Do motorcycle-based ride-hailing apps threaten bus ridership? A hybrid choice modeling approach with latent variables

  • Muhammad Zudhy IrawanEmail author
  • Prawira Fajarindra Belgiawan
  • Tri Basuki Joewono
  • Nurvita I. M. Simanjuntak
Original Paper


The emergence of motorcycle-based ride-hailing services provides more transportation options to users in developing countries like Indonesia. However, many people currently believe that the availability of these new options threatens the demand for public transportation. This study aims to understand the latent factors that influence passengers to prefer bus service over motorcycle-based ride-hailing. The study includes 19 variables and applies a hybrid choice model by employing 703 bus passenger responses in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Our analysis shows three latent variables that most significantly impact the selection of bus service over motorcycle-based ride-hailing: forced bus use, bus service quality, and favorable conditions for bus use. These three variables were influential enough to outweigh the potential time and cost savings of motorcycle ride-hailing. The results also indicate that the decision of which option to use is significantly influenced by users’ age and income. Lastly, results of our analysis show that future bus service demand will depend on how much buses can improve to meet users’ needs, if they are to win the competition over transportation options that can be booked online such as motorcycle ride-hailing.


BUS Latent variables Hybrid choice model Motorcycle-based ride-hailing 



Funding was provided by the Indonesian Ministry of Research, Technology, and Higher Education.


  1. Aarhaug J, Olsen S (2018) Implications of ride-sourcing and self-driving vehicles on the need for regulation in unscheduled passenger transport. Res Transp Econ 69:573–582. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Abenoza RF, Cats O, Susilo YO (2017) Travel satisfaction with public transport: determinants, user classes, regional disparities and their evolution. Transp Res Part A 95:64–84. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Abou-Zeid M, Witter R, Bierlaire M, Kaufman V, Ben-Akiva M (2012) Happiness and travel mode switching: findings from a Swiss public transportation experiment. Transp Policy 19:93–104. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Arentze TA (2013) Adaptive personalized travel information systems: a Bayesian method to learn users’ personal preferences in multimodal transport networks. IEEE Trans Intell Transp Syst 14(4):1957–1966. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Arentze TA, Molin EJE (2013) Travelers’ preferences in multimodal networks: design and results of a comprehensive series of choice experiments. Transp Res Part A 58:15–28. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Atasoy B, Glerum A, Bierlaire M (2013) Attitudes towards mode choice in Switzerland. disP Plan Rev 49(2):101–117. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Azzuhri AA, Syarafina A, Yoga FT, Amalia R (2018) A creative, innovative, and solution transportation for Indonesia with its setbacks and how to tackle them: a case study of the phenomenal GOJEK. Rev Integr Bus Econ Res 7(1):59–67Google Scholar
  8. Bastarianto FF, Irawan MZ, Choudhury C, Palma D, Muthohar I (2019) A tour-based mode choice model for commuters in Indonesia. Sustainability 11(3):1–20. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Ben-Akiva M, McFadden D, Train K, Walker J, Bhat C, Bierlaire M, Munizaga MA (2002) Hybrid choice models: progress and challenges. Market Lett 13(3):163–175. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bierlaire M (2016) PythonBiogeme: a short introduction, report TRANSP-OR 160706 series on Biogeme, Transport and Mobility Laboratory, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar
  11. Carreira R, Patrício L, Jorge RN, Magee C (2014) Understanding the travel experience and its impact on attitudes, emotions and loyalty towards the transportation provider—a quantitative study with mid-distance bus trips. Transp Policy 31:35–46. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cats O, Abenoza RF, Liu C, Susilo YO (2019) Evolution of satisfaction with public transport and its determinants in Sweden: identifying priority areas. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2538(1):86–95. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Center Bureau of Statistics (2017) Number of motorized vehicle in Indonesia 1949–2016. Accessed 5 Jan 2019
  14. Chen Z (2015) Impact of ride-hailing services on travel habits and transportation planning. Master of Science Thesis. University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Accessed 29 Nov 2018
  15. Clewlow RR, Mishra GS (2017) Disruptive transportation: the adoption, utilization, and impacts of ridesourcing services in San Francisco. Accessed 18 Dec 2018
