El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Its Impacts on Local Climate and Sugarcane Yield in Brazil
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Faced with the great interference of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into the local climate of a given site in conjunction with agricultural systems, the current study aimed at assessing the effects of ENSO on thermal and water regimes at different Brazilian sites, as well as its impacts on sugarcane crop yield. The DSSAT CSM-CANEGRO model, parameterized under the Brazilian environmental conditions, was used to simulate sugarcane yield at four sites of different Brazilian states from 1979 to 2010 for three types of soils and two types of simulations, Seasonal and Sequence. The outcomes obtained herein pointed out that ENSO events distinctly impinged upon meteorological variables regime; however, a clear trend as to the air temperature, global solar radiation and rainfall regimes could not be noticed owing to a large variability found in the current study. With regard to sugarcane yield, some trends were observed. In Jataí, GO, no changes greater than ± 1 t ha−1 occurred. In João Pessoa, PB, there was a trend of lower yields during El Niño and La Niña years and higher yields during neutral years. Moreover, a contrasting scenario was envisioned in Piracicaba, SP, and Londrina, PR, where yields tended to be higher than historical average under both El Niño and La Niña events, while during neutral years, yield tended to be smaller than average.
KeywordsENSO Air temperature Global solar radiation Rainfall Yield Saccharum officinarum L.
Authors are very grateful to the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) for some funds provided, as well as to the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and National Agency of Water (ANA) for the concession of weather data that made this study possible. Special thanks are also devoted to the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Brazil, for the productivity fellowship in research bestowed to the first author of the current manuscript.
PCS and ABP were both responsible for designing the study, preparing the dataset, analyzing the data, discussing the results and writing the manuscript.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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