Keys DA (1988) Applied geophysics, Oxford and IBH Publishing Co. Pvt. Ltd, pp 24–27Google Scholar
  54. Upreti BN (1999) An overview of the stratigraphy and tectonics of the Nepal Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 17:577–606CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Upreti BN, Dhital MR (1996) Landslide studies and management in Nepal. ICIMOD, Nepal, p 87Google Scholar
  56. van Westen CJ, Terlien MTJ (1996) An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS. A case study from Manizales (Colombia). Earth Surf Proc Landf 21:853–868CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. van Westen CJ, Rengers N, Soeters R (2003) Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment. Nat Hazards 30:399–419CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Ward TJ, Li R-M, Simons DB (1981) Use of a mathematical model for estimating potential landslide sites in steep forested basin, In: Davis TRH, Pearce AJ (eds) Erosion and sediment transport in pacific rim steep lands, International hydrological Science Publ No. 132, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK, pp 21–41Google Scholar
  59. Wyllie DC, Mah CW (2004) Rock slope engineering, civil and mining 4th edn. Spon Press, Taylor and Francis, France, p 431Google Scholar
  60. Yesilnacar E, Topal T (2005) Landslide susceptibility mapping: a comparison of logistic regression and neural networks methods in a medium scale study, Hendek region (Turkey). Eng Geol 79(3–4):251–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ranjan Kumar Dahal
    • 1
    Email author
  • Netra Prakash Bhandary
    • 2
  • Shuichi Hasegawa
    • 3
  • Ryuichi Yatabe
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Geology, Tri-Chandra CampusTribhvuan UniversityKathmanduNepal
  2. 2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Science and EngineeringEhime UniversityMatsuyamaJapan
  3. 3.Department of Safety Systems Construction Engineering, Faculty of EngineeringKagawa UniversityTakamatsu CityJapan

Personalised recommendations