  16. Creemers L, Cools M, Tormans H, Lateur PJ, Janssens D, Wets G (2012) Identifying the determinants of light rail mode choice for medium- and long-distance trips: results from a stated preference study. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2275(1):30–38. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Damaini AA, Nugroho GS, Suyoto S (2018) Fraud crime mitigation of mobile application users for online transportation. Int J Interact Mob Technol 12(3):153–167. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. De Oña J, De Oña R, Eboli L, Forciniti C, Mazzulla G (2016) Transit passengers’ behavioural intentions: the influence of service quality and customer satisfaction. J Transportmetrica A Transp Sci 12(5):385–412. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Dias FF, Lavieri PS, Garikapati VM, Astroza S, Pendyala RM, Bhat CR (2017) A behavioral choice model of the use of car-sharing and ride-hailing services. Transportation 44:1307–1323. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Dirgahayani P (2013) Environmental co-benefits of public transportation improvement initiative: the case of Trans-Jogja bus system in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. J Clean Prod 58:74–81. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Dirgahayani P, Nakamura F (2012) Fostering partnerships towards sustainable urban mobility from the national to local level: Matsuyama, Japan and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Int Assoc Traffic Saf Sci 36:48–55. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Duarte A, Garcia C, Limao S, Polydoropoulou A (2009) Experienced and expected happiness in transport mode decision making process. In: Transportation research board 88th annual meeting, Washington D.CGoogle Scholar
  23. Duarte A, Garcia C, Giannarakis G, Limão S, Polydoropoulou A, Litinas N (2010) New approaches in transportation planning: happiness and transport economics. Netnomics 11:5–32. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Figler SA, Sriraj PS, Welch EW, Yavuz N (2011) Customer loyalty and Chicago, Illinois, transit authority buses: results from 2008 customer satisfaction survey. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2216:148–156. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Givoni M, Rietveld P (2007) The access journey to the railway station and its role in passengers’ satisfaction with rail travel. Transp Policy 14:357–365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Guerra E (2019) Electric vehicles, air pollution, and the motorcycle city: a stated preference survey of consumers’ willingness to adopt electric motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ 68:52–64. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hoang-Tung N, Kojima A, Kubota H (2014) Recognising customers’ patterns of bus service patronage using a loyalty framework. IATSS Res 37(2):148–156. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ilahi A, Waro AI, Sumarsono P (2015) Public transport reform in Indonesian cities. In: Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for transportation studies, vol 10. Accessed 7 July 2019
  29. Indonesian Ministry of Transportation (2015) Number of traffic accident in Indonesia. Accessed 2 Nov 2019
  30. Irawan MZ (2019) Exploring the performance of TransJogja Bus and the behavior of its passengers. In: The 5th international conference on science and technology, Yogyakarta, 30–31 July 2019Google Scholar
  31. Irawan MZ, Putri MK, Belgiawan PF, Dwitasari R (2017) Analyzing commuters’ behavior on egress trip from railway stations in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Open Transp J 11:53–66. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Irawan MZ, Belgiawan PF, Tarigan AKM, Wijanarko F (2019) To compete or not compete: exploring the relationships between motorcycle-based ride-sourcing, motorcycle taxis, and public transport in the Jakarta metropolitan area. Transportation. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Joewono TB, Kubota H (2007a) Exploring negative experiences and user loyalty in paratransit. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2034:134–142. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Joewono TB, Kubota H (2007b) User satisfaction with paratransit in competition with motorization in Indonesia: anticipation of future implications. Transportation 34:337–354. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Joewono TB, Santoso DS (2015) Service quality attributes for public transportation in Indonesian cities. J East Asia Soc Transp Stud 11:1064–1081. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Joewono TB, Santoso DS, Ramadhan HJ, Rahmadiensyah RH, Ramdhan BP, Oktano LY (2017) Identifying characteristics of BRT-lite system: learning from Trans Metro Bandung, Indonesia. J East Asia Soc Transp Stud 12:14–34. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Joewono TB, Legi SD, Tarigan AKM (2018) A longitudinal analysis of traffic-violation behaviors among two groups of motorcyclists in Bandung, Indonesia. CARS-ASEAN, Kuala Lumpur, 4–7 December 2018Google Scholar
