Human Nature

, Volume 24, Issue 1, pp 33–58 | Cite as

Risk, Uncertainty, and Violence in Eastern Africa

A Regional Comparison
  • Carol R. Ember
  • Teferi Abate Adem
  • Ian Skoggard
Article

Abstract

Previous research on warfare in a worldwide sample of societies by Ember and Ember (Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36, 242–262, 1992a) found a strong relationship between resource unpredictability (particularly food scarcity caused by natural disasters) in nonstate, nonpacified societies and overall warfare frequency. Focusing on eastern Africa, a region frequently plagued with subsistence uncertainty as well as violence, this paper explores the relationships between resource problems, including resource unpredictability, chronic scarcity, and warfare frequencies. It also examines whether resource scarcity predicts more resource-taking in land, movable property, and people, as well as the commission of atrocities. Results support previous worldwide results regarding the relationship between resource unpredictability and warfare frequency. Results regarding resource-taking and atrocities are more nuanced and complex. In almost all findings, relationships are generally in opposite directions in nonstate and state societies. In post-hoc analyses, atrocities are significantly more likely to be committed in states than in nonstates.

Keywords

Warfare Resource unpredictability Resource scarcity Eastern Africa Resource-taking Atrocities 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carol R. Ember
    • 1
  • Teferi Abate Adem
    • 1
  • Ian Skoggard
    • 1
  1. 1.Human Relations Area Files, Yale UniversityNew HavenUSA

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