Energy Efficiency

, Volume 12, Issue 7, pp 1921–1935 | Cite as

Energy demand projection based on consumption habits in the residential sector

  • Adriana VegaEmail author
  • Francisco Santamaria
  • Edwin Rivas
Original Article


This paper analyses the behaviour of the demand curve in the residential sector from Bogotá, Colombia, based on changes in the electric energy consumption behaviour of users. Initially, a survey divided in analysis units focused on obtaining the main characteristics of residential energy consumption was conducted. Using this information, a stochastic model was designed and developed in order to determine how changes in consumption habits during specific periods of the day influence the demand projection for a residential sector. A base scenario for the users of the selected population group was established from measurements in 18 houses and in the common point of a building, and the average energy consumed was 168.86 kWh/month. Through simulations using a system dynamics software, 12 scenarios were established. Consumption habits of users were modified in relation with periods and appliances, concluding that it is necessary to apply a set of strategies to encourage actions for changing the consumption habits of residential users, which has to be provided by government policies relevant to the energy area.


Energy consumption and behaviour Energy scenarios Stochastic model Change in consumption habits 



The authors would like to acknowledge to the Universidad Distrital Francisco Jose de Caldas and GCEM Research Group, which made this study possible.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Engineering Doctorate Program, Research Group GCEMUniversidad Distrital Francisco José de CaldasBogotáColombia

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