  38. Jones A, Steinbach R, Roberts H, Goodman A, Green J (2012) Rethinking passive transport: bus fare exemptions and young people’s wellbeing. Health Place 18(3):605–612. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Kennedy CA (2002) A comparison of the sustainability of public and private transportation systems: study of the Greater Toronto Area. Transportation 29(4):459–493. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kim S, Ulfarsson G (2012) Commitment to light rail transit patronage: case study for St. Louis Metrolink. J Urban Plan Dev 138(3):227–234. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Kim J, Rasouli S, Timmermans HJP (2014) Hybrid choice models: principles and recent progress incorporating social influence and nonlinear utility functions. Procedia Environ Sci 22:20–34. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Krygsman S, Dijst M, Arentze T (2004) Multimodal public transport: an analysis of travel time elements and the interconnectivity ratio. Transp Policy 11(3):265–275. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Lai WT, Chen CF (2011) Behavioral intentions of public transit passengers—the roles of service quality, perceived value, satisfaction and involvement. Transp Policy 18(2):318–325. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Lierop DV, Badami MG, El-Geneidy AM (2018) What influences satisfaction and loyalty in public transport? A review of the literature. Transp Rev 38:52–72. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Liu CP (2017) Understanding the factors influencing public transport mode choice in Taiwan, Thesis, University College London, United Kingdom. Accessed 21 Jan 2019
  46. Manan MMA, Várhelyi A (2012) Motorcycle fatalities in Malaysia. IATSS Res 36:30–39. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Mbara TC (2016) Tuk-tuk ‘new kid on the block’ in Johannesburg: operational and user travel characteristics, competition and impacts. J Transp Supply Chain Manag 10(1):1–9. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Medeiros RM, Duarte F, Achmad F, Jalali A (2018) Merging ICT and informal transport in Jakarta’s ojek system. Transp Plan Technol 41(3):336–352. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Michie S, Van Stralen MM, West R (2011) The behavior change wheel: a new method for characterizing and designing behavior change interventions. Implement Sci 6(42):1–11. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Minser J, Webb V (2010) Quantifying the benefits: application of customer loyalty modeling in public transportation context. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2144(1):111–120. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Molin EJE, Timmermans HJP (2010) Context dependent stated choice experiments: the case of train egress mode choice. J Choice Model 3(3):39–56. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Munawar A (2018) Traffic accident analysis in the city of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In: Proceedings of the World congress on engineering 2018, vol I. Accessed 8 July 2019
  53. Munawar A, Malkamah S, Priyanto S (2009) Urban public transport reform in Indonesia, Yogyakarta Model. In: Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for transportation studies, vol 7. Accessed 23 Nov 2018
  54. Nordbakke S, Schwanen T (2015) Transport, unmet activity needs and wellbeing in later life: exploring the links. Transportation 42:1129–1151. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Parikesit D (2004) Progress of CDM project in transport sector: lessons-learned from bus replacement project, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In: Full Proceedings of CODATU XI, cooperation for urban mobility in the developing world (CODATU), Bucharest, Romania. Accessed 24 June 2019
  56. Polat C (2012) The demand determinants for urban public transport services: a review of the literature. J Appl Sci 12:1211–1231. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Purba A, Nakamura F, Tanaka S (2014) Service delivered on new transit system from users viewpoint (case study: TransJogja and Trans Musi–Indonesia). In: Proceedings of international symposium on city planning, vol 6–8. Accessed 6 Dec 2018
