Economic Botany

, Volume 66, Issue 4, pp 383–397 | Cite as

Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Non-timber Forest Product Provision in Benin, West Africa: Linking Niche-based Modeling with Ecosystem Service Values

  • Jonathan Heubes
  • Katja Heubach
  • Marco Schmidt
  • Rüdiger Wittig
  • Georg Zizka
  • Ernst-August Nuppenau
  • Karen Hahn
Article

Impact of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Non-timber Forest Product Provision in Benin, West Africa: Linking Niche-based Modeling with Ecosystem Service Values. Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) make a major contribution to the livelihoods of the West African population. However, these ecosystem services are threatened by climate and land use change. Our study aims at 1) the quantification and monetary mapping of important NTFPs, and 2) developing a novel approach to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on the economic benefits derived from these NTFPs. We performed household interviews in northern Benin to gather data on annual quantities of collected NTFPs from the three most important savanna tree species: Adansonia digitata, Parkia biglobosa, and Vitellaria paradoxa. Current market prices of the NTFPs were derived from local markets. We assessed the species’ current and future (2050) occurrence probabilities by calibrating niche-based models with climate and land use data at a 0.1° resolution (cell: ~10 × 10 km). To assess future economic gains and losses, respectively, we linked modeled species’ occurrence probabilities with the spatially assigned monetary values. Highest current annual benefits are obtained from V. paradoxa (USD 54,111 ± 28,126/cell), followed by P. biglobosa (USD 32,246 ± 16,526/cell) and A. digitata (USD 9,514 ± 6,243/cell). The future simulations showed spatially varying impacts of environmental change. In particular A. digitata might benefit in some regions. However, large areas are projected to lose up to 50 % of their current economic value by 2050 with regard to the three species. Our findings provide a first benchmark for local policy-makers to economically compare different land use options and adjust existing management strategies.

Key Words

Benin climate envelope models ecosystem service mapping species distribution modeling rural livelihoods 

L’impact du changement climatique et l’aménagement du territoire sur les produits forestiers non ligneux en Benin, Afrique de l’Ouest : Combiner niche-based modeling aux valeurs des services écosystémiques. Les produits forestiers non ligneux (NTFPs) apportent une contribution essentielle au niveau des moyens de subsistance des populations de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Toutefois, ces services écosystémiques sont menacés par le changement climatique et l’aménagement du territoire. Notre étude vise 1) la quantification et la cartographie monétaire des NTFPs importants et 2) à développer une approche novatrice pour évaluer l’impact du changement climatique et l’aménagement du territoire sur les bénéfices économiques dérivés des NTFPs. Notre étude se base sur des données collectées dans des enquêtes réalisées dans des ménages ruraux au nord du Bénin et visant à analyser les quantités annuelles des NTFPs récoltés, et ceci pour les trois espèces d’arbres de savanes les plus importantes: Vitellaria paradoxa, Parkia biglobosa and Adansonia digitata. Les prix du marché courants des NTFPs étaient déduits des marchés locaux. Nous avons évalué les probabilités d’occurrence actuelles et futures (2050) des espèces en calibrant les modèles niche-basés avec les données climatiques et sur l’utilisation des terres, en travaillant avec une résolution de 0.1° (cellule: ~10 × 10 km). Pour évaluer les gains respectivement les pertes économiques futures, nous avons combiné les probabilités d’occurrence des espèces avec leur valeur monétaire attribuée, calculée sur l’espace. Les bénéfices économiques annuels le plus importants sont réalisés avec V. paradoxa (USD 54,111 ± 28,126/cellule), suivi de P. biglobosa (USD 32,246 ± 16,526/cellule) et A. digitata (USD 9,514 ± 6,243/cellule). Les futures simulations ont montré que les impacts de changement environnemental vont être spatialement variés. En particulier le baobab peut profiter dans quelques régions. Cependant, selon les pronostiques des vastes zones auront perdu jusqu’à 50 pour cent de leur valeur économique en 2050 pour les trois espèces. Nos résultats mettent a la disposition des décideurs locaux un indice de référence pour permettre une comparaison des diverses options d’utilisation des terres selon des critères économiques et ensuite ajuster les stratégies de gestion existantes, dans le but de parvenir à une utilisation des terres écologiquement et économiquement durable.

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Copyright information

© The New York Botanical Garden 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jonathan Heubes
    • 1
    • 2
  • Katja Heubach
    • 1
    • 2
  • Marco Schmidt
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Rüdiger Wittig
    • 1
    • 2
  • Georg Zizka
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Ernst-August Nuppenau
    • 4
  • Karen Hahn
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (LOEWE BiK-F)Frankfurt/MainGermany
  2. 2.Institute of Ecology, Evolution and DiversityJ.W. Goethe-UniversityFrankfurt/MainGermany
  3. 3.Department of Botany and Molecular EvolutionSenckenberg Research InstituteFrankfurt/MainGermany
  4. 4.Agricultural and Environmental PolicyInstitute for Agricultural Policy and Market ResearchGießenGermany

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