Journal of Pharmaceutical Innovation

, Volume 4, Issue 3, pp 96–106 | Cite as

Balancing Risk and Costs to Optimize the Clinical Supply Chain—A Step Beyond Simulation

  • Chedia Abdelkafi
  • Benoît H. L. Beck
  • Benoit David
  • Cédric Druck
  • Mitchell Horoho
Case Report


With increasing pressure to accelerate drug development and minimize associated costs, it has become critical for pharmaceutical companies to optimize the clinical supply chain. Various tools have been developed to improve forecasts of medication requirements, some of them based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques. In this paper, we describe an innovative approach that goes beyond simulating trials with a priori supply strategies. This approach optimizes the supply plan by balancing the various costs against the risk of running out of medication and utilizes the Bayesian principle to reevaluate supply strategies over time. Supporting methodologies and processes, key to a successful implementation, are also emphasized.


Clinical supply chain optimization Bayesian Decision modeling Monte Carlo Simulation Cost Risk 


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Copyright information

© International Society for Pharmaceutical Engineering 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chedia Abdelkafi
    • 1
  • Benoît H. L. Beck
    • 2
  • Benoit David
    • 3
  • Cédric Druck
    • 5
  • Mitchell Horoho
    • 4
  1. 1.Clinical Supplies SolutionsN-SIDE LLCPhiladelphiaUSA
  2. 2.Quantitative Modeling and Decision SciencesAXIOSIS, sprlBousvalBelgium
  3. 3.Operations Research Consulting, N-SIDE SALouvain-La-NeuveBelgium
  4. 4.Clinical Trial Materials Services, Eli Lilly and CompanyLilly Corporate CenterIndianapolisUSA
  5. 5.Clinical Supplies SolutionsN-SIDE SALouvain-La-NeuveBelgium

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