  58. Ramli MI, Dharmowijoyo DE (2018) Activity-travel behaviour, and daily and global well-being. In: International conference on civil, offshore & environmental engineering 2018 (ICCOEE 2018). MATEC web of conferences 203. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Ranney ML, Mello MJ, Baird JB, Chai PR, Clark MA (2010) Correlates of motorcycle helmet use among recent graduates of a motorcycle training course. Accid Anal Prev 42:2057–2062. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Rayle L, Dai D, Chan N, Cervero R, Shaheen S (2016) Just a better taxi? A survey-based comparison of taxis, transit and ridesourcing services in San Francisco. Transp Policy 45:168–178. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Rezika WY, Priyanto S, Irawan MZ (2018) Estimation urban railway demand in Yogyakarta using bivariate ordered probit model. Int Symp Transp Stud Dev Ctries. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Rietveld P (2000) The accessibility of railway stations: the role of the bicycle in The Netherlands. Transp Res Part D 5(1):71–75. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Sadowsky N, Nelson E (2017) The impact of ride-hailing services on public transportation use: a discontinuity regression analysis. Economics department working paper series. Accessed 18 Oct 2018
  64. Shaaban K, Kim I (2016) The influence of bus service satisfaction on university students’ mode choice. J Adv Transp 50:935–948. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Silalahi SL, Handayani PW, Munajat Q (2017) Service quality analysis for online transportation service: case study of GO-JEK. Procedia Comput Sci 124:487–495. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Şimşekoğlu O, Nordfjærn T, Rundmo T (2015) The role of attitudes, transport priorities, and car use habit for travel mode use and intentions to use public transportation in an urban Norwegian public. Transp Policy 42:113–120. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Soehodho S (2017) Public transportation development and traffic accident prevention in Indonesia. Int Assoc Traffic Saf Serv 40(2):76–80. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Sohail M, Maunder DAC, Cavill S (2006) Effective regulation for sustainable public transport in developing countries. Transp Policy 13(3):177–190. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Souche S (2010) Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand. Transp Policy 17(3):127–134. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Suatmadi AY, Creutzig F, Otto IM (2019) On-demand motorcycle taxis improve mobility, not sustainability. Case Stud Transp Policy 7:218–229. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Tao S, Corcoran J, Mateo-Babiano I (2017) Modelling loyalty and behavioural change intentions of busway passengers: a case study of Brisbane, Australia. IATSS Res 41:113–122. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Tarigan AKM, Susilo YO, Joewono TB (2010) Negative experiences and willingness to use paratransit in Bandung, Indonesia: an exploration with ordered-probit model. In: Transportation research board 89th annual meeting, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  73. Transistari R (2017) The use of importance performance analysis to evaluate the satisfaction level of the user of Trans Jogja Bus. J Econ 22(1):95–108. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Tuffour YA, Appiagyei DKN (2014) Motorcycle taxis in public transportation services within the Accra Metropolis. Am J Civ Eng 2:117–122. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. United Nations (2015) 17 goals to transform our world. Accessed 7 July 2019
  76. Walker J, Ben-Akiva M (2002) Generalized random utility model. Math Soc Sci 43(3):303–343. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Walle SV, Steenberghen T (2006) Space and time related determinants of public transport use in trip chains. Transp Res Part A 40(2):151–162. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Yan X, Levine J, Zhao X (2019) Integrating ridesourcing services with public transit: an evaluation of traveler responses combining revealed and stated preference data. Transp Res Part C 105:683–696. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. YSR Development Planning Agency (2016) Private vehicle ownership in YSR from 2010 to 2015. Accessed 8 Nov 2019
  80. YSR Governor Regulation No. 16/2017 (2017) Trans-Jogja bus routes. Accessed 12 Jan 2019
  81. YSR Statistics Agency (2016) Number of population in Yogyakarta Special Province. Accessed 1 Nov 2018
  82. YSR Transport Agency (2018) Annual report the performance of TransJogja Bus in 2017, YogyakartaGoogle Scholar
  83. Zhou M, Wang D, Li Q, Yue Y, Tu W, Cao R (2017) Impacts of weather on public transport ridership: result from mining data from different sources. Transp Res Part C 75:17–29. CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversitas Gadjah MadaYogyakartaIndonesia
  2. 2.School of Business and ManagementInstitut Teknologi BandungBandungIndonesia
  3. 3.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversitas Katolik ParahyanganBandungIndonesia

Personalised recommendations