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The Use of a Multiple Risk Level Model to Tackle the Duration of Risk for Construction Activity

  • Hsien-Kuan Chang
  • Wen-der YuEmail author
  • Shao-Tsai Cheng
  • Tao-Ming Cheng
Construction Management
  • 1 Downloads

Abstract

The project evaluation and review technique (PERT) is the most well-known method to handle the risk due to uncertain activity durations, previous studies show that the β-distribution-based PERT estimation tends to be over-optimistic and it offers no control of the project in terms of risk duration. This study proposes a multiple risk-level (MRL) model that uses a site spatial constraint, environmental effects and the “5 Ms” of construction management to tackle the duration of risk during a construction project. A Risk-based Critical Path Scheduling Method (R-CPSM) that uses MRL is developed to calculate the duration of the project. A case study using a project selected from a previous study is used to compare the four estimation methods: two traditional PERT methods (3.2σs and 6σs), a Monte Carlo Simulation and the proposed MRL model. The results show that, compared with traditional approaches to estimate durations of uncertain activity, the proposed R-CPSM method is more systematic that can be combined with a cost estimation process and offers a rectification mechanism that dynamically monitors and adjusts the important factors that affect the risk duration. This method gives a more realistic estimate that is in agreement with the results of previous studies.

Keywords

PERT duration of risk project scheduling critical path method risk breakdown structure 

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Copyright information

© Korean Society of Civil Engineers 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hsien-Kuan Chang
    • 1
  • Wen-der Yu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Shao-Tsai Cheng
    • 2
  • Tao-Ming Cheng
    • 1
  1. 1.Dept. of Construction EngineeringChaoyang University of TechnologyTaichungTaiwan, Republic of China
  2. 2.Dept. of Construction ManagementChung Hua UniversityHsinchuTaiwan, Republic of China

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