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Salinity Biases and the Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in GFDL-CM3

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Abstract

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Meridional Freshwater Transport (Mov) at 24°N, 11°S, and 30°S, simulated with the GFDL-CM3 model under the historical (1860–2005) and RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (2006–2100) are examined. The results are compared with the climatology and observations in the search for salinity biases that would compromise the accuracy of the state of the future climate predicted by this model. The AMOC wavelet analysis shows a predominant decadal variability at 24°N, whereas the annual signal is more prominent in the South Atlantic. The Mov magnitude varies considerably among the latitudes: increasing at 24°N, rather stable at 11°S and decreasing at 30°S. Such a pattern is followed by an AMOC weakening regardless of the latitude until the end of the 21st century, indicating that a reduction in Mov in the southern South Atlantic and an increase in the North Atlantic are potential drivers of the AMOC destabilization. Both model and observations agree on the stability of the circulation, even though the model projects a stronger AMOC than the latter. Besides the AMOC weakening, a shoaling of its upper limb is also observed. Salinity biases were found mostly in the South Atlantic in the upper 1000 m of the water column, with the model results significantly deviating from the observations and climatology in the mid-Atlantic, especially at 30°S. Possible causes for the abovementioned results, including potential drivers for salinity biases are discussed.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the Graduate Program in Geophysics of the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA) for the Project PIE00005/2016 from Infrastructure FAPESB 003/2015. This study was financed partly by the Coordination of Superior Level Staff Improvement (CAPES) — Finance Code 001. We express our gratitude to the Petrobras and the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) with respect to the research project Rede de Modelagem e Observação Oceanográfica (REMO) for the infrastructure of the laboratories. We thank the Partnership for Observation of the Global Ocean (POGO) for supporting the first author’s fellowship during the WOCE A8 line and to the staff of the PROFICI/PROPCI programs at the Federal University of Bahia for reviewing of this paper.

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  1. Graduate Program in Geophysics, Geosciences Institute, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, 40170-280, Brazil

    Fernanda D. A. O. Matos

  2. Department of Earth and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, 40170-280, Brazil

    Janini Pereira

  3. GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, D-24105, Germany

    Marcus Dengler

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Matos, F.D.A.O., Pereira, J. & Dengler, M. Salinity Biases and the Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in GFDL-CM3. Ocean Sci. J. 55, 505–520 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12601-020-0040-8

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