Short-term Forecast Model of Apartment Jeonse Prices using Search Frequencies of News Article Keywords
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Housing prices, including Jeonse prices, are impacted by human psychological attitudes. News articles are one of the factors that influence such human psychological attitudes. Previous studies have confirmed the potential for utilization of news articles in the analysis of the real estate market. However, no actual studies on real estate price forecasting through news articles have yet been carried out. Accordingly, the present study proposes a short-term forecast model of apartment Jeonse prices through big data analysis of news articles. The forecast model was a regression model using Jeonse prices for apartments in the Pangyo area as the dependent variable and the Internet search frequency of news article keywords as the independent variable. The news article-based forecast model was created from the independent variable made as a combination of 4 keywords with a time shift of 10 months. Comparison with time-series models frequently used for real estate price forecasting showed that the model was superior in terms of forecast accuracy and forecast lead time. It is expected that use of the news article-based forecast model according to the present study will allow for the establishment of more effective Jeonse price-related policies.
Keywordsbig data news articles forecasting model lease price apartment
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This work was supported by an Inha University Research Grant.
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