A reckoning algorithm for the prediction of arriving passengers for subway station networks

  • Jie XuEmail author
  • You Wu
  • Limin Jia
  • Yong Qin
Original Research


Knowing the volume of arriving passengers (APs) is fundamental for optimizing their paths through subway stations and evacuating them under emergency conditions. To predict AP volume online, we first analyze arrival and departure parameters and discuss the relationships among various parameters to determine the train a passenger will most likely take. Interconnecting stations and transfer paths among stations are considered direct connections and direct transfer connections, respectively, to define and construct traveling route sets. Then, travel time chains (TTCs) of transfer and nontransfer passengers are constructed to illustrate the possible routes and time costs between the origin and destination (O/D) stations of passengers. Furthermore, based on TTCs, train capacities and the inbound and outbound times of passengers accessed from an automated fare collection system, we predict the AP volumes at specified stations using a stage-by-stage reckoning algorithm in real time. Finally, to validate the model and the algorithm, we estimate the AP volume for the Beijing Subway network.


Arrival passenger estimation Passenger flow distribution Travel time chains (TTCs) Reckoning algorithm Subway 



This study is supported by the Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (8162034) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2017YJS086).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Rail Control and SafetyBeijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Beijing Research Center of Urban Traffic Information Sensing and Service TechnologiesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Wuhan Metro Group Co., ltdWuhanChina

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