Environmental Earth Sciences

, Volume 61, Issue 2, pp 241–252 | Cite as

Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

  • Júlio Ferreira CarneiroEmail author
  • Mimoun Boughriba
  • António Correia
  • Yassine Zarhloule
  • Abdelkrim Rimi
  • Boubker El Houadi
Original Article


A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.


Coastal aquifer Numerical modelling Climate change Seawater intrusion IPCC scenarios 



This study was partially funded by a joint grant from FCT—the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology—and from CNRST—the Moroccan National Centre for Scientific and Technology Research, CNRST—GRICESSDT/09.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Júlio Ferreira Carneiro
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mimoun Boughriba
    • 2
  • António Correia
    • 1
  • Yassine Zarhloule
    • 2
  • Abdelkrim Rimi
    • 3
  • Boubker El Houadi
    • 4
  1. 1.Geophysical Centre of ÉvoraUniversity of ÉvoraÉvoraPortugal
  2. 2.Laboratory of Hydrogeology-EnvironmentFaculty of SciencesOujdaMorocco
  3. 3.Department of Earth SciencesScientific InstituteRabatMorocco
  4. 4.Hydraulic Basin Agency of the MoulouyaOujdaMorocco

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