Ocean Science Journal

, Volume 47, Issue 2, pp 123–145 | Cite as

Modelling the effect of climate change on the wave climate of the world’s oceans

  • Erik Vanem
  • Bent Natvig
  • Arne Bang Huseby


This paper analyses the trends and the future projections of significant wave height in several ocean areas at different parts of the world. It uses a stochastic Bayesian hierarchical space-time model, with a regression component with atmospheric levels of CO2 as covariates in order to estimate the expected long-term trends and make future projections towards the year 2100. The model was initially developed for an area in the North Atlantic ocean, and has been found to perform reasonably well there, and it is now investigated how the model performs for other ocean areas. 11 new ocean areas have been analysed with the model, and this paper presents the results pertaining to the estimated long-term trends and future projections of monthly maximum significant wave height for each of the 12 ocean areas.

Key words

Ocean wave climate climate change significant wave height Bayesian hierarchical space-time models atmosphereocean modelling stochastic wave model trends and projections of wave climate 


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Copyright information

© Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute (KORDI) and the Korean Society of Oceanography (KSO) and Springer Netherlands 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of MathematicsUniversity of OsloOsloNorway

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