Advertisement

Life Expectancy in Developed Countries is Higher Than Conventionally Estimated. Implications from Improved Measurement of Human Longevity

  • Dalkhat M. Ediev
Article

Abstract

Both the centuries-long tradition of conventional lifespan indicators and the more recent criticism to them ignore the true exposures of individuals to prevailing mortality levels. These exposures form a genuine part of a more comprehensive picture of the prevailing mortality conditions. In low-mortality countries, our estimated duration of human life exceeds the conventional estimates by 15 years. Our theory implies that mortality dynamics are characterised by a considerable inertia. This is used to develop new methods of forecasting, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future mortality.

Keywords

Longevity Life table Mortality Life expectancy Tempo effect 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Various aspects of the approach were discussed at the European Population Conference 2010, at several meetings of the Tempo-Effect Interest Group/TEIG at Vienna Institute of Demography, the Tempo Working Group at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, workshops of the Population Research Institute at Nihon University (Tokyo) and the Center of Demographic Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. I thank S. Scherbov, J. Goldstein and M. Guillot for comments.

References

  1. Bengtsson, T. (Ed.). (2006). Perspectives of mortality forecasting. III. The linear rise in life expectancy: history and prospects. Swedish Social Insurance Agency.Google Scholar
  2. Bongaarts, J. (2005). Long-range trends in adult mortality: models and projection methods. Demography, 42, 23–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (2002). How long do we live? Population and Development Review, 28, 13–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (2003). Estimating mean lifetime. PNAS, 100, 13127–13133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brouard, N. (1986). Structure et dynamique des populations. la pyramide des ann´ees`a vivre, aspects nationaux et exemples r´egionaux. [Population structure and dynamics. The later life pyramid, national aspects and regional examples]. Espaces, Populations, Sociétés, 2, 157–168.Google Scholar
  6. Canudas-Romo, V. (2008). The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis. Demographic Research, 19(30), 1179–1204. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol19/30/19-30.pdf.Google Scholar
  7. Chiang, C. L. (1984). Life table and its applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing.Google Scholar
  8. Council of the European Union (2009). Dealing with the impact of an ageing population in the EU (2009 Ageing Report). http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/09/st09/st09200.en09.pdf.
  9. Ediev, D. M. (2008). On the theory of distortions of period estimates of the quantum caused by the tempo changes. Vienna Institute of Demography, European Demographic Research Paper. http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/edrp_3_08.pdf.
  10. Engelman, M., Canudas-Romo, V., & Agree, E. M. (2010). The implications of increased survivorship for mortality variation in aging populations. Population and Development Review, 36, 511–539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. The New England Journal of Medicine, 303(3), 130–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Goldstein, J. R. (2006). Found in translation? A cohort perspective on tempo-adjusted life expectancy. Demographic Research, 14(5), 71–84. www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol14/5/14-5.pdf.Google Scholar
  13. Graunt, J. (1661). Essay on the Bills of mortality.Google Scholar
  14. Guillot, M. (1999). The period average life. Paper presented at the PAA meeting, New York City.Google Scholar
  15. Guillot, M. (2003). The cross-sectional average length of life: a cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts. Population Studies, 57, 41–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Guillot, M. (2006). Tempo effects in mortality: an appraisal. Demographic Research, 14, 1-26. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/1/14-1.pdf.Google Scholar
  17. Kaneko, R. (2007). Population prospects for the lowest fertility with the longest life: the new official population projections for Japan and their life course approaches. Work session on demographic projections (pp. 177-194). Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.Google Scholar
  18. Kannisto, V. (2000). Measuring the compression of mortality. Demographic Research, 3(6), 24. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol3/6/3-6.pdf.
  19. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2008). The coming acceleration of global population ageing. Nature, 451, 716–719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Luy, M. (2006). Mortality tempo-adjustment: an empirical application. Demographic Research, 15, 561-590. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/21/.Google Scholar
  21. Mamolo, M., & Scherbov, S. (2009). Population projections for forty-four European countries: The ongoing population ageing. Vienna Institute of Demography, European Demographic Research Paper. http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/edrp_2_09.pdf.
  22. Oeppen, J., & Vaupel, J. W. (2002). Broken limits to life expectancy. Science, 296, 1029–1031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Olshansky, S. J., Carnes, B. A., & Brody, J. (2002). A biodemographic interpretation of life span. Population and Development Review, 28, 501–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Olshansky, S. J., Carnes, B. A., & Mandell, M. S. (2009). Future trends in human longevity: implications for investments, pensions and the global economy. Pensions: An International Journal, 14, 149–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Robine, J.-M., Crimmins, E. M., Horiuchi, S., & Zeng, Y. (Eds.). (2006). Human longevity, individual life duration, and the growth of the oldest-old population. Springer.Google Scholar
  26. Rodriguez, G. (2006). Demographic translation and tempo effects: an accelerated failure time perspective. Demographic Research, 14, 85-110. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/6/.
  27. Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2004). Putting Oeppen and Vaupel to work: On the road to new stochastic mortality forecasts. IIASA Interim Report. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-04-049.pdf.
  28. Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2005). Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age. Nature, 435, 811–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Thatcher, A. R., Cheung, S. L. K., Horiuchi, Sh., & Robine, J.-M. (2010). The compression of deaths above the mode. Demographic Research, 22(17), 505–538. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/17/22-17.pdf.
  30. Tuljapurkar, Sh, Li, N., & Boe, C. (2000). A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature, 405, 789–792.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Tuljapurkar, Sh., & Edwards, R. D. (2011). Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality. Demographic Research, 24(21), 497–526. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol24/21/24-21.pdf.
  32. United Nations (2009). http://data.un.org/.
  33. Univ. of California, Berkeley (USA) & Max Planck Inst. for Dem. Res. (Germany) (2010). Human mortality database. www.mortality.org; www.humanmortality.de.
  34. US Census Bureau, International Data Base (2009). http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.php.
  35. Vaupel, J. W. (2010). Biodemography of human ageing. Nature, 464, 536–542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Wachter, K. (2005). Tempo and its tribulations. Demographic Research, 13, 201–222. http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/9/.Google Scholar
  37. White, K. M. (2002). Longevity Advances in High-Income Countries: 1955–96. Population and Development Review, 28, 59–76.Google Scholar
  38. Wilmoth, J. R. (1998). The future of human longevity: a demographer’s perspective. Science, 280, 395–397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Wilmoth, J. R. (2005). On the relationship between the period and cohort mortality. Demographic Research, 13, 231-280. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol13/11/.Google Scholar
  40. Wilmoth, J. R., & Horiuchi, Sh. (1999). Rectangularization revisited: variability of age at death within human populations. Demography, 36, 475–495.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Vienna Institute of DemographyAustrian Academy of SciencesViennaAustria

Personalised recommendations