Advertisement

Journal of Population Research

, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp 115–138 | Cite as

The impact of population dynamics and foreign labour policy on dependency: the case of Singapore

  • John Pastor AnsahEmail author
  • Crystal M. Riley
  • James P. Thompson
  • David Bruce Matchar
Article
  • 738 Downloads

Abstract

Understanding population dynamics is crucial to understanding current and future health care needs and designing systems to meet those needs. In this paper, we provide a methodological approach to investigate population dynamics in a system dynamics model configurable to initialise in dynamic equilibrium or disequilibrium. We then use the model to investigate how the current measured population compares to a population of the same size in equilibrium, and how a dependency ratio will change over time under different scenarios. We apply our approach to Singapore, which, like many other countries, has a rapidly increasing proportion of elderly in the population.

Keywords

Population Ageing Dependency ratio System dynamics Fertility rate Mortality rate Foreign labour Immigration Simulation Dynamic equilibrium 

Notes

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest

References

  1. Asher, M. G., & Nandy, A. (2008). Singapore’s policy responses to ageing, inequality and poverty: An assessment. International Social Security Review, 61(1), 41–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12, 419–455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.Google Scholar
  4. Jones, G., Straughan, P. T., & Chan, A. (2009). Ultra-low fertility in Pacific Asia Trends, causes and policy issues. London and New York: Routledge and Taylor&Francis Group.Google Scholar
  5. Leff, N. (1969). Dependency rates and savings rates. The American Economic Review, 59, 886–896.Google Scholar
  6. Mah, B. T. (2007). Why we need 6.5 million people. People’s Action Party Singapore. 29 Sept 2011. http://www.pap.org.sg/articleview.php?folder=PT&id=1758
  7. Meadows, D. L., & Robinson, J. (1985). The electronic oracle: Computer models and social decisions. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar
  8. Meadows, D. L., William, W., Behrens, I., Meadows, D. H., Naill, R. F., Randers, J., & Zahn, E. K. O. (1974). Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.Google Scholar
  9. Ministry of Manpower. (2014). Foreign workforce numbers. Retrieved 5 November, 2014. http://www.mom.gov.sg/statistics-publications/others/statistics/Pages/ForeignWorkforceNumbers.aspx
  10. Oliva, R. (1998). A Vensim ® module to calculate summary statistics for historical fit. Massachusetts: Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
  11. Prime Minister’s Office Singapore. (2010). National day rally speech (English) by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on 29 August 2010. Retrieved from Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore Government website. http://www.pmo.gov.sg/News/Speeches/Prime+Minister/National+Day+Rally+2010+Speech+%28English%29+by+PM+Lee+at+University+Cultural+Centre+NUS.htm
  12. Randers, J. (Ed.). (1980). Guidelines for model conceptualization. In Elements of the system dynamics method. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.Google Scholar
  13. Richardson, G. P., & Pugh, A. L. I. (1981). Introduction to system dynamics modeling with dynamo. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.Google Scholar
  14. Singapore Department of Statistics. (2010). Population trends.Google Scholar
  15. Singapore Department of Statistics. (2014). Key demographic indicators 2013.Google Scholar
  16. Sterman, J. D. (1984). Appropriate summary statistics for evaluating the historical fit of system dynamics midels. Dynamica, 10, 51–66.Google Scholar
  17. Theil, H. (1966). Applied economic forcasting. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
  18. World Bank. (2011). Singapore life expectancy at birth, total (years). The World Bank Data.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • John Pastor Ansah
    • 1
    Email author
  • Crystal M. Riley
    • 2
  • James P. Thompson
    • 1
  • David Bruce Matchar
    • 1
  1. 1.Duke-NUS Graduate Medical SchoolSingaporeSingapore
  2. 2.Washington UniversitySt. LouisUSA

Personalised recommendations