Energy Efficiency

, Volume 6, Issue 2, pp 341–368 | Cite as

Linking historic developments and future scenarios of industrial energy use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040

  • Deger Saygin
  • Wouter Wetzels
  • Ernst Worrell
  • Martin K. Patel
Original Article


Monitoring energy efficiency improvements is essential for policy evaluation and for future policy making. We estimate the annual energy efficiency improvements achieved in six Dutch industry sectors between 1993 and 2008 by using a bottom-up model. This model incorporates the production data and specific energy consumption values of 122 products. We estimate annual energy efficiency improvements of 1.0 % per annum (p.a.) for the total industry (excluding non-energy use); even though the results are subject to uncertainties due to errors in the energy statistics, we consider them as strong indication that Dutch industry needs to reinforce its efforts in energy efficiency. Based on historical achievements between 1989 and 2008, Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios project annual improvement potentials of 0.6–1.8 % p.a. until 2040. Based on literature review, this study estimates that implementing energy saving technologies can accelerate energy efficiency improvements to 2 % p.a. and beyond. Efficient combined heat and power technologies could increase these potentials further. These are beyond the historical achievements and BaU scenario projections. New policies will be required for technology development which ensures continuous energy efficiency improvements. The findings of this paper need to be extended by continuous monitoring and more scenario analyses with improved data.


Industrial energy use Annual energy efficiency improvements Energy-efficient technologies Energy policy 



This work was funded by Agentschap NL. The empirical part of this research was partly executed at the CEREM at Statistics Netherlands. The views expressed in this report, however, are those of authors. We gratefully acknowledge the valuable discussions with Mr. Laurent Minere and Mr. Christiaan Abeelen (Agentschap NL), Mr. Hans Pouwelse (Statistics Netherlands) and Mr. Lex Roes (Utrecht University).

Supplementary material

12053_2012_9172_MOESM1_ESM.doc (1.5 mb)
ESM 1 (DOC 1.45 mb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Deger Saygin
    • 1
  • Wouter Wetzels
    • 2
  • Ernst Worrell
    • 1
  • Martin K. Patel
    • 1
  1. 1.Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtthe Netherlands
  2. 2.Unit Policy StudiesEnergy Research Centre of the NetherlandsPettenthe Netherlands

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