Clinical and Translational Oncology

, Volume 16, Issue 8, pp 714–724

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models

  • J. Ribes
  • L. Esteban
  • R. Clèries
  • J. Galceran
  • R. Marcos-Gragera
  • R. Gispert
  • A. Ameijide
  • M. L. Vilardell
  • J. Borras
  • A. Puigdefabregas
  • M. Buxó
  • A. Freitas
  • A. Izquierdo
  • J. M. Borras
Research Article

Abstract

Purpose

To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010–2020.

Methods/patients

Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models.

Results

There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010–2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes.

Conclusion

The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

Keywords

Cancer Incidence Mortality Projections Cancer risk Ageing 

Supplementary material

12094_2013_1140_MOESM1_ESM.doc (226 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 225 kb)

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Copyright information

© Federación de Sociedades Españolas de Oncología (FESEO) 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • J. Ribes
    • 1
    • 2
  • L. Esteban
    • 1
  • R. Clèries
    • 1
    • 2
  • J. Galceran
    • 3
  • R. Marcos-Gragera
    • 5
    • 6
    • 7
  • R. Gispert
    • 8
  • A. Ameijide
    • 3
  • M. L. Vilardell
    • 5
    • 6
  • J. Borras
    • 3
    • 4
  • A. Puigdefabregas
    • 8
  • M. Buxó
    • 5
    • 6
    • 7
  • A. Freitas
    • 8
  • A. Izquierdo
    • 5
    • 6
  • J. M. Borras
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Registre del Càncer de Catalunya, Pla Director d’Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i ReynalsBarcelonaSpain
  2. 2.Departament de Ciències ClíniquesUniversitat de BarcelonaBarcelonaSpain
  3. 3.Registre de Càncer de TarragonaFundació Lliga per a la Investigació i Prevenció del CàncerReusSpain
  4. 4.Departament de Medicina i CirurgiaUniversitat Rovira i VirgiliReusSpain
  5. 5.Unitat d’Epidemiologia i Registre del Càncer de Girona (UERGG)Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Girona Josep Trueta (IDIBGI)GironaSpain
  6. 6.Institut Català d’Oncologia (ICO)GironaSpain
  7. 7.Departament d’InfermeriaUniversitat de Girona (UdG)GironaSpain
  8. 8.Departament de Salut (GENCAT)Registre de Mortalitat, Servei d’Informació i EstudisBarcelonaSpain

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