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Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft

, Volume 39, Issue 1, pp 63–73 | Cite as

An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe

  • Harald Hecking
  • Christopher John
  • Florian Weiser
Article

Abstract

This study analyzes the case of a Russian gas export embargo starting in November 2014 and its effects on security of gas supply in Europe. Russian gas exports are crucial for European supply. In 2013, Russia exported more than 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe (including Turkey, excluding Belarus and the Ukraine), thereby supplying more than 30 % of European annual gas demand.

The analysis is conducted on a country level with a special focus on Germany. The study is based on a computer simulation of European pipeline, storage and LNG infrastructure utilization. We simulate different durations of an export embargo, i.e., 1 to 9 months, different availability of LNG on global markets and different use of gas storage. Technical aspects such as pipeline pressure could be another threat for security of gas supply during an embargo, but these are beyond the scope of this paper.

The results found imply that in case of a 3-month embargo supply would be secured in almost all of the European countries except for in Bulgaria, Poland, Turkey and Finland. In case of a 9-month embargo the case is different and gas supplies in Germany, Italy, France and many countries in Eastern Europe would severely be affected. In total 46 bcm of European gas demand could not be served in that case.

Keywords

Cold Spell Supply Shortfall European Importer Tiger Model Groningen Field 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Ein Embargo auf russisches Erdgas und seine Auswirkungen auf die Versorgungssicherheit in Europa

Zusammenfassung

Dieses Papier untersucht die Auswirkungen eines russischen Gasembargos auf die Versorgungssicherheit für Erdgas in Europa. Die Studie hat das Ziel, je nach Land mögliche Lieferengpässe zu quantifizieren. Ein besonderer Fokus wird auf die Situation in Deutschland gelegt. Für die Analyse werden verschiedene Szenarien betrachtet, welche sich in der Dauer des Embargos (ein bis neun Monate), in den Speicherfüllständen für den ersten Winter nach der Krise (d. h. am 1.11.2015) und in verschiedenen Mengen an im Krisenfall zusätzlich verfügbarem Flüssiggas (25, 45, 65 bcm) unterscheiden.

Die vorliegende Untersuchung ist eine Simulationsstudie und wurde mit dem Optimierungsmodell TIGER durchgeführt. TIGER ist ein lineares Modell des Europäischen Gasmarktes und berücksichtigt alle Pipelines des Europäischen Fernleitungsnetzes, die Gasspeicher sowie LNG-Terminals. TIGER errechnet in tagesscharfer Auflösung, wo welche Mengen an Gas produziert, transportiert und importiert werden müssen, um den täglichen Gasbedarf in 58 Nachfrageregionen zu bedienen.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Christian Growitsch for suggesting the topic to us. We are grateful to Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Christian Growitsch, Felix Höffler and Timo Panke who provided helpful comments. Furthermore, we like to thank Maria Novikova and Broghan Helgeson for their research assistance. All remaining shortcomings are the authors’ own responsibility.

Supplementary material

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Copyright information

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Harald Hecking
    • 1
  • Christopher John
    • 1
  • Florian Weiser
    • 1
  1. 1.Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln (EWI)KölnGermany

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