Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences

, Volume 10, Issue 1, pp 57–74 | Cite as

What comes first, residential or commercial development? Measuring the causal links for a Canadian city over a century

  • Jean Dubé
  • Charles-David Babin
  • Jean-Christophe Dubé
  • Hemza Lekkat
  • Alexandre Potvin
  • Olivier Ringue
Original Paper


Does new residential development cause new commercial development, or does the inverse hold true? Are residential and commercial developments dependent on each other? This paper investigates the causal links between residential and commercial development for a given city. Using information on assessment roles, a backward construction of the city of Montmagny, a small-medium city located in the province of Québec (Canada), is conducted to build time-series data of construction of new buildings and the Granger causality test is performed for the city. The results for the period ranging from 1900–2014 underline the important role played by residential constructions in the expansion of the city under study.


Local development Spatial microdata Granger causality Vector autoregressive model 

JEL Classification

C21 R11 R12 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.École supérieure d’aménagement du territoire et de développement régional (ÉSAD)Université LavalQuébecCanada

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