Environmental Earth Sciences

, Volume 59, Issue 3, pp 489–499 | Cite as

Framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide: a case study of El Berrinche

Original Article
First Online:
Received:
Accepted:

Abstract

Slope failure or landslide is a complex geological/geotechnical problem that involves much uncertainty. In this work, a framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide is presented with a focus on the El Berrinche landslide, Honduras. One unique feature of this case study involving the El Berrinche landslide is that the stability analysis has to be carried out with limited data. Another challenge in this study is to assess possible remedial measures in a way that can easily be communicated to the government and the public. A reliability-based framework for a probabilistic assessment is proposed. With this approach, different levels of risk for landslide are assessed and the associated costs are estimated; and all information is integrated into the decision-making process for choosing a remedial action.

Keywords

El Berrinche landslide Slope stability Probability of failure Remedial measures 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The first writer wishes to acknowledge the financial support provided by GeoConsult, Ltd. and Clemson University during the course of his study at Clemson University, and the assistance of Dr. Lawson Smith (deceased) and Dr. Richard Olsen of US Army Corps of Engineers in the field investigation of the El Berrinche landslide.

References

  1. Carroll C (2005) In hot water. National Geographic Magazine, August 2005Google Scholar
  2. Chowdhury R, Flentje P (2005) Role of slope reliability analysis in landslide risk management. Eng Geol 62:41–46Google Scholar
  3. Christian JT, Ladd CC, Baecher GB (1994) Reliability applied to slope stability analysis. J Geotech Eng ASCE 120(12):2180–2207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Collins BD, Znidarcic D (2004) Stability analyses of rainfall induced landslides. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 130(4):362–372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Duncan JM (2000) Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 126(4):307–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. El-Ramly H, Morgenstern NR, Cruden DM (2002) Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice. Can Geotech J NRC 39(3):665–683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Flores R, Kung G, Juang CH (2007) El Berrinche landslide. In: Proceedings first north American landslide conference, AEG, ASCE, ARMA, CGS, technical session, vol 75. Vail, Colorado, June 2007, pp 95–112 (note: R. Flores is now Raul Flores Peñalba)Google Scholar
  8. Georgiannou VN, Burland JB (2006) A laboratory study of slip surface formation in an intact natural stiff clay. Géotechnique 56(8):551–559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Greenwood JR, Norris JE, Wint J (2006) Site investigation for the effects of vegetation on ground stability. Geotech Geol Eng 24:467–481CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Griffiths DV, Fenton GA (2004) Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite element. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 130(5):507–518CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Harp EL, Hagaman KW, Held MD, McKeen JP (2002) Detailed inventory of landslides and related deposits in Honduras triggered by Hurricane Mitch. Open File Report 02-61, US Geological SurveyGoogle Scholar
  12. Harr ME (1987) Reliability-based design in civil engineering. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  13. Hsu SC, Nelson PP (2006) Material spatial variability and slope stability for weak rock masses. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 132(2):183–193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hunt R (2005) Geotechnical engineering investigation handbook, 2nd edn. Taylor & Francis, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar
  15. Janbu N (1973) Slope stability computations. In: Hirschfeld RC, Pouros SJ (eds) Embankment-Dam Engineering: Casagrande Volume. Wiley, Hoboken, pp 47–86Google Scholar
  16. Juang CH, Jhi YY, Lee DH (1998) Stability analysis of existing slopes considering uncertainty. Eng Geol 49:111–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Keefer DK (2005) Earthquake-induced landslides from 1789 BC to 2005 AD. Salt Lake City annual meeting, Salt LakeGoogle Scholar
  18. Kumar S, Hall ML (2004) Parametric study of site instability due to presence of a weakening shale layer above sloping bedrock. Geotech Geol Eng KAP 22:361–374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Li KS, Lumb P (1987) Probabilistic design of slopes. Can Geotech J 24(4):520–535CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Phoon KK, Kulhawy FH (1999) Characterization of geotechnical variability. Can Geotech J NRC 36(4):612–624CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Rahardjo H, Lee TT, Leong EC, Rezaur RB (2005) Response of a residual soil slope to rainfall. Can Geotech J NRC 42(2):340–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Roper W (2000) Remote sensing, imagery and knowledge systems. In: Proceedings 32nd UJNR wind and seismic panel meeting, NISTGoogle Scholar
  23. Sharma S (2001) XSTABL. Interactive software design, IncGoogle Scholar
  24. Smith L, Olsen R, Castañeda M, Valladares M, Flores R (2001) Geotechnical investigation of the El Berrinche landslide, Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Secretary of Natural Resources, Tegucigalpa, HondurasGoogle Scholar
  25. Spencer E (1967) A method of analysis of the stability of embankments assuming parallel inter-slice forces. Géotechnique 17(1):11–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Vanmarcke EH (1977) Reliability of earth slopes. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 103(11):1247–1265Google Scholar
  27. Viratjandr C, Michalowski RL (2006) Limit analysis of submerged slopes subjected to water drawdown. Can Geotech J 43(8):802–814CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Verlag 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Raul Flores Peñalba
    • 1
  • Zhe Luo
    • 2
  • C. Hsein Juang
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.GeoConsultAlamedaHonduras
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringClemson UniversityClemsonUSA
  3. 3.Department of Civil EngineeringNational Central UniversityJhongliTaiwan

Personalised recommendations